Australian dollar steady as peace reigns in the Middle East

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

by Chris Becker

Well, at least for the rest of the week. The easing off of tensions between Iran and the US has seen a flop in oil prices, but no commensurate move in the commodity proxy Australia dollar, even as other undollar assets like gold, Yen and Bitcoin stumble.

This morning’s release of the latest trade balance figures haven’t pushed the Pacific Peso around, nor the relief rally on the ASX200 which is up 1% going into the afternoon session:

Price remains anchored within a tight range between 68.60 and 68.90 with momentum about to crossover after a period of extreme selling = harbinger of a swing play higher.

Put these moves need to be placed into context since the weekly chart shows the recent blip rally higher which failed to get near the overhead resistance level at the 70 handle:

The AUDNZD cross is also still below the 2019 low (black horizontal line) and is still signalling a rate cut come the return of the RBA in February as the fallout from the ongoing bushfire crisis continues to weigh on the economy:

A quick look at gold but this timed priced in AUD where it’s fallen back below the 2019 record high after yesterday’s epic move higher:

With tomorrow night’s NFP (unemployment rate in the US) the current status quo for the Aussie dollar is just that – a holding pattern until the next signal. But the overall dominant trend remains down.

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