Earlier this year, the Morrison Government announced that is would cut Australia’s non-humanitarian permanent migrant intake by 30,000 to 160,000 in order to “restrain population growth pressures in Sydney and Melbourne in particular”.
However, while the non-humanitarian permanent migrant intake has been cut, net overseas migration (NOM) and net long-term arrivals continue to balloon, running near all-time highs:
The disconnect between NOM and the reduced permanent migrant intake is explained by ballooning numbers of temporary migrants, whose numbers hit an all-time high 2.33 million in September 2019, up 640,000 over seven years:
Therefore, one in every eleven residents in Australia as at September 2019 was a temporary migrant.
As expected, this surge in temporary visas has been driven by international students, which hit an all-time high 634,000 as at September, up 292,000 over seven years:
The rest of the increase in temporary visas has been driven mostly by visitors and bridging visas, whose numbers increased by 146,000 and 117,000 respectively since 2012:
Interestingly, temporary visa numbers are projected by the federal government to balloon even further, given the April federal budget forecast rising NOM over the forward estimates:
And with the high NOM will come massive population growth for New South Wales (read Sydney) and Victoria (read Melbourne) of around 600,000 and 650,000 respectively:
Combined, both states are projected to add around three Canberra’s worth of population over the next four years.
Clearly then, “population growth pressures in Sydney and Melbourne” will continue to worsen, despite the Morrison Government’s rhetoric about cutting immigration.
