Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Trump revs up tax cuts 2.0

Another rough day here on Asian stock markets with some fluctuation in USD weakness as the upcoming December 15 China tariffs are seeming to firm. A big spike in the offshore Yuan – up to a month high 7.07 level – plus a firmer Yen is keeping risk taking at bay, although European futures are looking up.

The Shanghai Composite has slipped some 0.25% not helped by the weaker Yuan and closing below the 2900 point level again at 2878 points. The Hang Seng Index has fallen over 1% and confirming its recent breakdown, closing at 26082 points:

Japanese share markets continue to tumble in line with the risk proxy USDJPY pair, with the Nikkei 225 closing over 1% lower to 23135 points, only just clinging above daily support at the 23000 level. The USDJPY pair had a see saw session to remain rooted at the mid 108 level and is looking ripe for another breakdown tonight:

The ASX200 was again the biggest loser, down 1.6% to 6606 points, wiping out almost all of two months gains in only a few short days. The Aussie dollar has reversed on the weaker GDP print after hitting the 68.60 level overnight, now struggling to maintain itself above the 68 handle:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are stalled here with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing another small bounceback is still possible tonight as momentum remains in full oversold mode, so a swing higher back above the high moving average is possible but unlikely:

The economic calendar includes the Canadian central bank interest rate meeting and the November ISM services print from the US.

Comments

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Here in Victoria I find myself thinking back to the days Jeff Kennett used to tell anyone who would listen that the moment they sold the old SECV, and privatised it off then power bills would fall, and the customer service (which i always found OK with the SEC) would improve exponentially with all the ‘flexibility’ customers would have to choose from. Then there was all those country towns where there would be an SEC guy and an apprentice (because they used to do apprenticeships), where whenever something did happen you could be sure they would be out an on it pretty quick.

        That chart shows the size of the ream.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Sigh.

          But as one of the few dumb convincable idiots actually paying attention to what pollies said back then, it was oh so believable. Then.

          I was 10ish. Forgive me.

          I just can’t comprehend how they can keep rolling that same tired old horsedoodoo out time after time. These days.

          Oh. Wait… the electorate doesn’t even pretend to care anymore. That’s how. There’s no ‘i’ in vote. But there is an ‘all i’ in Liberal.

        • To be fair Jeff was out of power in 1999, the two lines touch in 2001 and the chart only goes ballistic from 2008.
          Not saying he didn’t put in the preconditions for the surge that came later, but to blame Jeff only for something that happened well after he left office and not anyone else that came along subsequently requires a fair bit in the proof department. Especially as for the early surge 2008-11 Vic and Federal governments were both Labor, and whatever they did in response (anything?) would appear to have been inadequate.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Well it’s not like he mentioned Hayek or Menses. Or Hayek’s preferred structures for asset inflation.

          [sic]

          • All..yes all… instantiations of post-modern economic theory… are inherently matrixed to Bogossavians laughble seminal thesis…which you will recall proposes that cross correlations of semi-Hegelian pseudo-neo-post structuralism with the intersection of the quasi-solid material Rogossofskian hyper-refutation first postulated by Hayek are equally valid across the spectrum of economic solution domains.

            As any fule kno if you’ve read anything about economics..

            – skip

        • JohnR …

          I think the whole PG&E U.S. experience splains a lot of things E.g. best business practices thingy … all driven by bonus incentives and investor demand. But hay the libertarians should be happy no force was used, sorry about your carbonized property tho.

    • The same willfully blind Government that kisses itself in the mirror as the country burns…. literally.

    • You might also ask what kind of country wants to let ‘non violent’ criminals free because “No person should ever sit behind bars because their skin is dark or their pockets are empty,” hmm I thought they were behind bars cos they broke the law in a serious way. Or a country that wants to open borders to the whole world then somehow provide free healthcare for all. Eventually one of these power hungry nutjobs will get elected in the US and in Aus and then god help us all. Maybe the goal is to cull the population for the good of the ‘climate’

      • Nuclear is not affordable. It’s massively expensive. It is slightly better value if you have a huge concentrated population and not a lot of other energy supplies (eg Japan).

        • Help me A2 – I know we’d currently struggle to staff a facility – we’d probably have to import them like everything else. But where’s the data on costs of Nuclear?

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          And a 45-story tall radiation-absorbing lizard. To act as an on-demand energy source when it’s not raining, windy or sunny. And when the uranium’s not glowing.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Go back and have a read of some of the posts about how Australia’s energy supply was essentially predicated on cheap coal to provide base load, and in the eastern states gas to provide the demand flexibility to cope with surges in demand.

        The decision to eliminate the gas scope for meeting demand surges of summer because we decided to stick a white hot poker up our backside with a gas ‘market’ and allow ‘exports’ (to a now glutted global market) off the back of white elephant investment which enabled global players to amortize their investment while sucking out the gas from SE Australia for loss leading export purposes – and leaving communities hostage to agreeing to fracking for more gas – is a far bigger factor in the energy price rise than anything to do with solar or wind, and the need to manage the variability in supply.

        Then of course we get to all those privatised retailers – who purchased what were once government owned electricity generation and distribution monopolies – and have since gold plated and amortized their way demonstrating that private sector monopolies are even less conscious of consumers than large government owned outfits doing the same, and the dawning of the possibility that maybe pumping billions of tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere does have a downside vis the weather and climate (notwithstanding politicians coming into parliament with lumps of coal for show and tell) and the subsequent reticence to build anything remotely new to sustain demand for a nation running the world’s pre eminent population ponzi for GDP juicing purposes – and we are now in a position where the base load is looking pretty threadbare and the surge capacity is eyeglazingly expensive. No wonder people are buying roof panels and looking at battery lifespan as an alternative.

        Anyone seriously thinking wind and solar are to ‘blame’ – when they need to be worked into the answer – probably needs to think it over some more. When you have oligarchs stating they will invest in solar on a mega scale to service Singapore but the country they are in cannot even get its act together to get solar seriously happening on an industry scale locally tells us that it’s time for government (because the private sector will stuff it up or use the capacity to hold everyone to ransom some more) to start acting in the national interest. On nuclear I would be inclined to agree, but there is the radiation angle when things go seriously wrong. And when it goes wrong with nuclear it would seem to go seriously wrong.

  1. I’m going to find it mighty funny if the ASX, after taking about 11 years to reach a new high, is cut down by the end of the business cycle and we retest the GFC lows and beyond as our banking system rams it’s head up it’s own sphincter and mining’s primary buyer goes into stagnation.

    I was looking at a long term monthly chart today and bugger me if it isn’t a sorry sight.

  2. Going to check out the Xmas lights in Ivanhoe tonight. Interesting how a community like this with no subdividing and super low real estate transactions gets together to put on a great show every year.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Old Straya mate ………enjoy …….but it’s got to be suitable for an injection of vibrancy …..cos it’s dull and boring ……

    • We need an article talking about all the benefits of multicultural neighbours and the cool little cafes it brings with it. I think Domain or Real Estate could do 1.

      • It’s not how much money you spend, it’s what you do with it. Too many teachers have spent 13 years in school then 3 more in uni then 1 doing emergency teaching then BOOM they’re a teacher. There should be a requirement of 5 years in the real world before you can become a teacher.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            So people who work for the military, Police force, education or health care system don’t have jobs in the real world?
            You are a tool

          • @Shawn lol, you mean you want every teacher to go and get a job for 5 years that isn’t teaching/govt sponsored when they’re a fresh faced uni graduate in a country that has youth unemployment bordering on insanity and nearly all entry level jobs are snavelled up by cash in hand “skilled migrants”? And this comment is inspied by the initial Credlin video in which she’s advocating for a return to rote learning, which needs absolutely no real world experience to teach. Nice try.

          • No. Knowing your craft, being a legitimate expert in your field, having a love for teaching others. These are what we need from teachers, not being qualified in “teaching”

          • Shawn … vast difference between being a subject matter expert and being a good at teaching it to others. Knowing about humans at different developmental stages and being able to engage various kinds of kids in a way that engages them is a real gift and something that a really good teacher can do. That skill is entirely different from knowing a specific subject very well.

          • agree Curious, also the challenges of students with varying abilities and different culture/language/level-of-breakfast-and-sleep-the-night-before, etc.

        • Sounds like the career path of a politician; 13 years in school, 3 years studying law, 1 year preparing for the bar exam and BOOM, they’re an expert on the economy, foreign affairs, defence, education…..

          • Yep.

            Increasingly, fewer have ever had a “real job”, or a significant career, before entering politics

            Yet, many end up as ministers responsible for significant government portfolios, and large budgets, with little or no relevant experience or skills or commitment to that area

            Clearly, if we were to advertise the ministerial posts to attract those with the necessary competence – with the abilities, commitments, knowledge, experience and skills to do the job well – very few indeed, if any, of the current lot would be appointed.

    • – Peta Credlin is absolutely correct. Without an urgent and dramatic ‘clean out’ in education – we will truly become the ‘poor white trash of Asia’.

      • Wake up to yourself and stop eating up this sky/hard right propaganda. Watch that piece again and single out the actual facts she provides, there are two.
        1. The PISA results
        2. The education spend over the last decade (haven’t fact checked)

        That’s it. The rest is all just “Ohhh noooo Labour/Unions/not our fault”. I can’t believe she has the hide to say maybe we need to adopt some confucian ways of teaching. Have to love her 2 second humble brag about going to a simple country Catholic school of quality rote learning and then getting into a “top legal school” yet she struggled many times in that piece to even speak clearly, concisely or authoritatively (as I’m sure whoever wrote that piece intended it to be delivered). How can anyone take that seriously?

      • Credlin’s nothing more than an academic lawyer and besides a few short years in the racing industry, is predominantly a Liberal Party hack. Besides going to school and uni which most of us have done at some point, we’re just as unqualified to hack on the education system as she is.

        • A woman pretending to be a bloke. Once you get that Credlin’s cover is blown. It’s like Alan Jones in reverse

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          So you like to move it move it then, ok…

          In terms of those criteria you forgot to add: The person who costs Tones his Prime Ministership.

          It’s quite unusual how easily that unprecedented event (Kev was different) is forgotten. I’m surprised she can get a job within shouting distance of ‘tactical political advice’.

          • I thought Tones was the one who cost Tones his PM ship. after all he decided to hire and stick with (and stick it in … nope, can’t prove that, just a filthy rumour, how juvenile, pls ignore that) her.

        • Wing Nut … spot on. Credlin appears to be another “sometimes wrong but never in doubt” self-inflating windbag. As bad as Jones. But also demonstrated herself as toxic from her time in Canberra. The thing with education – the pertinent facts seem to be observing reduced performance on Australian testing since 2003. But that is not enough to say either (1) objectives for education need to be changed or (2) implementation not meeting objective. And that is what is required for expert educators to determine that a change is required and can be affordably implemented. Not some 5 minute rant based on 2 minutes of reading.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Her main repeated point seemed to be let’s Spend less on education.
      The predictable let’s blame Teachers unions and Labor Governments was also repeated Ad nauseam.
      This Cvnt just uses what ever the issue of the day is to create another Anti Wealfare State, Anti Labour Narrative.
      Just another shill of the Small Government, taxation is theft, privatise everything brigade.

      She has nothing of substance at all to contribute to an Education standards debate.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Well, having read her written work *she* can spell and use an apostrophe correctly. I have no idea on her perspective on split-infinitives though.

        As to the rest of it, Gunna covered already with the Kennett comment above.

        There’s an audience, she’s playing to it, they keep getting elected. Simples.

        • My aim in life is to boldly go and split every infinitive I can find. To do otherwise is to lamely submit to bowtie wearing fcukwits, pedants or pedarasts. Most likely both.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            The sad irony here is that I already did coupled with your last sentence contradicts your first. No matter which candidate is likely.

    • Education just follows the economy and culture…

      … rampant housing speculation…stuff in between… conclusion: why get educated when you can buy an investment property?

    • BoomToBustMEMBER

      Education in Victoria is broken. All the good teachers are abandoning the profession in droves as the workload, pressure and politics is significantly increasing each year. One of the main reasons we are falling down in key areas is we pack to much into the curriculum, there is no time to work through and teach the students properly before moving onto the next subject. And then we go back to the start where many of the good teachers are leaving.

  3. So in whose footsteps will this delightful product of the Young Liberals follow? Taylor, Cash, Cormann, Dutton?

    “Liberal staffer who obtained false figures used by Angus Taylor will keep job”

    Mr Manuatu, a former president of the Young Liberals, joined Mr Taylor’s office following the May election and was formerly a senior aide to Eric Abetz and adviser for Mr Taylor’s predecessor in the seat of Hume, Alby Schultz.

    He was linked to a controversy in 2014 where advisers encouraged federal officials to “massage” their economic forecasts to match the Coalition’s vow to create one million jobs over five years.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-staffer-who-obtained-false-figures-used-by-angus-taylor-will-keep-job-20191204-p53gy1.html

  4. proofreadersMEMBER

    Josh Rainbowberg on 7.30 tonight selling his milk and honey story. How good is Straya.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      I laugh my self silly at the Parody accounts on Twitter.
      Especially when highly intelligent people get fooled and triggered by their posts.
      I don’t know if I’d still be on it if they all got banned.

      “A popular parody account has been suspended from Twitter following outrage by one of the largest media outlets in the world. The man behind Shaniqua O’Tool, an account that had over 15,000 followers at the time of suspension, says The Guardian forced Twitter to censor comedy”

      https://twitter.com/StewyGriffith/status/1202169172538486785?s=19

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      In terms of those criteria you forgot to add: The person who costs Tones his Prime Ministership.

      It’s quite unusual how easily that unprecedented event (Kev was different) is forgotten. I’m surprised she can get a job within shouting distance of ‘tactical political advice’.