Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A mixed day across Asian stock markets with the slump on Wall Street overnight reflected across most bourses except Chinese, which bucked the trend. The RBA decision to hold was the highlight of the day, as the Aussie dollar reached a new high beforehand as the USD weakened, the realisation that no more cuts sent the ASX200 down more than 2% as a result.

The Shanghai Composite is putting in a scratch session, helped by a better Yuan fix and looking to close again below the 2900 point level. The Hang Seng Index is slipping a little further after gapping down horribly at the start of the session to be off only 0.2% at 26388 points:

Japanese share markets didn’t have a good time of it, reflecting the poor performance from Wall Street and the risk proxy USDJPY pair’s falls, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.7% lower to 23363 points, still clinging above daily support at the 23000 level. The USDJPY pair managed to get back above the 109 handle during today’s session amid calls by Governor Kuroda for a new stimulus package, stay tuned on that front:

The ASX200 bore the brunt of the ill will today, falling over 2% to close at just over 6700 points, crushed by rate cut expectations from the RBA and a much higher Aussie dollar. The Aussie was on a roll before the RBA meeting today, caused by Trumps tariff tweets, consolidated at the 68.15 level then pushed to a new weekly high!

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are climbing back here with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing a small bounceback is possible tonight after the previously walloping. Momentum readings are in classic oversold mode, so a swing higher back above the low moving average is the target, but watch that trendline:

The economic calendar is relatively quiet tonight with some tertiary CPI and PPI prints in Europe and not much elsewhere.

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    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I’m just thinking back to what Captain Glennn should have done to fix this before we got here. Can’t really blame Lowe yet. Though I will after one more cut that does nothing. So shortly.

      So, Glennnnn… should have NOT cut rates. Obviously. Housing.

      But, raising them would have sent the AUD so high it would have been somewhere near Uranus relatively speaking. Not cutting at all would have had a similar effect I guess (after a few years).

      We could have been, ever so slowly, under the ‘on hold’ pathway the Switzerland of the Pacific. With better weather and slightly worse chocolate.

      • Yes, that’s right. It’s all Glennns fault.

        Lowe is a saint, he did all the could in a bad situation, etc. a victim, really.

        Should pass the hat around and get him a trip to Manila for some relaxation. He needs a break from all the devils he has been wrestling.

      • They only had to cut interest rates because they were so high relatively due to poor management of the mining boom.
        eg say post GFC Glenn left interest rates at 3% all the way to 2012 (no hikes) and the mining boom was managed with fiscal surpluses invested overseas.
        There wouldn’t have been the need for cuts because the interest differential would have been kept under control.

    • Where is your “check mark”? I just get excited when I get the email signialling someone has replied to my comment.

    • No talent in India to lay pipes…..? Tom’s found a franchise opportunity for your ditchwitch Ermo. #Rarer than an Indian plumber…..?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Isn’t that what you get when the state-level Libs and National parties merge?

      And yes, NZ has a few actually. Similar to US.

    • There is one, I think, in the back blocks of Artarmon industrial area. Everybody gets a stop sign from each direction. Always puzzled me who had right of way. Seems a bit clearer now.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        lived in artarmon for nearly 5 years. that intersection was a simple way of figuring out who was a local (and had encountered it before) vs someone from outside the area

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          How do you confuse an Australian at a roundabout?

          The night before, go to the closest one way street in town you can find and steal its No right turn sign. Then transplant it onto a roundabout entrance.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Pretty scary actually not one thought Australia had any kind of culture and none felt any need to assimilate – pretty much this country is f$&ked

    • Some favourite quotes:

      “Ethan came to Australia on the advice of a relative after failing to get good enough marks to enter a good university in China.”

      “Australia embraces all cultures while losing its own. It feels like a Chinatown. I can even communicate in Chinese in the city.
      Australia sits on the fence. I don’t really care about Australian opinions. Australia’s opinion on political issues follows that of the US.
      At first in Australia I really wanted to jump out of my circle and communicate more with Australians but I found I couldn’t do it. It was more efficient to communicate with Chinese.”

      So students who can’t get into local universities and no one who can actually converse with a local. What a crock. When I studied in the US I made lots of American friends, cause I can speak the damn language!!! International education is a farce. (& not at all an export)

  1. GNX.ASX up 7.4% today. It’s oversold and a lot of institutional buying the last few days. I reckon it’s heading to a new trading range from 21c to below resistance at 24ish cents.

  2. matthew hoodMEMBER

    In the past month 2 new land price records were set in my rural area. First record was set at$15000 per acre, then 1 week after that it was broken again at $250000. $3000 per acre is the benchmark.

    • Just goes toshow the true lack of experience / expertise required for one of these plum Govt jobs – FFS it was paying $270,000 – for WHAT????

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Yep. The only way that saga could have been any funnier (it’s been reported at its various stages for over a year now by the ABC especially) is if the position had been say HR Director, or GM of Ethics and Business Relationships. She was already responsible for all the security and trust stuff through the job she wasn’t supposed to have.

        Just googling this person (hard) would have raised LOTS of flags. What subordinate doesn’t google an external incoming new boss? There’s a definite moron-spectrum in that Dept. At least there was then.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Let me tell you about the ‘leadership’ levels of the public sector.

        For the most part they have little ability with numbers, and they have plausibly even less ability with words. Unlike their predecessors of a generation ago – some of whom I helped public sector organisations walk outside the gates on the basis that they represented ‘stovepiped thinking’ or werent ‘team players’ (though many had other behavioural facets which limited their ability to engage with both other ‘leaders’ and the people whom they were supposed to be leading [and they were nearly all male] – they have little actual ability to do anything, apart from the behaviour of loyalty (subservience, desperation, pathological fear, expectation of better things for them) to the clique which they have become part of.

        Governments post 1996 (both sides) have planted their own at the top of most public sector organisations, and those plants have metastasized at lower levels all around the ‘ethos’ of leadership. The lower levels in turn have adopted a widespread ‘just do it’ mindset and have largely let go of anything remotely resembling ‘the public good’.

        For the most part I tend to the view that the only difference between 1996 and 2020 in terms of the public services is that a leadership cohort of mainly male psychopaths, all defending (who could often be quite disagreeable), upholding, propagating instituting a view and a mindset (which generally involved an identifiable logic in relation to verifiable data and an articulated narrative, and generally more comprehensively reflected a significant body of the views of the subordinate staff) has been transformed into a leadership of psychopaths with is now largely female [which I have no in principle problem with] but which is invariably glib, lacks any narrative in terms of logic or progress towards an outcome, which is all too often even more dismissive of subordinate staff, ‘customers’ (a concept which has been grotesquely deformed in almost all public sector organisations) and is focussed on the concept of loyalty towards the head of an organisation – who is generally there to exhibit [and motivate in their staffs] the same loyalty towards the director, secretary, first assistant secretary, general manager or whatever, who in turn has the same desire (and expectation) to demonstrate that same unquestioning ‘loyalty’ to a Minister and a Minister’s office.

        That mindset means that nobody ever questions the actual intellectual skills, or history of newly appointed senior staff – they are appointed in the first place because they are the ‘right fit’ or are ideological ‘safe hands’. Rather they are welcomed into a club, and expected first and foremost to ‘behave’ in a particular way, which in the first instance involves loyalty to others in the same clique. It is only when they fall over (as would appear to be the case with this woman) that the ensuing search for why (which is invariably a blame apportionment exercise in itself) becomes apparent. The far greater question is not why some entirely unqualified individual was able to get in, but why so many utterly bereft individuals remain in place in executive levels in public service organisations all over Australia, long after they have ceased to grasp straightforward concepts, and long after they have ceased to be able to coherently identify and organise for the expectations of ‘customers’ or their own staffs.

        And this is just the outcome out politicians (particularly our Liberal and National politicians) quite like it. They spend gazillions on meaningless consultants. They completely fuck up things like IT (particularly the Commonwealth public sector). They desperately want to get rid of ‘Old White Males’ (generally because these represent some form of corporate knowledge and understanding of things beyond ‘loyalty’ in terms of function or the experience of ‘customers’) and love nothing more than to give vacated positions to some old white female (if she has done the time), or suitably emasculated males (particularly recent migrants, all keen to keep the buttock above moist – but also those desperately trying to sustain a family or mortgage) who are desperate to make their way up the chain and can thus be relied upon to be ‘loyal’ no matter what ideological nonsense is shat down on them from above. They beam out endless meaningless emails and, make endless completely wasteful site visits, and adopt ever more achingly insidious programs, catchphrases and slogans, and generally festoon themselves with only the choicest lips to apply to their buttocks. They create the juiciest of contracts for ‘private’ consultants, contractors, and often are surprisingly open about the prospects of moving into the private sector on the back of the contracts they have taken part in farming out.

        They duck and weave at the slightest registration of an ‘issue’ (meaning both subordinates and other sections/branches or whatever need to keep an eye out). They avoid responsibility like the plague. They are no less inclined than their predecessors to workplace bullying, sexual harassment, or simply hoping that malcontents will simply retire and go away (and boring the pants of them in order to achieve that outcome), as well as outright bullshit.

        They are a large factor in Australia’s contemporary socio-economic, and across the board policy, malaise.

      • Angus Taylor has been caught lying, sorry “misleading” parliament no less than four times this sitting yet still has a job. Go figure.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    And that statue of Bill in Martin Place? That’s off.

    Lower bound of 0.5? Pig’s arsse.
    Lucky for A2 he was as full of it as every other prognosticating hairy-arssed two-bits will get you change-economist though. Very lucky.

  4. I photographed about 100 properties for sale in the last 2 months. I painstakingly went back and checked their status.
    10% of then never sold. 40% of then sold with price available. 50% sold with price withheld. You must ask yourself in such a booming market why would all these agents withhold the sale price?

  5. Now that we’ve had a few days to ponder recent events in London, and the father of the dead bloke is urging everyone not to get caught up in hateful agendas that might be critical of the people and ideology that killed his son, I’d like to take this opportunity to urge my fellow Australians to be more like Narwhals.

    I walked across that bridge one sunny afternoon a few months ago and I like to think I would’ve have felt some Narwhal spirit had the need arisen.