Government, net exports save Q3 GDP

More partials indicators have been released, which feed into tomorrow’s national accounts release for the September quarter.

Once again, public spending has saved the day, alongside a boost in net exports:

Public Spending:

In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms compared with the previous quarter:

  • general government final consumption expenditure increased by $817m or 0.9%, and is expected to contribute 0.2 percentage points to growth in the September quarter 2019 volume measure of GDP
  • general government gross fixed capital formation increased by $167m or 0.9%
  • public corporations gross fixed capital formation increased by $294m or 5.4%
  • public gross fixed capital formation increased by $459m or 1.9%, and is expected to contribute 0.1 percentage points to growth in the September quarter 2019 volume measure of GDP.

Net Exports:

In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, the balance on goods and services surplus increased $1.0 billion, widening the surplus to $9.3 billion, with an expected contribution of 0.2 percentage points to growth in the September quarter 2019 Gross Domestic Product.

So, that’s 0.5% GDP to come from both public spending and net exports. This should more than offset falls in dwelling investment and private investment, with modest growth also expected from household consumption, inventories and wages/profits.

Leith van Onselen

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

Comments are hidden for Membership Subscribers only.