Essential: Morrison popularity slides

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Via The Guardian:

Scott Morrison ends an election-winning year with a strong thumbs up from Coalition voters. But voter disapproval of the prime minister has also crept up in the second half of 2019, from 34% in July to 43% in December, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.

With parliament rising for 2019 and Australians preparing for their summer break, voters were asked in the final poll of the year to rate Morrison’s performance as prime minister compared to their expectations, with 11% of the sample saying he had exceeded expectations, 41% saying he had met expectations, and 47% saying he had fallen short.

While Morrison ends the year beloved of the Liberal and National party base, with 82% of Coalition voters reporting he has either met or exceeded expectations, Coalition voters are more likely than other voting cohorts to express that positive view.

Anthony Albanese ends 2019 with approval ratings lower than Morrison’s (39% to 45%) but voter approval of the Labor leader has crept up over the past six months (he’s gone from 35% in June to 39% in December). Albanese’s disapproval has also gone from 25% in June to 28% in December.

Albanese’s main problem in the middle of this year was 39% of the sample didn’t know if they approved of his performance or not – reflecting his fledgling leadership of the Labor party. Albanese replaced Bill Shorten after the May election loss. While voters are still on the fence about the Labor leader, the “don’t know” cohort in Guardian Essential is trending down to 33% in the final poll of the year.

Albanese’s voter sentiment compared to expectations yields similar results to the prime minister, with 8% of the sample of 1,035 respondents saying the Labor leader has exceeded their expectations, 48% saying he has met their expectations, and 44% saying he has fallen short.

While 82% of Coalition rusted-ons are pleased with Morrison, Albanese enjoys a smaller premium among the Labor faithful, with 66% saying he’s either met or exceeded their expectations.

Essential is too cowardly to publish its primary and two party preferred measures any more.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.