Australian dollar falls on trade bluff and bluster

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar drops as RBA talks it down

DXY was down again last night as EUR and CNY rallied:

But the Australian dollar outpaced it lower:

Against EMs too:

Gold was stable:

Oil is trying:

Metals are still shot:

Miners were soft with GLEN crashed as it is engulfed by another bribery scandal:

Em stocks rallied:

Junk is fine:



Bonds mostly sold:

A stocks trod water:

Westpac has the wrap:

Event Wrap

US Oct. trade balance increased to -USD47.2bn (est. -USD48.5bn, prior revised to -USD51.1bn from -USD52.5bn) as both exports and imports declined. The decline in imports partly reflected the impact of the GM auto strike and also inventory liquidation. The concern, therefore, is that much of this improvement might reverse in coming months. Oct. factory orders were in line at +0.3%m/m, but Sep. was revised to -0.8%m/m from -0.6%m/m.

Eurozone Oct. retail sales fell 0.6%m/m (est. -0.5%m/m) from a revised -0.2%m/m in Sep. (prev. +0.1%m/m) for a mere +1.4%y/y (est. +2.2%y/y).

German Oct. factory orders fell 0.4%m/m (est. +0.4%m/m) after a revised +1.5%y/y in Sep. (initially +1.3%y/y) and so the annual (WDA) level fell to -5.5%y/y (est. -4.7%y/y). The failure to build on the Sep. rise and the disconcerting -4.1%m/m decline in non-Eurozone export orders threw concern over the potential for a rebound in the struggling core of Germany’s manufacturing sector.

Bank of Canada’s Dep. Gov. Lane gave another upbeat assessment of the economy citing resilience in the domestic economy sufficient to fend of external concerns. He also cited the economy nearing full capacity in a speech that was seen as underscoring the upbeat assessment from BoC yesterday and also that they were not beholden on following Fed moves.

Event Outlook

US: Nov non-farm payrolls are expected rise 185k and see the unemployment rate hold at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings are anticipated to hold at 3.0%yr, still down from the 3.2%yr pace seen in Aug. Dec University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected hold at 97.0, reflecting an above average level of optimism.

More trade scuttlebutt pushing markets around and not much else. The OPEC meeting will be interesting if it gets a cut through but that does not seems likely. Otherwise it is wait and see for tonight US jobs report. Weak will mean AUD up, strong will mean AUD down.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)