SQM: Housing to boom into bull trap

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SQM Research MD Louis Christopher expects growth in housing prices in Australia’s capital cities to average 11% in 2020. The latest edition of Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report forecasts that dwelling prices in Melbourne will rise by up to 15%, while Sydney’s housing market will record growth of 10%-14%. However, Christopher says the housing market rebound is unlikely to be sustained over the longer term:

The base case forecast is for dwelling prices to rise between 7% to 11%, which is a strong bounce back from the price falls recorded over 2018 and the first half of 2019.

Sydney and Melbourne will drive the rises. The forecast is for Sydney to rise between 10% to 14% and Melbourne 11% to 15%. Other cities are also expected to record price rises.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.