From the RBA sockpuppet, Terry McCrann, today:
The Reserve Bank did not “seriously ponder” a “shock” Cup Day rate cut — as some have interpreted, or rather misinterpreted, the minutes of that meeting.
This is not just about getting ‘yesterday right’; it is even more important about not building in a misunderstanding of what the RBA is likely to do at its last meeting for the year in two weeks time.
The danger broadly is that if it had come ‘close to cutting’ in November, surely that would make a cut more likely or even ‘probable’ in December?
…Too many commentators are prematurely ‘locking in’ a further official rate cut at that February meeting.
Instead they should read and understand the key word in the minutes and a word that I was very pleased to see. Assessment.
The RBA releases the minutes. It knows what message it is sending.
As usual, Sockpuppet has as much idea about the economy as does the RBA (which ain’t much) so he will miss the turning point.
February still looks a good bet for the next cut.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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