The post-election bounce is well and truly over, with Roy Morgan reporting that business confidence has crashed, with forward indicators driving the decline:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence dropped 4.6pts (-4.2%) to 106.0 in October, putting it at its lowest level since the Federal Election in mid-May. The fall was heaviest in forward-looking indicators, with the largest decline concerning business prospects this time next year. Even so, a slim majority of businesses (50.4%) say the coming year is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’.
The October 2019 Business Confidence level is 7.1pts lower than it was year ago and 9.5pts below the long-term average of 115.5. It is now also well below the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence, which was at 113.5 on November 2/3, 2019.
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Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
