NSW stamp duty receipts begin rebound

The NSW Office of State Revenue has released stamp duty data to October, which reveals a massive $1.47 billion (23%) decline over the past year and a $2.55 billion (34%) decline since stamp duty receipts peaked in September 2017:

The slump in stamp duty receipts follows a sharp 20% decline in property transfers in the year to October and a 30% fall since peak:

The annual decline in revenue has dwarfed the GFC experience, albeit is beginning to rebound:

Indeed, annual stamp duty receipts actually rose by 0.3% in October, whereas transfer volumes rose by 0.2% over the month.

The rebound is also reflected in rising auction clearance rates and dwelling values across Sydney:

With more rate cuts still to come, looser lending standards, and first home buyer stimulus due to come into effect from 1 January 2020, Sydney’s housing market should continue to rebound. And with it, so too should stamp duty receipts.

Leith van Onselen

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