Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Asian stock markets have gone into risk off mode going into the weekend, despite the Black Friday retail orgy but mainly due to lack of direction from closed a Wall Street. A speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda has rattled a bit of confidence in Japan and elsewhere as he states “fiscal and monetary policy is not enough”, while volatility on currency markets is rising in preparation for a packed economic calendar tonight and going into next week.

The Shanghai Composite is falling sharply after its poor showing yesterday, currently down 0.6% to 2861 points while the Hang Seng Index is the biggest loser, down 2% as markets absorb the potential for another round of protests this weekend. The daily chart was tentatively bullish but price action has nearly taken out all signs of support here:

Japanese share markets have fallen slightly in the wake of Governor Kuroda’s speech with the Nikkei 225 about to close 0.2% lower to 23352 points, as it continues to hover above daily support at the 23000 level. The USDJPY pair is not able to make anymore gains here above the 109 handle with the four hourly chart putting in a classic bearish double top pattern as momentum looks to invert:

The ASX200 is just holding on to a scratch session, down about 0.2% into the close and remaining above the 6800 points barrier. The Aussie dollar is finding some life here after trying to find a bottom here yesterday, bouncing off last week’s extreme low at the 67.70 level:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures have flat lined here with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing an unstable intention of direction going into the return this evening from the Thanksgiving break:

The economic calendar will be dominated by European and German CPI and unemployment prints tonight.

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  1. Carbon Revolution IPO priced at $2.60, Closed today on the ASX at $3.400?
    Seems manufacturing in Australia is alive and well. With a name like that they should have spruiked it as an innovative carbon capture business.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Mining, son just went to get his groceries at Warringah Mall. Very long traffic jams into it and cops on all the intersections directing traffic overriding the traffic lights. Recons we’ll soon be celebrating thanksgiving as well.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I don’t doubt it. See, if I have a race coming up I go and get a $10 number one cut for luck. This morning the roads were absolutely dead, so dead that the tradies couldn’t find anyone to rage against. So I thinks after work I’ll slip over for the buzz while there’s nobody about. Well…carpark was full. People around but nobody pushing trollies…just walking around. Inside shops had one or two people in them but still nobody carrying bags of goodies. Just lots of people just being consumer failures.

        Paul below might be onto it, check for sizes then buy online.

      • A bloke in the States once asked me how we celebrated Thanksgiving in Australia. I sh1t you not.

        • desmodromicMEMBER

          A bloke in the US once asked me what language we spoke in Australia and complemented me on my command of ‘American English’. He probably had good reason to ask because moments before I’d been standing in front of Joliet Prison trying to hitch on a cold December morning. I was blissfully unaware of my surroundings and hadn’t yet seen ‘The Blues Brothers’ to know better the function of the low building behind me.

    • Who goes to the shops these days unless they want to check the size of something out? Retailers with a decent online storefront are probably going ok.

      • Well,I went to David Jones in the centre of Melbourne today. Black Friday signs everywhere.
        It was absolutely heaving with people, and they were all spending furiously.
        90-95 % of the faces were Chinese.
        All the really expensive boutiques in Collins Street( ritzy plus) were absolutely dead, even with Black Friday.
        If China sneezes big time, David Jones is completely stuffed.

    • Honestly I don’t get why people go on a feeding frenzy for a few % off with all the headache of parking, going to a shopping center and all that nonsense.

      • Yes of course Gav. That’s rational. It’s not people it’s women. They have a gland that causes them to shop. Bargains excite the gland uncontrollably

        • Reply to self…
          Of course there are mannish girls and girlish men. All power to them.
          Mannish means my time is too important for this sh!t
          Girlish means Oh my god there’s bargains!
          Shop for bargains according to your self-assigned shopping gender and what makes you feel good about yourself.

          Then die

    • I reckon Black Friday will increasingly become a thing but won’t boost retail overall, will just cannibalise Xmas retail (and at a discount instead of full price like sheeple used to pay in December).

      • Southland shopping Centre in Melbourne was just crazy today. Drove into the car park (forgot about Black Friday) and couldn’t believe the tail back of cars waiting for park. I judiciously exited the car park. What a headache!

    • guess ill be propping it up, spent massive on a new PC and graphic tablet this black friday. thought may as well with savings returns being poor and the potential for currency to drop.

      • A logical thing to do, but also precisely what the RBA wants and is trying to do of course, force those savings to be brought forward and spent!

    • I was excited but then couldn’t find much to buy other than some minor products and a replacement kettle. Lol. I could replace more old stuff, but why bother. There’s been no new exciting consumer product since the smartphone came into its own.

      I would buy the Instant Pot if they sold it in Australia — no idea why we don’t have it yet.

    • Not into stampede shopping, couldn’t give a rats azz about Black Friday unless it means 70% of VB’s at the club.

    • Sounds like a very cruisey job to me..

      Just read the article, seems harsh she’s in jail indefinitely. Perhaps it was pay back for her behavior? Maybe give her time to think about it. Will be interesting to see how this develops.

    • They have a very difficult firearm qualification course of fire and they have to shoot a passing grade before each flight otherwise no fly. Some of the best gunslingers you’ll ever find, which was always a comforting thought for me on my many US flights back in the day.

      This young woman no doubt thinks she’s been the victim of racism, but I kinda suspect that the root cause of her various issues is stupidity. Hers. The worst place in the world to get drunk and stroppy and violent and attack the staff, truly-ruly the worst, is an American airliner. September 11 2001 and all that.

      • My Dad was a gun man (responsible etc) and had quite a collection. I was allowed some supervised action as a kid but only when visiting family friends way out West, near Warren, Although not rare, he had a 44/40 Winchester lever action rifle which was absolutely immaculate, beautiful – he was a car man as well and loved good mechanics/engineering and the action on this rifle was smooth and superb. A beautiful Mauser .22 target rifle, a .22 Derringer (type) just right for a lady’s purse and highly illegal, a gun referred to as a pepperpot, a revolver which had nine long chambers (5″?) and used each one as the barrel and a Tranter used by NSW Police after about 1850. All surrendered now, unfortunately. There were others I’ve forgotten too. Just wish I’d kept my old Gecardo air-rifle so I could see a few Mynah birds on their way.

        • I have a …ahem…large number of firearms. I’m an engineer, and can sit and admire the precision of their mechanisms, oiling and cleaning, for hours at a time. Perhaps a bit like Paul Keating and his clocks, only better.

          I have an Anschutz 1717 with their Model 54 Olympic target action and Zeiss glass. It’s a thing of exquisite, unsurmountable mechanical beauty.

    • Every אל על‎ flight has air marshals.

      She is a disgrace and should be locked up. But hey:

      Men Sentenced To Longer Prison Terms Than Women For Same Crimes

  2. I suspect Australia has a visa problem?
    Quote “Bankstown Local Court today heard Mr Grewal, an Indian national on a bridging visa, was serving a sentence in the community for domestic violence matters.
    His driving history includes instances of driving unlicensed, negligent driving, speeding and refusing a breath test.
    Prosecutor Chris Brien said dash cam footage showed the truck swerving in the lead-up to the collision.”

    • was serving a community sentence for domestic violence

      WTF are they not automatically deported for violence.

  3. Mining BoganMEMBER

    While it’s raining in Adelaide check out the Qld v Tas shield game on They’re trialling the new Kookaburra and it’s looping around everywhere on a green top. Great viewing.

  4. Because of stupidity I posted this in the expat CGT page. Or drunkenness.

    Have to give CH7 credit for the cricket, they have some pretty good graphics, the image is pretty good, they have skull on the commentary team (he cracked me up a couple of times today) and best of all no puppy!

    Did anyone see Gilly crack up at the “open faced slapper” line.

    Also, stump cam is so good these days!

  5. Banana ManMEMBER

    And for other important news…My hose got flogged. I can sort of understand, 9 kink resistance and all. I still feel violated. Only got to use it once. Performed well.

    • Dunno about those kink free hoses, had a few of them over the years. Cvnts played straight for a while then kinked on me. Mrs Nut tried to straighten them out but they turned, just couldn’t get the kink out. Horrible experience. Speaking of kink, how’s Chook Norris?

  6. Population deniers getting more and more irrational.

    Comparison between population deniers and climate deniers:
    Climate Denier – Scientific data doesn’t matter because the ideological purpose of those pushing an extreme response is scary.
    Population Denier – Scientific data doesn’t matter because the ideological purpose of the pushing an extreme response is scary.
    Climate Denier – You are a nasty socia8ist monster
    Population Denier – You are a nasty ecofac8st

    Despite the fantasy world that population deniers live in, the stark reality is that the purpose of population growth is high growth urbanisation and the outcome is always highly degraded local ecology, extreme consumption and aggregate demand economics and reduced capacity of institutions and society to cope with uncontrolled environmental financialisation.

    Whilst the proponents of high growth urbanisation may wish to pretend that it doesn’t need to be linked to catastrophic biodiversity decline, the evidence is not so kind.

      • lol. Just loving how full the Adelaide oval grandstand is – well worth destroying the most beautiful ground in Australia so they can fill it up twice a year. Although we could easily fix this by adding 15million more warm bodies to inner Adelaide. All super eco of course, because they won’t use the beaches, or the sewage system, or the water, or throw plastic in the rivers, or demand more of the local fisheries, or create housing dystopia, or create more demand for factory farming, or whatever, and if you want these kind of dreams its Californication.

  7. Prediction: Labuschange to have better figures than Ponting, except he started later.

    Maybe better than MHussey?

    • IMO too soon to put him that high on the pedestal. Opposition bowlers will be studying him closely. Revisit after Saffers and Indian tours.

      • My judgement may have been somewhat impaired when writing that!

        Anyway, it’s rare to have something to look forward to with the Aus cricket team.