Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar taken hostage by dramatic US election

Asian stock markets are quite mixed across the region with local shares buoyed by Westpac’s call for two more rate cuts by the beleagured RBA, which sent the Aussie dollar down, while Chinese stocks continued their pullback as the Yuan fix hovered around the 7 handle. No news on the US/China trade deal is good news overall however.

The Shanghai Composite is again barely hanging on to a positive result to be just above the former 2900 points resistance level. The Hang Seng Index is also hovering around its own resistance zone at 27000 points, falling 0.1% to 26894 points. The daily chart is tentatively bullish but no firm technical signs of a sustainable trend:

Japanese share markets had another solid push, helped by a weaker Yen throughout the session with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.3% higher to 23437 points, as it continues to build above daily support at the 23000 level. The USDJPY pair is slowly eking out more gains here above the 109 handle and remains on trend from its low from mid last week, although short term momentum is waning going into the City session:

The ASX200 was again the best in the region, closing 0.9% higher and cracking right through the 6800 points barrier, helped along by a solid reversal in the Pacific Peso. The Aussie dollar was trying to find a bottom here but has been thwarted by the very dovish Westpac call as it returns back to last week’s extreme low at the 67.70 level:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures have advanced with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price intentions to move higher from last night’s record closing level as the FOMO doubles down:

The economic calendar will be dominated by the release of 3Q GDP results from the US tonight.

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Comments

    • At risk of sounding like a broken record … yup.

      Forget China … they are toast. An economy driven by way too much debt fuel – fuel which has now burnt out. Many are impressed by their progress and it’s true that they have come a long way, but they tried to achieve an economic result in a fraction of the time it took the US to do the same.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      There is also a very weird story about the Dean Of Science at UTS, formerly of Wollongong.

      • The woman who sent threatening email to herself? It was related to her decision to axe the Chinese Medicine course from UTS, and she got the vote to axe it by saying she is being harassed by Chinese medicine practitioners.

        I have no idea why such a course even exists in Australia, but the Dean if Science in UTS being a really bad liar didn’t surprise me at all.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        It just seems weird, and it’s hard to see a financial or reputation gain in those actions. She pleaded not guilty.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I always wondered what was in those cans.

        But enough of Pamela Anderson, it’s not 1984 anymore people.
        Oh, wait…

    • Missing all the great moments in your kids life so you can carry a swank mortgage in Sydney – can’t see how you’d ever regret that.

      • How many actually have a mortgage vs. dirty money funnelled out of China, embraced by Australian real estate.

      • You clearly don’t know some Asians – their children are little more than adornments / investments. I know a couple who work all hours God sends and their child goes to the most expensive private school in the area. Sports are banned, the child plays a couple of musical instruments (at ridiculously high level) and she attends Chinese school all Saturday. Sundays are reserved for ‘study’.

        Just so her success can cast a glow over her parents. Pretty disgusting if you ask me but then different people have different ‘values’. My aunt, who taught at a local teaching hospital said the Asian students had exceptional grades but were largely useless because they had never been taught how to think. You cannot consult a textbook in an emergency situation, she said … you need to be able to think on your feet – be creative if need be. Many of them had little personality either, which is no surprise given what the parents have bestowed on them.

        • I used to work with a couple singaporean chinese and they were great at following rules but couldn’t think their way out of a wet paper bag. My mate works in China and says the same. They have absolutely no innovative thinking, they just copy things others have done.

    • That woman is a fcuking imbecile. Reading that made me stupider. The ABC should be razed to the ground, for employing her, and then ploughed with salt, for publishing that story.

      If she…a stupid smelly smoking alcoholic spendthrift with no self control…is the future of our country, we’re fcuked.

      We’re fcuked. I’m gonna convert to Islam.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        No, don’t. When I toyed with Islam while in a particularly spiteful mood I found quite a bit of it rather sensible but there was also some very weird angry stuff that ends in lost body parts. I just wasn’t THAT spiteful.

        Very similar to the bible to be honest. One scimitar out of five.

        • desmodromicMEMBER

          Same prophets, same story, different version. Like the difference between ‘Neighbors’ and ‘Home and Away’ versions of Australian life, except the religious texts share the same cast.

        • Yes…yes…of course. Dunno what I was thinking.

          I’ll just sharpen my bayonets for a little while. That will help me calm down.

      • Most young Aussies do not take up smoking.

        She is…you described her well.

        She was awarded the Quill for Radio Current Affairs and the Melbourne Press Club Victorian Young Journalist of the Year Award. She was also a finalist in the Walkley Australian Young Journalist of the Year Awards in 2017 and 2018.

        WTF?

    • the subtext here is obvious given the ABC’s readership; the current boyf may be boyishly charming and have lots of well enthusiasm my dear but he is obviously not getting rubber to the road in terms of upscaling her lifestyle potential.So she really needs a bit more financial headroom and maybe should be looking to a wealthier Boomen Boomer to fulfill her needs.

    • They’ve got the message from Josh – your jobs are on the line unless you publish this shameless tripe!

      Amazing how willing people are when they have absurdly large mortgages to service 😉

    • But then:
      a) you’d have to pay them
      b) not sure there’s too many who want to jump into that hazmat pool right about now…

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        But then:
        -1) you’d have to find some
        0) it’s Qld. Mate. You’d have to find some in Qld
        a)
        b)

    • Nothing at all to do with 457. It is a combination of political ideology that doesn’t want public to compete with private, and ignorant public servants with nfi about software needing to comply with many state and federal regulations. It allows companies like SAP to step in with existing software at what seems to be a reasonable price, and then take tax payers to the cleaners with the cost of modifying and implementing their software.

        • You are off the mark. I hire a lot more Indians today that I did ten years ago. It was never anything to do being racial1st and everything to do with their education system and IT Industry which has seemingly improved. I assure you that I am no technically dummy and I ask tough questions in interviews to filter out the riff raff.

          No doubt at all immigrants are being exploited to suppress wages though.

          IBM is a private company that likes to maximise their profits by outsourcing the work to India. That is very different to immigrants that are being hired locally. IT wages in India are a fraction of Australia’s. If you pay peanuts…

      • I hire a lot more Indians today that I did ten years ago.

        I thought it would be the other way round. 10 years ago, there may have been a stereotype that Indians are superior at IT but that stereotype should not exist today.

        You are supposed to be hiring Aussies because Scummo has put a $5000 tax on foreign workers:

        $5000 skills levy per worker.

        introduced in 2018

        https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/india-it-giant-points-to-friction-over-australian-skills-levy-20191113-p53a1i

        local IT grads passed over for someone from overseas, claiming to be qualified when clearly they weren’t. It’s a common occurrence for some to create fictitious cvs claiming to have 8 years experience when in reality they watched a few videos and memorised answers to interview questions.

        https://theconversation.com/theres-one-big-problem-with-australias-skilled-migration-program-many-employers-dont-want-new-migrants-125569

        I’ve had considerable contact with such skilled immigrants who after years still can barely speak English and much of their skills appear to have disappeared upon landing in Australia.

    • But all true, sadly. We tried to ‘ride out the bubble’ to buy in cheaper but in the end buying was a good option. It turned the day-to-day living experience on its head. Made the wife a lot happier – and me too 😉

      • We can’t wait until settlement, the house we rent right now really gets me down. I’m over it. Quality of life is worth spending extra for in my opinion. I hope I never have to rent long term ever again..

        • There’s definitely more to life than ‘buying at the right time’. Timing should never be ‘a thing’.

          Fingers crossed it all goes well from here. Looks a great place.

        • We opted for a 30 day settlement to get in asap. Luckily we’ve moved a few times in the last few years while renting and are generally pretty minimalist. Settle next Monday! When’s your move, Gav?

          • Feb 21st, but since I’m moving cities it gives me time to find a new job in Melbourne. (moving from Sydney). I bought a place where I can earn a lot less money and still get by ok. Thanks to the modest mortgage. So not worried about changing jobs. Part of the reason the vendor went for our offer was that we agreed to their settlement terms. So whilst 30 days would have been wonderful. It actually worked to our advantage like this. Still, can’t escape Sydney quick enough!

  1. Banana ManMEMBER

    been on a wee bit of a bender. spossedly china devalued yuan…? any links?
    One of the better blurry recollections was fingering the really friendly waitress in the fancy Chinese restaurant for being an undercover cop plant. Was a bit misguided but funny.

    • losing your entire car manufacturing industry so you can say the word markets. cost of cheap politician
      realising that every other economy in the world subsidises its car industry. priceless.

      • Except for the fact that Holdens are actually sh!t. Properly sh!t.

        Whereas Toyatas, Mazdas, Hondas, Beemers, Audis and VWs are decent vehicles.

        Some things are worth subsidising …. and some not.

        • We have had a holden for 10 years. Only just had to do the timing belt, otherwise we haven’t spent a cent in 10 years. Also know a few people that worked at Holden, they are good blokes and worked hard. On the flip side, I have known quite a few professionals that bought audi’s, beemers and VWs and they have often been over-priced pieces of cr&p.

          • @Morgs. I was a Holden person all my life. Never bought anything but Holdens. BUT bought the VE Calais in 2006 & it was the worst thing to happen. Awful, awful, awful experience. Everything about that heap of crap still makes me mad. Awful experience with an awful company. Remember saying to the Holden guy who came to collect my “loan” car (as my brand new one was back at Elizabeth being investigated for the 5th time!) as the loan car had broken down (VE Calais!) that Holden won’t be making cars in Australia in 5 years time ’cause the product is crap & the service is way worse. He laughed & said they’d always get money from Government as they would never let it go. I said bullsh!t you are full of it. The product was absolute sh!t & the service way worse. Reminds me of where our banking system is right now. Over paid, over bloated, arrogant & not that useful!

      • What has happened to grocery code of conduct? Thought it’s meant to create jobs, so we are told anyway

    • The planet will return to a sustainable equilibrium whether humans want to be willing participants in the process (and potentially make it less painful for ourselves) or not

      • And regardless of the fairytales we tell ourselves. There is no guarantee the next equilibrium will be life sustaining.