Macro Afternoon

Another generally mixed day in Asian risk taking given the poor performance on Wall Street overnight as the stronger USD weighs on markets.

Chinese stocks are really struggling here, with the Shanghai Composite down nearly 0.6% to be well below 2900 points although the Hang Seng Index has found a modicum of buying support, currently up 0.3% to be at 26536 points. Price is anchored below former trailing ATR support and the resistance zone at 27000 points as momentum flat lines:

Japanese share markets have taken the poor CPI print in stride as Yen weakened slightly throughout the session with the Nikkei 225 about to close 0.3% higher to 23115 points, as it holds on above daily support levels above 23000 points. The USDJPY pair lifted higher at first but has stabilised in the afternoon to currently be at 108.60 and looks to finish the week flat as the risk proxy of choice provides uneasy direction:

The ASX200 is up nearly 0.5% higher going into the close, putting in a good finish to a poor week, currently at 6706 points, helped by a lower Aussie dollar which is hell bent on testing last week’s extreme low at the 67.70 level as negative momentum builds:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are flat with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price still anchored at the previous trailing ATR support level at 3100 points – watch that downtrend line from the early week high:

The economic calendar concludes the week with a speech from ECB President Lagarde followed by a slew of preliminary services PMI across the continent and in the US. Have a good weekend!

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Comments

  1. A 13-year-old girl has been arrested for allegedly lighting fires in Adelaide’s southern suburbs, less than 24 hours after the state’s devastating start to bushfire season.

    https://7news.com.au/news/sa/teenage-girl-accused-of-lighting-fires-less-than-24-hours-after-sas-bushfire-emergency-c-569515

    An ageing population is a good thing. Less teens = less bushfires and fewer houses destroyed in bushfires because there would be fewer houses in the first place.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Bit out of character for me to spray anybody but just gave it to SnappedUpSavvy on previous post, There Aren’t Enough Jobs For Oldies To Work Longer.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        Hey Boom, no wuckers mate, your hard I can tell, I got two guys like you working for me, the problem is you’re a rare breed. If you can find a hard old bloke who wants to work it’s like winning lotto. You know of the 20 people I employ 18 are over 50, it’s just the over 60-65 that would prefer to be retired but still have to work that give me the shyts and I’m too nice to sack em

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      She must have been a Greta Thunberg fan trying to “Spark up” a bit of Propaganda to argue for greater climate action.

      “How dare you get caught” I can hear Greta thinking.

  2. GunnamattaMEMBER

    At long last people are starting to twig……

    Power and Paranoia: Why the Chinese government aggressively pushes beyond its borders
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/peter-hartcher-on-china-s-infiltration-of-australia-20191118-p53bly.html

    ‘Insidious’: Former ASIO boss warns on Chinese interference in Australia
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/insidious-former-asio-boss-warns-on-chinese-interference-in-australia-20191121-p53cv2.html

    • The Horrible Scott Morrison MP

      That’s right. Every year some joker predicts the housing market will fall 40%, with an accuracy rate so far of 0%. You’re a slow learner.

    • After he has just purchased a place and is planing to “rentvest” it?
      Im not really convinced Martin is doing himself any favours with some of these jokers.

      • That was good. Watching it confirmed my suspicion that North is approaching the topic from the wrong angle – ie. from a debt/affordability perspective rather than valuation/behavioural perspective.
        Saying the bubble will burst because credit will be less available makes no sense because credit availability is factored into intrinsic value. As the guest says you need to be able to tell a story of why the narrative or expectation of a greater fool will change irrespective how the asset is financed.
        Focusing on debt makes no sense. That’s why Adams, keen etc. keep getting it wrong.
        Simple thought experiment; all mortgage creditors convert their debt into equity in the debtors homes. Mortgage credit is now zero. Previous creditors are all landlords. Why does this imply prices should fall? Adams, Keen etc. say it should because debt has collapsed. But they are wrong because it doesn’t imply any change in expectations of CG.
        If bubble was actually understood as the technical term it is 1) mainstream journalists would never use it and 2) the bubble would have burst a long time ago.

          • rational agents do not have emotions…
            in reality it depends on the balance of bulls and bears and how damaging the crash was. Bulls remember the booms and bears remember the crashes.

          • Rational like Natural was always a mythology where like Thatcher privatizing public housing [or base social goods] – was like a dealer handing out freebies next to the day trader playground.

  3. As soon as u talk the poo up or down, someone takes the opposite action
    “Aussie dollar which is hell bent on testing last week’s extreme low at the 67.70 level as negative momentum builds”
    ……Europe grabs it and pushes it up from 67.85 to 68 almost to spite you

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