Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Another sea of red across Asian stock markets today following the same wave overnight on Wall Street, despite the Chinese trying to shore up optimism that trade talks won’t stumble and fall into the 2020 calendar year. Moody’s downgrade of the Australian state budgets weighed locally with the Australian dollar struggling to get back above 68 cents while the PBOC cut the Yuan substantially in its fix, sending offshore Yuan to a new weekly high above 7.04 against USD.

Chinese stocks are really struggling here, although on the mainland that Yuan cut saved some ground for the Shanghai Composite which only fell 0.25% to be just above 2900 points while the Hang Seng Index fell straight out of bed to match the previous daily lows, falling 1.6% to be at 26456 points. Price is rejecting former trailing ATR support and the resistance zone at 27000 points as momentum builds to the negative side:

Japanese share markets were again swayed by the volatility in Yen both overnight and throughout the session as the Nikkei 225 lost ground and closed 0.5% lower to 23038 points, despite a late rally in the USDJPY pair. Yen buyers swapped their positions later in the session after breaking down to last week’s intrasession low in a potential sign that there maybe a bottom here after all:

The ASX200 is now in full selling mode, losing another 0.7% to fall to 6672 points after recently breaking the medium term trendline on the daily chart.   The Aussie dollar was relatively stable given the Moody’s downgrade, helped by some noise that Morgan Stanley is looking to buy more of the Pacific Peso. In the short term however, price looks like testing last week’s extreme low at the 67.70 level:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly despite the lag in Asian shares with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price anchored at the previous trailing ATR support level at 3100 points:

The economic calendar includes more ECB wonkery tonight, with the release of the OECD outlook, another official speech plus the releases of the October minutes. In the US its initial jobless claims night.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • So, the answer is for younger people to stop spending; cut out that wasteful disposable income expenditure, and save more! Of course. Obvious isn’t it….Hang on…let me think about that….

      • There is some merit to that. A coordinated cut of discretionary spending causing a recession, compounded by a massive cut to “skilled migration” as there are no jobs to fill, all leading to a spectacular housing crash.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Hang on! Isn’t that what we’ve all been doing? Unfortunately the buying strike was undermined by importing hundreds of thousands who spend even less yet somehow add to national prosperity.

          How did this happen…non-buyers being undermined by bigger non-buyers.

          “Oh Father, the shame of it all…beaten by a mouse.”

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      That entitled old sh1tstain at the end…it’s his fault Jack is now hiding under the chair down the back of the yard.

      It was old couples like that while I was visiting Queensland when my dad was dying that nearly had me converting to Islam. There’s thousands of the delusional sods and not one has a sense of self-awareness of how they bludged through life. Not. One. And when I said I bludged on the rear end of the boom and was just outright lucky to get where I am they’d say no, you worked hard for it. Pig’s arse I did and neither did they.

      23 hours a day. F#ck off.

    • I couldn’t make it through. I don’t begrudge them for what they have it what they are doing. It bothers me that they can’t, or refuse to, recognise that they benefitted greatly from temporal fortune while at the same time dismissing those who haven’t.

  1. The economy is saved. I spent $67 today in discretionary spending I hadn’t intended to spend. Sort of. Finally got around to buying some replacement clothing items I’ve been thinking of getting for a long time (over a year for two items) but hasn’t gotten around to because, well, I can’t really be bothered, obviously. $67 at Target can go a long way

  2. Going to save it myself tomorrow.
    Down to one pair of summer shoes/ sandals in total, and my friendly repairman has said the next issue with them is straight to the bin.
    The shoe shop I go to( (in 3185) has been advertising second pair half price right through winter and start of summer season.
    Never seen that before, and does not bode well for shopping longevity.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          I was thinking: “Sandals.”. “Sandals?”. No. Please. Make it stop. Why man? Why?

          And: On second thoughts, buy as many pairs as possible and bring them home, or alternatively, set fire to them in-store. Less to carry home that way. And the neighbours won’t complain about the smell.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            I have a pair of bush walking sandals. Very comfy with outstanding toe protection. Also lovely to wear on a casual bike ride through the park trails. They must look good too because everyone stares at them.

            Sandals. #LivingLarge

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            No footsore, in my mind the bearded dude would be wearing a pair of high heels, and as he pedals away on his recumbent he will wave and reveal a toothless grin.

          • Recumbent riders* believe themselves to be interesting. None of them actually that are.
            * I was a recumbent rider** until the great clearing of the stable.
            ** It isn’t me in the photo.

          • Foots – good point, it’s like a substitute for being actually interesting. In the same way that every workplace (in the public service) has one chunt who wears a brightly coloured bow tie as everyday wear. It’s always the only thing that anyone knows about them or can be bothered asking about. They think it makes them eccentric and a bit interesting, but actually it’s a substitute for having a personality.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Pfft Wing Nut…Scummo’s church has more in common with Westpac and Prince Andr3w than some long haired hippy in questionable footwear.

          • A2 – I couldn’t take it that far with the recumbent people I met. They were generally just passionate about something that other people don’t get. I have met many people of they type that you mention. Their identity seems to hang off something that they think makes them interesting. It’s always funny when they meet their other and they both make their own little world. They end up being greater than the sum of their parts whereas before they didn’t quite seem to make a whole.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            @MB I thimk the stares are because the audience is trying to work out whether what they can see under the sandals are actually socks. Or not.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Well, it is advisable in colder climes to wear a hearty pair of woollen socks with your hiking sandals.

  3. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Unfortunately I had to get my driver to take me out to the inner west of Sydney today. Had to pass through Newtown. Wow what a vibrant strip nowadays. Didn’t see anywhere near as many homosexual types as you used to but there were loads of cute Chinamen ladies (and some seriously fugly educational looking ones too that were packing it on). Interesting.

  4. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    “I have a pair of bush walking sandals. Very comfy with outstanding toe protection. Also lovely to wear on a casual bike ride through the park trails. They must look good too because everyone stares at them.”


    Mining Bogan,

    The above when combined with your ownership of an electric lawn mower has me thinking that we can’t be best friends anymore.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Occasionally but not enough to become a constant hassle. I wear Keen hydros with a built up front so as no not to break toes kicking big rocks in water crossings or on roots when the legs get tired and you go into the old man shuffle.

        You wouldn’t consider them for a hard, monster trek but great for a national park walk or hang off your backpack on a multi-day hike if you want to give your feet a bit of fresh air on an easy bit.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Electric Lawnmowers are the best. Picked one up at the Masters fire sale. The best thing I have purchased in the last ten years. Quiet, store it standing up & does the yard in a single charge.

      And hiking sandals are pretty good too! 👍😀

      • What model have you got. I want to get one but not sure of power cutting compared to two stroke. Any tough robust models available.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          I have an EGO mower and swear by it. The only times it struggles is in the thick buffalo grass when it’s gotten away a bit and wet underneath. Wet season I can’t do the quarter acre in one hit but have a beer with Jack on the back steps while the battery is recharging. Dry season do it all in one go. Quiet, no maintenance and efficient but it does lose that absolute petrol cutting power.

          • What do electric ones cost? I’m thinking of getting an electric mower. New place only has nature strip to mow. I reckon I’ll get it done before most can get a petrol mower started.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Yep, same one. Mine stalls on the thicker, wet stuff that a petrol would handle easier but for the benefits it’s a much better mower.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Hadn’t heard they’d canned it. Waiting to see what the drive away will be.
            (With 90% of distillates manufactured in Singapore, and only 2 weeks supply in storage, electric vehicles are looking pretty good.)

  5. Tax-dodging socialite goes from Toorak mansion to Deer Park prison

    former Channel 7 newsreader has been jailed after she was found guilty of evading $1.7 million in tax.

    Semmens, 58, had repeatedly ignored advice from accountants and bank staff that GST was owed on the transfer of 10 properties between 2005 and 2011.

    “You have your dishonesty but also your stubbornness and intransigence to blame,” Judge Johns said.

    Not ok boomer.

  6. A compelling explanation of how the law shapes the distribution of wealth

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    In this revealing book, Katharina Pistor argues that the law selectively “codes” certain assets, endowing them with the capacity to protect and produce private wealth. With the right legal coding, any object, claim, or idea can be turned into capital―and lawyers are the keepers of the code. Pistor describes how they pick and choose among different legal systems and legal devices for the ones that best serve their clients’ needs, and how techniques that were first perfected centuries ago to code landholdings as capital are being used today to code stocks, bonds, ideas, and even expectations―assets that exist only in law.

    A powerful new way of thinking about one of the most pernicious problems of our time, The Code of Capital explores the different ways that debt, complex financial products, and other assets are coded to give financial advantage to their holders. This provocative book paints a troubling portrait of the pervasive global nature of the code, the people who shape it, and the governments that enforce it.