Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

No surprise that risk markets are wobbling on any sniff of trouble surrounding the US/China trade deal, as Trump throws the word “tariff” in the air again, which sent US stocks lower overnight, leaking into safe havens here in Asia.

Chinese stocks have reversed their recent bounceback, with the Shanghai Composite slumping nearly 0.8% lower to just above 2900 points while the Hang Seng Index has stumbled alongside, falling 0.6% to close just below 27000 points. Price is seemingly anchored at previous trailing ATR support and the resistance zone at 27000 points:

Japanese share markets were again unable to make headway due to a stronger Yen throughout the session as the Nikkei 225 closing 0.6% lower to 23148 points. The USDJPY pair continued its pullback today as negative momentum weighs on the USD, heading back to the mid 108s and almost back to last week’s intrasession low:

The ASX200 was the biggest loser, dragged down by the Westpac debacle – which fell more than 3% – as banks pulled the market 1.3% lower overall to close at 6722 points.   The Aussie dollar stabilised somewhat, hovering again just above the 68 handle here going into the City open, as it still struggle to join other undollar assets as the USD weakens:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are down between 0.2% and 0.6%, following the falls on Wall Street overnight. The S&P500 four hourly chart shows a short term pullback pattern on the bearish rising wedge breakdown, but this isn’t over until trailing ATR support is taken out at the 3100 points level.

The economic calendar has two major releases to watch out for tonight, namely the Canadian CPI and the release of the ECB financial stability review.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • those are massive deposits. is there are way to invest in Russian companies? Last time I checked on Commsec International Shares platform it does not list Russian companies.

  1. Alan kohler on 730 report touching on boomer entitlement and high immigration suppressing wage growth. But he throws his hands in the air and say we have no choice because it’s the only thing driving GDP.

  2. anyways, my wife just told me that her hairdresser’s son quit his plumbing job as his boss wanted him to work Saturdays without pay. The kid is second year apprentice.

    • Should have gone along with it, secretly recorded some incriminating conversation and dobbed them in. Now the plumber will just go and exploit someone else.

      • i think it is easier said than done. but if he could have done that the owner would have been in lot of trouble if there was a law here to offer genuine protection. you have to remember unless it is something the union is doing wrong then there is no interest to act. not under this current lot.
        A proper law would allow the kid to look for other jobs while this cvnt pays his full wages. no apprentice should be expected to go back to the same place if they fee intimidated. that will force few cvnts to play nice.

    • Blimey Australia hasn’t seen a struggling plumber in decades let alone one that needed to work weekends .. is this the real turning point ?

  3. Currently 1/2 way through this but it’s absolutely fascinating. Tracks neoliberalism back to Italy in the 20s, outlines it’s close ties to fascism and it’s stated intentions as a response to increased democratisation.

    Can recommend their other eps too.

    Radio War Nerd EP205 — Recovered History of Neoliberalism & Fascism, let’s play it!

  4. Anyone else see the 7.30 Report tonight with a boomer grey nomad couple who left school at 14 and 15 telling us how good they have it and lazy young people are? That’s how easy it was to get ahead back in the day, when even uneducated types could buy and pay off a house and amass a large super cache of wealth. Those young people who pay for their degrees, struggle with huge rent and still can’t score a deposit are loafers who could achieve similar outcomes if they just knuckled down. Unbelievable!

  5. Mining BoganMEMBER

    So, my shopping centre…

    I can breathlessly announce that the empty shop that once held the long time family butcher has a new tenant. It’s very exciting…another nail salon to go up against the three other establishments that offer nail salony stuff.

    So, to keep score…that will be eight empty shops and a few empty offices upstairs, multiple hairdressers and nail salons, two fried chickens, three bakeries, three cafes, four burger/fish and chips joints…one offering 20% off all burgers until Xmas, three pizza offerings, three two dollar shops, a gift shop that appears to be a front for drugs and overall a generally run down appearance.

    This is modern Australia.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        The everyman lunacy that took me on my quest of spending more time talking than working seems to have disappeared. My punters seem flat. One of my favourite rivers of gold was the old Serbian guy who always managed to work into the conversation a reference to how cheap lamb is in the old country. Every time. Now he’s just angry at Australia. No very cheap lamb. That’s the thing. Everyone is angry at Australia. There’s no lunacy in that.

        No lunacy, no street talk.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          I’ve actually been looking at Serbia lately (I have a few Serbian [and Croat] mates)

          These will set you back circa 210k AUD. Subotica is about an hour away from Budapest and has circa 100k punters.

          Wouldnt be everyones taste but there are times I figure it might not be too bad – particularly if everyone keeps the geopolitical tone down

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Old mate told me a while ago he wants to take the kids and grandkids back. No future for them here is his view.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            I actually know 2 lots of Russians who have recently returned to live in Sochi (where I have also thought of moving), and I would probably know maybe 3-4 lots of Serbs/Croats who have done the same over the last couple of years. A lot of these guys are working in plastering or other trades (housing related here) and their game plan is to go back when the work dries up to a degree here – I understand they have their issues with gangs of Indian trades types who keep undercutting them on jobs around the western burbs of Melbourne and the Belarine..

          • It also has some of the most beautiful women in the world in that area… shame I’m married now haha.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            I’m a big fan of that area from Budapest down to the south. I would go in a flash but alas lovey is very white bread and still getting over the shock of three weeks in Turkey for my 50th.

            If a foreign country isn’t Scotland or Canadia she be not much interested.

          • You might like Novi Sad better. More metropolitan and still very close to both Hungary and Romania.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            Part of the interest for me is that Free University in Slovenia is not far away (I have a high school age son) and as Gavin mentioned some of the talent in that nick of the woods (at the risk of seeming a bit sexist) can be damn fine. But the real upside would be to jump in the car and pop off to any one of a load of nearby cities

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Look, I’m sure one bar visit around 2000 is no reason to take anything for granted. But when it’s run by the female Serbian equivalent of the Godfather, speaking perfect English, and your in the Netherlands, and she owns the joint and is politely and unsolicitedly explaining why Serbs are the hard-cases of ALL of Europe and how things should have unfolded but for the UN, it’s hard not to take away a ‘stay the fcuk away message’; generally speaking. Nice coloured lights btw. West of Schevening, not the bar, I mean.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Hey I smell an opportunity there for some keen investor to get into a tattoo parlour and maybe even a tattoo removal joint

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Tattoo parlour does well. Lots of wannabe bikie types who don’t really scare anyone.

        Florist has dropped from four staff to owners running it all themselves. He’d be tougher than the wannabes. An immigrant from one of those countries we bombed the sh1t out of. Thinks Australia is sh1t now too.

      • You could chain up the Tattoo removal business really easily. Get it right and it is franchising mana. The only reason I didn’t pursue it was that the best model involved getting those who couldn’t afford it to go into debt. As TISM said, I might be a c*nt, but I’m not a f**king c*nt.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      > This is modern Australia.

      fckn bullsh111t.

      That’s what happens when you give dumb chunts the capability to spend money. Nothing to do with ‘Australia’. That is happening everywhere.

      See, didn’t even make any of that sexist. Despite the fact I’ve seen ONE bloke getting his feet done in one of those joints in my entire life. One.


    So this place was on the market in 2017, I needed to sign a non-disclaimer to read contract of sale. It was being offloaded by the Government and had some previous use issues. It was listed for $270k odd, but sold for $441k. I’m not surprised to see it back on the market today. You’ll need deep deep pocket to put it right. Personally I wasn’t willing to risk my own health.

    I wanted to convert into a house + garage/ the time.

    • The answer to that question is governments and central banks. They just can’t stop themselves from being corrupt and screwing over the middle and working classes. That is the only thing that gives things like bitcoin and gold their value. Otherwise there is little point to them.

  7. Forgot the word that must not be spoken – google the below ABC article – laughing at the indignity of Murdoch, I’m surprised he didn’t cut ties with them

    RMIT and Murdoch university cut ties with Prxnce Xxdrew’s [email protected] program

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I’m surprised we haven’t seen a business deal between the second son and Westpac what with all the child s3x stuff.

  8. Another restaurant chain down. $30 for a spag bol or $25 for a margarita pizza was always going to bring Criniti’s undone. Very expensive for what you got which wasn’t much. It’s ashame, feel for the staff but you do have to wonder about these business models.

  9. Pull out a big bottle of something and get this into you
    David Wallace: “The Uninhabitable Earth: Life after warming.”

    The frightening thing is that it isn’t scaremongering. We have just been spoken to as if we were innocent children who shouldn’t be bothered with the big scary problems of adults.

  10. Interested PartyMEMBER

    Sweden drops rape charges against Assange.

    Another hurdle cleared. Not long before he has his time to shine in the US Senate. His testimony will be a must watch.
    He will be fine. He’s basically in witness protection at this stage ( has been for a few years). Anyone calling for his release into public life either want’s him taken out, or is very naive to the big picture. He holds a key that breaks the DNC, and the DNC represents clinton.

  11. Interested PartyMEMBER

    Oh boy….here we go.
    “Child sex trafficking investigators from the FBI’s New York field office have conducted an interview with a victim who provided chilling details about allegedly being raped by Bill Clinton on a yacht in New England when the victim was a young boy.”

    Epstein didn’t kill himself.
    The britush number two son didn’t either..(in the future)— just a guess at this point
    Clinton might.
    Branson might also.

    In fact….several/many “unexplained high-profile sudden deaths/suicides have been booked in, so I am told.

    • A reasonable rationalization. I’d say that it misses the big thing that travel is not the problem, the mode of travel is. Whatever comes next may be inconvenient to shift to yet it will be necessary if the problem of climate change is attempted to be dealt with seriously and sincerely.