Macro Afternoon

Outside local stock markets, the rest of Asia is bullish coming out of the Friday night play on overseas markets, where risk taking remains strong as Wall Street reaches a new record high – again. The USD remains weak against most of the majors although gold is struggling to find buyers while the Aussie dollar is also unable to gain momentum from its Friday breakout.

Chinese stocks have started the week in a much better state with the Shanghai Composite playing closing nearly 0.5% higher to 2914 points while the Hang Seng Index has leapt 1% to be at 26612 points. Price is still well below previous trailing ATR support and the previous resistance zone but no new daily low in three sessions is keeping the selling at bay:

Japanese share markets also advanced with firm conviction, despite a flat Yen during the session as the Nikkei 225 closed nearly 0.5% higher to 23416 points. The USDJPY pair was flat today after its mild breakout on Friday night with momentum still not yet position despite price being above previous ATR support, now almost resistance at the 109 handle:

The ASX200 was the odd one out, dropping nearly 0.5% and unable to get back above the 6800 level, despite risk-on elsewhere, closing at 6766 points. The Aussie dollar was largely unchanged from its Friday night mini-surge with the Pacific Peso just hanging on above the 68 handle here going into the City open, as this swing move looks nearly finished already:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly, holding on to their gains from Friday night with the S&P500 four hourly chart clearly showing a lovely breakout above overhead resistance at the 3100 points level. While the longer term charts suggest a continuation, momentum is considerably oversold and ripe for a pullback on any whiff of bad news:

The economic calendar starts the week slowly as we reach the mid part of the month, with just a couple of ECB wonky reports and speeches to look out for tonight.

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Comments

  1. Read Keating’s speech. Nothing he says makes any sense. As per usual the chattering class will lap it up because his language is fun! “Elasticity of diplomacy”? Makes no sense

    • Interested PartyMEMBER

      Keating is pre-occupied at the moment.
      Seems his daughter Katherine is a person of interest regarding epstein. This epstein thing is expanding in all directions…..with the spectacle of a certain very high profile windsor family member swallowing his own grenade in the BBC interview.
      And now the US congress has requested answers from the ABC (usa) about who called in the cover-up of the information discovered 3 years ago. Project Veritas exposed the cover-up a week or so ago.
      Letter to abc……
      https://dailycaller.com/2019/11/17/kevin-mccarthy-letter-abc-jeffrey-epstein/

      yeah…..it will be entertaining watching keating’s immolation. I wonder how many mates he’s going to take down with him over this. Beazley? Carr?

      • has there been any explanation for that? The media has barely mentioned it.
        He knows people are finally starting to cotton on. All the language and personal insults can’t hide the fact that history will be a very harsh judge.

        “The reason we have ministers and cabinets is so that a greater, eclectic wisdom can be brought to bear on complex topics”

        Yes that’s right, ministers and cabinet exist not as a decision making body of government responsible to parliament but as an “eclectic” book club! He should have been a journalist.

        • Interested PartyMEMBER

          No explanation……crickets.
          They ( media ) have likely been muzzled by the media company owners boardrooms. The boardrooms have too many skeletons hidden away to have any recalcitrant members of the media poking around where they are not welcome. Disney owns ABC in the US. That company has had it’s share of kid related crimes, and that is just what we know….what else is hidden.

          https://www.cbr.com/disney-vice-president-michael-laney-prison-sex-abuse/
          ” sentenced to 81 months in prison for four counts of first-degree sexual abuse involving a 7-year-old girl. ”

          Disney cruises even scheduled trips to epsteins island for a while.

          Our keating’s daughter is part of a very large club, it seems.

  2. Banana ManMEMBER

    Was listening to some bloke from Ogilvy talking about behavioral economics with regard to purchasing. Basically he was saying that a 15 dollar item has a different value if marked down from 29.95 (common knowledge), but more interestingly, that same 15 dollar item seems 15% cheaper if paying via tap than entering a pin. If paying cash the item seemed much more expensive value proposition. Hadn’t heard of the tap vs pin thing before…

    • Heard of the cash vs prepaid credit card behavioural economics difference before but i dont think recall if PIN vs tap was part if it. Shows that the greater obstacles to payment the more people are likely to consider value. Do wonder what relative value is placed on transaction settled with After pay. Once set up it lowers payment obstacles. It is no wonder they want to ban cash.

    • Pay wave preys on impulsive actions; you see something, grab it and it’s yours with a quick swipe, no time to consider. Surprisingly, the simple act of entering a four digit pin is enough disrupt impulsive actions which of course retailers and banks don’t want you to do. Another round? Fvck yeh, swipe and you’re away. Alternatively, another round? Fvck no, can’t see the fvcken numbers!

      • This card carying tard has been known to forget their pin. Fortunately the sales assistant had no hesitation in splitting the transaction to get within the tap threshold. No pin required.

    • We bought a Mango at the supermarket on the weekend. I had cash so used self serve cash. Came to nearly $4. I thought geez that’s expensive. If it was on the card, probably wouldn’t have worried about it.

    • Only after the AFP raid his church, find the photos and there is a whole tortured redemption story to tell.

    • It’s poor form that some of those saying that Falou is showing poor form defended his last run of poor form. Perhaps they aren’t the astute commentators that they believe themselves to be. And if they were using him as a useful idiot then they are even more pathetic than the lad himself.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Guilty as charged your Honour. However, still defending his right to say generally stupid stuff. Glad I didn’t fund his go-fund-me. Apathy rules!

        Also, the stupid police (maybe there should be a hypen there), can finish with twitter before they take on Israel.
        Or Jordan.
        Or Pal E. Stein (old schoolmate).

  3. Working in Melbourne and walked up and down King St this evening.. Quite a few people out. Mostly vibrant. Heard one English conversation in about 1 km, with a heavy Indian accent.

    As Nikola says…fckn.

    Quite a few knocking shops though. Almost like home in Fyshwick.

  4. DM taking a dump on Andy, can’t post the link but it’s the one like

    Prince-Andy-partying-nightclubs-beautiful-young-women-French-Riviera.html

    Many amusing and enraging photos.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      So we still can’t say Andr3w eh?

      And here I was thinking it was either ‘ponce’ or ‘tosser’ that was causing my link about the good Dr Wilson to disappear…

    • That guy is a fcuking degenerate. And that’s really saying something among the House of Windsor men. His brother wanted to be a tampon, FFS. They’re all barking mad perverts with posh accents. If I had a choice between dinner at The Palace with HM The Q and all the other Windsors or a beer at the Bowlo with Ermo the Plumber, I’d be at the bowlo quick as a flash.

      • Look up the younger brothers of George Vl, including world war two activity.( although his older brother’sWorld War Two activities were pretty riveting also).
        Wikipedia lists an extraordinary catalogue of appalling behaviour.
        This is not the only recent problem person.
        Although one good thing about that interview- it leaves no one in doubt about the behaviour.

      • ErmingtonPlumbing

        The Brushpark bowo has been shut down.
        So I’ve been forced to climb a Social rung by frequenting the Eastwood bizzos instead.
        I’ve even started drinking Reschs there instead of Tooheys New,…lah di da
        You’ll find me there often between 3 and 4pm

  5. Interesting read on some of the open border stuff. https://mobile.twitter.com/DinaPomeranz/status/1196016384817283074

    It does read as very ideological with selective reasoning between the practical and the theoretical outcomes. Eg on one hand migrants do work local won’t do (because pay is to low) – practical outcome ok, even though theory says low wages for workers are the problem. On the other hand practical outcomes like water shortages and infrastructure crush-loading are not relevant because theoretically we can change this at a policy level (even though we know practically this won’t change).

    The self serving bias in the collective responsibility solutions are also painfully obvious, as is the modern progressive tendency to treat what is at best a well argued theory as a scientifically proven economic theory. Essentially the same problem we have with market economics.

    Although, after reading this stuff I’m proceeding with the plans to buy a few more houses, because this is the dominant economics for the foreseeable future.