Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Lunatic RBA discovers quantitiave easing drops Australian dollar

Here we go again! Its a real mixed day across Asia as tensions in Hong Kong jump, while inaction and bad messaging from Trump and the Chinese on the looming trade deal is seeing risk appetite erode across most of the complex. The USD is firming against most of the majors, and in particular Yuan but also the Aussie dollar.

Chinese stocks have fallen the hardest with the Shanghai Composite down nearly 2% going into the close, off to 2907 points while the Hang Seng Index is doing even worse, down by 2.8% to 26886 points and wiping out all of the previous week and bit breakout rally. This could get ominous as price retraces below the previously clear resistance level at 27000 points:

Japanese share markets are continuing to tread water with the Nikkei 225 putting in a small scratch session by falling 0.2% or so to 23331 points. This is due to steady Yen buying here on the weekend gap open with the previously well overbought USDJPY pair now breaching below the 109 handle as momentum starts to flip to the negative side, although not yet below the midweek breakdown previously:

The ASX200 has finally pushed higher and was the best in the region, lifting some 0.7% to 6772 points, matching the previous highs and poised to break higher – or is this a bull trap?  The lower Aussie dollar has helped, with the Pacific Peso ready to start the week with another new by pressuring under the mid 68’s:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are down with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price starting to pressure the lower band of the trend channel with ATR support at 3065 points the uncle point to watch tonight:

The economic calendar starts the week with 3Q UK GDP plus a couple of ECB wonk speeches to keep an ear out for.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    If only we knew what was going to break FIRST: HK – or reality upon the continuing multi-sided escape from reality that is the US-China trade ‘deal’.

      • Hard to say – most of the early payout would have gone straight back onto the ALP or some other event/game. I know a man who got an early payout and he decided to use all of the payout (plus a bit of extra cash) to bet on the ALP again!

        In 2011, Sportsbet paid out early to those who bet that Judd will win the Brownlow Medal. Judd actually came 5th in the 2011 Brownlow medal.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    And, Banana Man, I still think a banana-bag is a great place for a Lady Finger. Am I wrong?

  3. Kyle must be hurting with his shorts on HK and China so he spends most of his time on Twitter talking sh1te to a point where he is making an absolute bum of himself. He claims police killed the kid but another clip further down shows the kid was faking it and runs away. Another clip shows rioters or protesters setting on fire a man that did not agree with him but Kyle does not seem to be critical if he can’t pin it on the authorities. cvnt.

    I really hope the cvnt goes broke with his shorts.

    • “Kyle does not seem to be critical if he can’t pin it on the authorities.”

      Applies widely, media particularly.

    • Banana ManMEMBER

      I like Kyle. I can totally relate. Should blow any second now….oh wait, more gov’t intervention messing with sound money.

      • lol – all banks and all countries (well most, there is one that isn’t) are broke. So, sooner or later one will implode but I really hope China last long enough to burn that cvnt.
        btw – I am not defending China and I agree it is ruthless country and lot worse than US.

        • @Nikola, that’s harsh word used re KyleB! But apart from your generalised comments & harsh expletive what is your real beef re Kyle Bass? Did he do something that burned you or someone you know? Just asking. PS I have no idea re Kyle Bass or whatever he is or does & maybe I need some updating?.

          • he has shorts on HK and China and needs them to implode. In order to get there he is all day on Twitter talking down China and supporting HK riots. If he does that because he believes in democracy it’s fine with me. But he does that because he is chasing profits while people get hurt and die.
            On top of it he literary lied about the killing of that boy. Go and check his Tweet and scroll further down and you will see another person posted a clip how the boy got up and tried to run away from the police. But Kyle claims police killed him.
            If you scroll down you will see another clip of protesters setting on fire an older person who does not share their view. Where is Kyle to go hard on the protesters?? All he does is encouraging more violence so he can get his shorts into money. Typical Yankee policy – never let anything stand between you and profit.
            If he is so pro democracy why does he go hard against his own Gov for what they do in the ME and selling weapons to the least democratic country in the world – Saudi Arabia. The guys that chopped a journalist into pieces.

            That is my beef with that piece of sh1te.

      • Sound money … just got to love those bolt ons “sound” I mean its like marketing PR for cars like sex, strength, masculinity, smart, et al … when its an inanimate object.

        How about its just – money – and what people do with it determines most out comes, not the object itself.

      • agree. But Kyle has conflict of interest and he is not running campaigns against Saudi Arabia. I am not defending China – just to be clear. I know they are light years behind any form of democracy.

  4. Banana ManMEMBER

    Caught that fn bush turkey today and one of the goannas. Relocated both 49m away. Life is already better. It’s not so bad here in the bush, I learn so much. Gardening, solar, longevity of food. I only found out the difference between a lentil and a chick pea. Apparently in a free market (ceterus paribus) Reusa wouldn’t pay 300 bucks for a lentil on the face.

      • Banana ManMEMBER

        Bush turkey still lives, just a bit further up the road. Lupins look interesting, tks.
        I call old mate chook norris. hard af

        • Interested PartyMEMBER

          Bush turkey still lives? It will be back.

          Next time….take one freshly caught turkey, and place in empty wheely bin. Close lid. Take medium sized stick and thump side of bin for 1 minute… more…no less.
          Open lid.
          Goodbye turkey….it will not be back.

          Another turkey will soon take its place.
          Have beer.
          Repeat above process.

          • Banana ManMEMBER

            That is extremely sustainable. I like it. Does same thing work with capital city uber drivers?

          • Interested PartyMEMBER

            If they can fit in the bin….well, yeah…I s’pose it might.
            Video it for us. This could be funny.

          • Thanks for the legit LOL. Does it also work for middle level managers at big multinationals?

            PS: Why is the Bush Turkey that bad? What’s it doing?

          • Interested PartyMEMBER

            Gav…the Australian scrub turkey has a preponderance to disassemble, relocate, or invert any man made item that resembles a garden…..and carefully crafts it into shiltheap.

            edit to add….middle level managers? We are exploring new areas with this concept……please forward all videos to admin for verification and entertainment.

          • It’s just the 24/7 onslaught. Bushturkey works 0430-0900. Goannas at 1000-1630. Bush Turkey split shift starts again 1500-1730. Rodents- Mouse possum 1800-0430.
            As far as i can gather they have a plan.

          • Interested PartyMEMBER

            On a serious note….goanna bites can be nasty…all sorts of things goin on in their gobs..germs/viruses/diseases/ poisons….general death and mayhem stuff.
            Welding gloves help a bit. Take care with them.

    • You need a dog to fkoff the turkeys, cat[s] for the mice, and a big carpet snake for the possums … circle of life … is where you sit on something else menu …

        • Interested PartyMEMBER

          lol…you end up with a snake full of cat and dog….and turkeys can outrun a snake….so to goannas.

          It’s a temporary solution.

    • I recommend the air rifle for discouraging vermin in rural areas. Not one of the super duper hunting ones that’s as powerful as a.22, just your standard .177 break open.

      It’s noice n quiet and it’ll sting their ar$es and discourage them mightily without harming them. Fun, too.

      • desmodromicMEMBER

        A less stressful strategy is to ‘pay your taxes’ and learn to share the environment with the locals. They likely won’t put you out of business and provide benefits, often in unseen ways.

  5. don’t know if anyone watches football but I just finished watching Man City vs Liverpool and what a game. Man City wasted too many opportunities and lost the game as a result. But from technical point of view one of the best games I’ve seen in years.

    • I used to, back in the golden era with all our Socceroos performing well in the epl. Lost interest now, I think only Mooy and Ryan are representing us?

    • Klopp manages with his heart on his sleeve… enjoy watching them play …. Pep just annoys me … self-righteous , tiki taka crap….. at times they play fabulous stuffbut Pep tries to stop them to go back to play tappy tap….

      • The first 60 odd minutes that Liverpool midfield – Wijnaldum Fabinho and Henderson (which on paper doesnt quite resound the way man City’s does) played some inspired football – if they get Oxlade Chamberlain and Keita into form and can shuffle those five and Milner then they will be tough to catch (Their back 4 and front 3 speak for themselves) – though it is still far far too early to be talking titles.

      • Pep is ok. Man City players just waste too many chances. Pep can’t do much about that. He gets the strategy right but can’t go on the field and score for them.

    • An absolute belter of a game I agree. Liverpool were lucky with the Alexander Arnold handball (should have been a penalty for mine) but their goals were top shelf. And that last 20 minutes they were dead on their feet and I thought Man City would catch them, but basic shape at the back, held them out. I think the game at Etihad next time around (presuming Man City sort out their defensive frailty) will shape the EPL – though they (Man City) have a tough next month.

      • in the first 10min Man City could have scored 3 goals – the penalty plus two massive chances and they missed both. Then Aguero was selfish and did not cross back to De Bruyne in the second half I think – that should have been a goal – if Aguero did not go for a shot but simply cross back to the Belgian.
        I think, overall, Man City was better side but Liverpool were pure assassins – they converted almost every chance they created.
        Man City gets away with wasted chances against smaller teams as they get to create 15 scoring chances and end up scoring 3-4 goals – Liverpool only allowed them about 4 chances plus that penalty that the ref did not give.