Macro Afternoon

The ebullience from overnight markets has not translated into meaningful gains here in Asia with most bourses struggling with scratch results late in the session. The potential for a US China trade deal before Xmas is pushing risk appetites higher – but too high and too fast – so a retracement is inevitable. Gold is just holding on after breaking multi-week support overnight while the Aussie dollar can’t maintain above 69 cents against USD.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite gapped higher on the open but is struggling to hold on to those gains in the post lunch session, currently up only 0.2% or so at 2989 points and looking to close the week out just below the key 3000 point resistance level.  Meanwhile the Hang Seng Index is falling after getting ahead of itself, currently down 0.4% to 27726 points as the daily chart clearly shows an overextended rally after recently clearing the 27000 point level:

Japanese share markets are treading water but remain positive going into the close, with the Nikkei 225 up only 0.1% or so to 23366 points. The retracement in the well overbought USDJPY pair is abating as it reaches the 109 handle as momentum wanes going into the London session:

The ASX200 has been unable to translate its recent gains into a sustainable breakout, falling 0.2% and looking to head the week just above 6700 points. The lower Aussie dollar hasn’t helped as usual, with the Pacific Peso about to make a new weekly low and remaining under the 69 handle where it could threaten weekly support at the 68.75 level:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are falling slightly with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price at the lower band of the trend channel from last week’s breakout, with ATR support at 3060 points the uncle point to watch tonight:

The economic calendar finishes the week with the latest German trade balance and Canadian unemployment figures, but also a reweighing of UK sovereign debt by Moody’s. Have a good weekend and safe trading!

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Comments

  1. hey Chris.. are you able to expand on your morning comment what would be the basis for gold to go down to $1340? I know it is Friday but if you can drop a note on the weekend I, and few others, will really appreciate.

    • Not yet. Waiting for a train at T++w+ng… the one that was supposed to come 4 minutes ago was too express to stop, so now we’ve got a supplemental one showing up in uh… fsck-knows minutes.

        • Nah, I don’t drink alone. I’d rather head off home and get there whilst there’s still light

          Turns out there was a ‘police incident’ in east dipswich which is why the train was not stopping…

          I’m already on the GC express, just pulling out of Sth Brisbane … all good, I’ll be home at 6

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Really? Haven’t been there for years. You’d think with some of the money being thrown about that area they would punt the students and try to attract more worthy clientele.

          • Smells of cheap booze, urine and vomit worse than ever too…

            Few weeks ago I went to find the postal orifice and had the dubious privilege to inhale the fresh RE air… putrid springs to mind.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        You still have access to trains out in Tootong do you? Council obviously isn’t trying hard enough.

        Quite surprised that station hasn’t been converted to an Apartment building carpark.

        Is Two small rooms any good?

        • Been there for donkey years so there’s that, but then I stopped frequenting such a long time ago, save a few places up at Noosa during holiday season. Now if one lived in France or Italy that would be a different matter.

        • Yes, the train station is still there, the rail to Ipswich nether regions and B*ttf*ck Rosewood goes through there…

          … must not forget the vibrant city of (simpsons theme) Springfield (/simpsons theme) too… the scrote suburb to the s*thole that is Ipswich

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            B#ttf#ck Rosewood? Obviously you’ve never wandered around the magnificent old lady ‘Glendalough’. Or staggered between the Royal George and the Middle Pub.

            I represented for Rosewood and will not hear a bad word about it…no, actually, I was there three months ago and the place looks stuffed. Dry, dusty and worn out. Fancy trying to be a satellite town for Ipswich…

        • Two Small Rooms … now there’s a blast from the past. Used to be beautiful food and service … then a chef came through who, in my view, put the black mark on it. Then a truck ran thru the front of it. Thought that sealed it’s fate.
          I just checked and it is actually still open with some good reviews …………

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            My comment way is no way a reflection on any of those subjects, only on council building approvals, and what can get approved into a building these days.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Damn right he’d never look back if he took a Bentley home. He’d be too busy dodging oncoming traffic in the wrong lane while evading police and hoping the RE Agent he stole it off wouldn’t press charges to do that.

    • hey cvnt i’m doing up my first ever guitar (black LP copy Emperador Japanese early 80s.)

      Vintage Gotoh locking machine heads (arrived today), getting my luthier to put in, I do all the other stuff.

      Gotoh tuneomatic bridge and tailpiece already installed. Filed to radius (12”) and polished saddle grooves, intonation done.

      Tonerider rebel P90s already installed (the best P90s I’ve found)

      Making new unbleached bone nut

      Fret smooth, recrown and polish

      After this then getting the conductive paint and copper tape to isolate the pickup cavities.

      It’s FCKEN awesome!

    • Any company with a good work ethic and the right morals can turn a profit. It is their own failings that led to this situation. I’m very disappointed with Newscorp for assisting them. They will never be able to stand in their own two feet if they come to expect handouts whenever things get difficult. I just hope that all the corporate credit cards and paychecks are replaced with a basics cards and that all staff, especially the the executive, are drug tested first thing in the morning, after lunch, before going home and midnight on Friday, Saturday and all public holidays. We can’t have these reckless degenerates been given any autonomy until they have proven themselves to be responsible members of society.

    • “News Corp said Australia’s sluggish economy and property slump have weighed on its earnings after reporting a $US211 million ($305.8 million) net loss for the first quarter after writing down the value of its US marketing business.”

      Sluggish economy and property slump? Hope they’ve got the OK from Scomo to say things like that!

    • Didn’t they try this with ATSIC, you know, only Aboriginal people can solve Aboriginal problems? Was a dysfunctional organisation from the outset that ended with corruption scandals. Hope they do better next time around.

    • interested partyMEMBER

      Ha…..brings back memories of the camp dogs in Warburton WA……slept in swag with a tyre spanner in my hand. Petrol sniffing is bad out that way. LoL……face to face with a big mongrel dog at 3 am in the dark…..shat meself, well….very nearly.

  2. Ronin8317MEMBER

    I see a lot of poster don’t understand the real implication of Bloomberg entering the US presidential race. Win or lose, it means the end of US politics as we know it : all presidential candidate will be billionaires from now in. The puppet master is no longer content too hold the strings and will come onto the stage instead.

    The key is turnout. Deomcrats will win if they can get a high enough turnout, and Bloomberg has a lot of money to make that happen. He does not really want to run, but the Democrat’s obsession with impeachment is a losing strategy, all the candidates are weak, so he wants better values for his money.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    Funny story. My union signed me up to get a free copy of the New Daily. Every day. Without asking me. And sent me three fckn emails about nothing relevant to me today. One of which had a highlight of a side by side fridge for 1700 bucks.

    Never clicked on so many unsubscribe links in three minutes before ever.

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