Macro Afternoon

The failure to strike a US China trade deal continues to weigh on markets here in Asia as signs are mounting that all the posturing and posing by Chairman Pooh and President Wiggum is just that: a show. Stocks are looking rocky going into the northern hemisphere session and the USD continues to firm against everything except Yuan with gold making a small comeback amongst the uncertainty.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite has eked out a minor scratch session, closing a couple points higher but remaining below the key 3000 point resistance level.  Meanwhile the Hang Seng Index is slipping even further, down 0.3% to 27592 points and looking toppy here on the daily chart after only recently clearing the 27000 point level:

Japanese share markets are treading water as the stronger Yen and lack of optimism weighs, the Nikkei 225 closing only 0.1% higher at 23330 points. The feared retracement in the overbough USDJPY pair is slowly developing into a risk off mood as it pushes below the 109 handle but remains above trailing ATR support:

The ASX200 is the darling in the region, lifting exactly 1% on the back of a reversal in fortune for bank stocks, closing at 6726 points and helped by a lower Aussie dollar which is pushing well below the 69 handle and is struggling here right around weekly support at the 68.75 level:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are steady with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing a retracement turning into a sideways trend with a tight line of support and resistance forming, with ATR support at 3050 points the uncle point going forward:

The economic calendar is stacked with some important releases tonight, first in Europe (or ex-Europe, pining for the fjords Europe) its the BOE meeting and Governor’s press conference, plus the latest EU economic forecasts.

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Comments

  1. Selling out another public facility to support the population ponzi. They spin it as though the residents wanting to use the existing facility are the bad guys.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-06/dapto-dogs-closure-disputed-by-greyhound-racing-nsw/11677118

    “Dapto is a rapidly growing community and there is a great need to build recreational facilities for families and children … and sustaining an activity at the expense of developing new community infrastructure is a decision that can’t be justified.”

  2. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-can-t-become-a-grievance-focused-organisation-election-review-20191107-p538gl.html

    “The report relied on detailed study of the election result to warn that Labor suffered swings against it from Christians, coal mining communities, Chinese Australians, Queenslanders and younger voters in outer suburbs.

    In an alarming finding for the future, the analysis found voters in the 25 to 34 age group swung against Labor by 4 per cent.”

    Labor to become even more open-borders globalist (since the youth love that) but also pro-coal.

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      It’s good to see that you (like me) is concern about the direction the ALP is taking Mr Dutton.
      But I’ve gotta ask mate,…why are you Such a Cvnt?
      Is it just the “Ex Qld Copper” thing or is there more to it?

    • My kid is 22. He and his male friends all voted liberal, less so their female friends who were often keen Green and vegan(ish). Anecdotally this was common amongst my friends and colleagues who have boys.. Something is going on.

        • You. You. Almost single-handedly dragged MB into the gutter – not quite fair – many accomplices.

          Is this where a 21st century political and economics site wants to be. Is this attractive to female contributors, to men who love their wives and daughters, but mostly, is it in pertinent!

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            LOL. If this is some kind of anti-reusa 3d parody-account, all I can say is, more please.

            Priceless. Thanks!

          • By the way, which 1 are you talking about? Or are we all guilty of this gutter talk? I’d say the big things to worry about these days are climate change, housing affordability and a global economy going ex-growth. But sure, it’s gutter talk that’s the real problem in society..

          • I now see why they let you back in old mate, & for free – good luck if you think you can bring it back to what it was, things have changed & not only is your spin turf minimal, there’s a lot more Noise to Signal. I think it’s their way of coping with the non stop barrage of social & political absurdities thrust upon them on a daily basis – something MB has to be accountable for too. While there’s not a lot of positive things going on, there’s little positive news printed here, which isn’t always conducive to everybody’s mental health. MB’s reading between the lines & the commentariats insights is why I pay up, I learn a lot, but I need to read other stuff just to keep myself balanced – well as best as anyone can be.

            Perhaps not always appropriate, but their insights when serious are quite sharp! If you look outside your IPA mining pit you might see it’s not just the incels here thinking this way, in fact we’re probably far behind in the Planet’s unhingement! Although no one would know that via the comatosing MSM.

            And most here don’t have bags of smoke & mirror Agenda’s……! Or at least are fairly transparent about who they are. You’ve always been respectful, albeit subtly deceitful, imo – but that’s also possibly just me not being as perceptive as others….. What happened to Mig?

          • Surely there’s Reddit thread somewhere!

            The MB guys have done this for near ten years. Completely woke the comatose Oz media. Changed the dialogue on many levels. Even where I don’t agree, respect.

            Not what the casual reader may see now, nor understand. imo.

          • oddly enough I agree. I don’t really understand it either; do people not get enough empty chit chat in their lives?

        • Also, if you’d just shut up a bit MB could crack that crucial non-shutin chick demographic that would launch them into the stratophere.

          Amirite Peachy?

      • “Something would be going on” if a bunch of silver spoon lads were voting anything else except Liberal.

        As it stands your anecdote is breathtakingly predictable.

    • “Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, who will respond to the report on Friday, is being urged to win back blue-collar workers without risking the party’s support on progressive social issues”

      “Labor cannot abandon its commitment to social justice but it must reconnect with low-income voters in the outer suburbs and regions,” said the report by former South Australian premier Jay Weatherill and former federal cabinet minister Craig Emerson

      That’s the problem right there. They won’t win back workers (of any collar type) unless they completely boycott all social justice/identity issues. Note that’s why they are popular in the States because state Labor governments are less in the media, have a narrow remit so focus on building stuff rather than fun!
      It is actually binary despite what someone else says. Because the identity issues 1) split the labour movement and 2) create a pretence that power is organised according to identity rather than the reality that it’s organised according to wealth (or control over wealth).
      Once you clear up why and where power sits you can then build a mass party; stuff around with that and you create disorientation and a collapsing primary vote.
      Identityism has been an unmitigated disaster.
      it should be remembered that Labor only went down the identityist route under Keating after they consciously abandoned workers in the 80s. So chronologically speaking it also makes sense that they need to firstly abandon the fun! and then expel Keating to win them back.

      • Just as the union movement has abandoned workers, so too Labor. Most powerful unions represent majority older female workforce on comparatively good conditions in health, edu or welfare. Barely a traditional “blue collar” in sight. In fact, blue collar horrifies the typical Labor student politics grad. Yikes!!

        It’s Labor v Greens and if Libs are smart they’ll pick up the rest.

        • If you revisit the 1980s you will see that the first generation of professional tertiary educated union “leaders” (not the movement) consolidated the unions and exchanged the movements industrial power for promises of a non existent social wage for their members and a promising career for themselves. eg. industrial power (the foundation of political power) was exchanged for careers. Did the BLF abandon workers or did Labor abandon the BLF? If Labor abandoned the BLF, who abandoned workers?

          The collar debate is more identityist garbage. The division is between those who need to work (ie the 99%) and those who don’t. even those confused members of the 99% with token out of the money options in their employers stock and heavily gouged superannuation at the mercy of market forces.

          • Eloquent. And largely correct. This is essentially Labor’s conflict. They can no embrace the “worker” no longer a worker’s party. Nothing horrifies a Labor uni ed student pol afficianado than a non educated bogan working the mines on $200k a year.

          • So cut them off. They represent about 9% of the electorate. If they vote LNP so be it. In 6 years time when post graduation reality has knocked them over the head they’ll return to the ALP provided the ALP maintains a consistent message.

          • I think the attitude is imbued.

            The assessment: intelligent university educated climate aware global citizens voted for us. The rest: religious, poorly educated and dumb, probably from Queenland ie rednecks, did not.

            Labor is no longer Labor.

            Chris Hedges
            https://youtu.be/NNrDej7aXMs

          • desmodromicMEMBER

            Ah, the BLF and the good old days–I don’t miss them! Norm Gallagher, Jack Mundey and Steve Black in endless disputes with Costains and Grocon. In the days when building sites worked a 6-day week, on average we lost about half a day to industrial disputes because every on-site issue required a court order to get fixed. Nonetheless I was paid very well.

        • Am laughing hard at the sight of Chris Bowen claiming his policies had no impact and Shorten had just been abandoned by traditional ALP voters. Yeah. Albanese needs to acquire industrial deafness to this lot and focus on making himself electable to the centre as well as the tradies. He has a good chance next time but he has to straighten his lot out and drop the dead wood. Which includes Chris ‘Big target ‘ Bowen.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Makes sense. LNP is pro get-rich-quick-from-someone-elses-debt which is pretty much all these kids know.

      Also, the kids need to be gifted with a house-shaped lump of debt to get rich because there’s no jobs and no wage inflation if they do manage to get one.

      So LNP all the way!
      The only solution for Labor is to be more Liberal-like than the Liberals and double down on the debt economy and house prices and make it easier for the rich to get richer.

      Maybe labor could introduce a “poor tax”? That’d be a winner!

  3. TheRedEconomistMEMBER

    AMP looking to break through $2.

    Yes I am a holder if there shares, but alway nervous when the majors banks talk about how much the remediation is costing them.

  4. The neoliberal utopia evokes powerful belief – the free trade faith – not only among those who live off it, such as financiers, the owners and managers of large corporations, etc., but also among those, such as high-level government officials and politicians, who derive their justification for existing from it. For they sanctify the power of markets in the name of economic efficiency, which requires the elimination of administrative or political barriers capable of inconveniencing the owners of capital in their individual quest for the maximisation of individual profit, which has been turned into a model of rationality. They want independent central banks. And they preach the subordination of nation-states to the requirements of economic freedom for the masters of the economy, with the suppression of any regulation of any market, beginning with the labour market, the prohibition of deficits and inflation, the general privatisation of public services, and the reduction of public and social expenses.

    Economists may not necessarily share the economic and social interests of the true believers and may have a variety of individual psychic states regarding the economic and social effects of the utopia which they cloak with mathematical reason. Nevertheless, they have enough specific interests in the field of economic science to contribute decisively to the production and reproduction of belief in the neoliberal utopia. Separated from the realities of the economic and social world by their existence and above all by their intellectual formation, which is most frequently purely abstract, bookish, and theoretical, they are particularly inclined to confuse the things of logic with the logic of things. – Pierre Bourdieu

    • it’s not that surprising – if a derro fwit like Scomo can make himself rich on the back of it, why they hell wouldn’t he believe it at a fundamentalist level?

    • “Nevertheless, they have enough specific interests in the field of economic science to contribute decisively to the production and reproduction of belief in the neoliberal utopia”.

      I disagree. Neoliberal prescription has never been supported by economic theory. All Friedman’s neoliberal beliefs for example were totally independent to his writing on monetary economics. He got standing from his work on economics and then used it to promote prejudices which he would have had even if he’d never read a word of economics.

      • Lmmao Sweeper …. He and Stigler were writing illegal propaganda for the developer lobby in the 1950s, a fervent Corporatist that forwarded the share holder value meme, his monetarist beliefs were refuted back in Thatchers and Rayguns neoliberal red carpet roll out [how far off again on the GBP was he – 6000% lol] and lets not forget all the good works of the Chicago school in the U.S. and abroad.

        One minute your banging on about Unions and the next defending Milton the great destroyer FFS … he alone did more to usher in globalism and free markets and all that came with it than most of the rest – proverbial poster boy for neoliberalism. The Chicago boys and Born … there’s that great IQ minds and Machismo working for everyone again … cough Greenspan … chortle I though you detested libertarians …

        https://www.nsfwcorp.com/dispatch/milton-friedman/

        That includes plutocracy, inverted totalitarianism, and reduced democracy.

      • I’m not defending him. I’m saying his neoliberal prescriptions were unrelated to his economic work. His economic stuff (which was just oversimplified Keynesian demand for money stuff) was just resume building to give his neoliberal prejudices credibility.
        eg. shareholder value meme as you put it. No support for it anywhere in economic theory

        • ErmingtonPlumbing

          Good thread guys.
          I blame you 2 for my going to bed hours later than planned.
          That Bourdieu bloke is an interesting fella Skip.
          Wouldn’t mind reading that book of his that calls out the passive aggressive and oppressive nature of wine [email protected]
          I’m looking at you Harry

          • EP just go look at how many Chicago school economists were recipients of the so called Noble Prize, say compared to everyone else and everywhere else.

            One gets the distinct feeling that either it manufactures the smartest people on the planet or someone is stocking the pond.

        • Huh …. demand for money stuff and IR … wellie money is observably emergent (the two lines can be parallel). Just saying things like “there is a straight LM curve and this and that is exogenous” is not an answer – its a tautology.

          Not to mention applying it to all nations at once regardless of policies and social ramifications from language induced culture variants like time and space are static.

          Must be a thing infecting some economists like Milton, you know how Krugman was a globalist during the 90s and made good use of his New York Times op-ed [journalism] in brow beating anyone that questioned it “silly” …. now who is eating crow Greenspan mea culp style. Wonder what his next perch will be considering his predecessors.

  5. The deluge of corruption stories surtout this Government has gone beyond disbelief to mind numbing. Next stage; acceptance.

    “Company running government call centre hired to assess grants for regional jobs scheme”

    A company that was originally hired to run a call centre was roped into assessing grants for the Coalition’s $220 million regional jobs program. The $3.15 million contract was also awarded without a tender or quotes from any other companies.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6478257/company-running-government-call-centre-hired-to-assess-grants-for-regional-jobs-scheme

  6. as I called it in the Macro Morning it seems China and US are making up again and gold is going down. Hope it hits $1475usd by tomorrow morning.
    There will be some buying opps for:
    SAR below 3.40
    SBM below 2.65
    RRL below 4.70
    ALK below 60c
    AMI below 47c
    NCM (long shot but possible if gold prices stay down for a week or two) below $27

    Enjoy cvnts.

        • I really enjoy Stephen King novels of the time.

          He’s rushing on first success and alcohol and I suspect stimulants and the stories and characterisations and imagery are so vibrant (sorry to use that term).

          I can remember in my early 20s needing to go to work the next day and not being able to put down Misery after it came out before the movie. An intense memory of harry’s internal monologue:

          Morning harry: Time for you to sleep now.
          Night harry: Just 10 more pages.

          20 minutes later.

          Morning harry: OK that’s it
          Night harry: I’ll just finish this chapter.

          etc

          etc

          7.00am
          Morning harry: You fvckwit.
          Night harry: zzzzzzzzz

  7. ErmingtonPlumbing

    The Pr!cks who run Carlingford Bowling club have just recently closed the Brush Park Bowlo,…my local drinking hole!
    Since then our cohort has been scattered between drinking at The family inn, The Ryde Parramatta Golf club, Dundas sports club and Eastwood Bizzos.
    Today it was Beers at Club Eastwood “the Bizzo”.
    It was Quite busy with a good crowd but jeez the parking is Shyte at Eastwood and all my Tooheys New comrades have gone over to drinking Resch’s!
    It is a nice drop but this is all a little bit to much change!

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