Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Bonds, not stocks or houses, are pointing to Australia’s future

The outright optimism from a finalisation of a trade deal between US and China yesterday has been switched to that of caution with most stock markets putting in scratch sessions in response to the stall on Wall Street overnight. The Kiwi is dropping on an unexpected rise in New Zealand unemployment rate while the Aussie dollar is just holding above 69 cents as commodities remain strongly bid.

In mainland China, after cracking through the 3000 point level previously, the Shanghai Composite is in retracement mode going into the close, down 0.4% to 2980 points and unable to gain any traction. Meanwhile the Hang Seng Index is putting in a scratch session, currently up only 0.1% to 27719 points after recently clearing the 27000 point level and the weekly downtrend line last week:

Japanese share markets have also abated somewhat following the big surge yesterday with the Nikkei 225 closing only 0.2% higher at 23297 points. This was despite a huge leap in the USDJPY pair overnight, but during the Asian session Yen buyers have stepped in to pull back to just above the 109 handle:

The ASX200 is the worst in the region, falling a solid 0.5% in the risk off mood to be at 6660 points, despite a lower Aussie dollar overnight. The Pacific Peso fell back below the 69 handle and is struggling here just above weekly support at the 68.75 level:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are down slightly with the S&P500 four hourly chart  showing a retracement below a firming bearish rising wedge pattern with the terminus just above ATR support at 3050 points which bears (sic) watching:

The economic calendar tonight is very Euro-centric, with factory orders and services PMIs dominating while in the US there’s some more Fed speeches to keep an ear out for.

Comments

  1. GunnamattaMEMBER

    A government with Sweet FA credibility has confessed to borrowing some from a public sector agency…….

    Liberal Party figure admits Chinese-language federal election signs were meant to look like AEC material
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-06/josh-frydenberg-gladys-liu-high-court-challenges-election-result/11675738?section=politics

    Liberal official admits Chinese language signs were meant to look like they came from AEC
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/06/liberal-official-admits-chinese-language-signs-were-meant-to-look-like-they-came-from-aec

    Liberal admits election day signs were designed to create false impression
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/key-liberal-figure-admits-chinese-language-corflutes-designed-to-look-like-aec-20191106-p537yg.html

    They’ve gone from big noting back slapping hallelujah smug to policy bereft incompetents in six months….and the Ozeconomy is about to shoot the rapids

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      What I don’t understand is why they’ve just admitted to the crime straight up. This mob is straight out filth who never admit to anything.

      I’m guessing the fix is already in.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Much like your good-self and Scott Morrison the Honorable PM, I’m totally confuciused by this strategy too.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          That’s all well and good, but surely if there’s a re-election the Chisholm mole would have to be struggling and there goes Scummo’s Chinaman advantage.

          Although…maybe the Hungarian would like to lose so he doesn’t have to keep up the fibs about strong economy and whatnot.

          • We all know how this will end, our favourite CCP operative and the Hungarian will breeze through, nothing to see. It’ll take a lot more to dislodge a couple of Liberals to force an election besides the minor indiscretions Liu and Fraudentreasuer have been found not guilty of.

      • Is it a crime?

        I recall Chris Bowen going Orange in the Gillard era and I never mistook him for Sheela nor the Bhagwan.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Maybe they’ve just realised Recession is imminent and are now panicking.
        Wanting to throw the election,…post election!

        Or alternat theory.

        Maybe they got some big dirt on the ALP re China influence and want to fk Liu out of the party a period of time before they strike.
        What’s the earliest they can call another election?

        3rd theory

        They are just dumb Cvnts.

    • The LNP were always policy bereft incompetents before the election they never expected to win and it shows

      • proofreadersMEMBER

        They had a go and they got a go at rubbing our faces in it and because Straya is so apathetic/comotose, it worked and will forever.

    • Your kidding right gov been lending of our super for years you boys don’t understand how to looky here not over there lololol

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    Well Mig’s revival was Christlike indeed. Back for a couple of days, and then off back to the ether.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    At the risk of beating a dead whorse, can we get some official recognition for Bill E. going on MB please? I don’t care who he’s doing to get the inside track on the RBA movements, but he has, and that’s what really matters. In fact, he seems to have his finger so close to the pulse of the RBA one can only assume he’s measuring it via Phil’s prostrate.

    If we can’t stump up for errecting a statue, how about an annual Bill E. day? We could do a few little things to mark the occassion each year, like changing the MB fox over to a similarly styled line-drawing of Bill E. for the day for example. I have some skills in this area and would be happy to donate my time and IP. It’s a worthy cause. haroldus could write the anthem for the day that autoplays whenever the home page loads.

    • Could it really tank the global economy? People just shift their disposable income to a different industry.

      • There you go again with the ‘temporarily embarrassed millionaire’ thing: they think they have something to lose when in fact they’ve already lost what they never had!

        ‘Will be’ – fuh! Already is!

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      The Farmers Federation lady looked like she wanted to pull out a gun and shoot the mouthy bastard in the face.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      So if we are to dramatically reduce water use for agricultural production to return Said water to the environment and to allow indigenous people to live traditionally of the land, how can we continue to keep increasing our population at the highest rate in the OECD?

      I remember reading somewhere that the Biodiversity of pre agriculture Britian was only capable of sustaining a human population of 2-300 thousand people.
      What size human population could Australia sustain using traditional indigenous food producing methods?

      It was a good impassioned speech against Greed, courption and Capitalism from old mate but what solutions did he actually offer?

      • desmodromicMEMBER

        EP he wasn’t suggesting a return to a subsistence existence but the restoration of culturally significant resources. The solution suggested was put the water back into the river, simply really. Instead narrow interests extract water, even on low flows, and various governments have sold water rights to offshore interests that have no investment in the health of the locals or the environment. Poet, painter, fisher or indigenous have only a small voice in the management of water resources compared to those that want to use water for profit. The reckoning has arrived and the answer to your question is ‘we can’t’, the land is dying.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          I’m all for the democratisation of decision making and liked, and agreed with, all the criticisms made by old mate.
          I just didn’t hear any solutions being offered other than to “Return” the water that as you point out isn’t there.

  4. David sinclair says I can live for ever feed me Seymour if you got money you live for ever has their ever been a better time to remove money from the stupid and live for ever only australia

    • Not in Aus. Protests will be banned. And you’ll be thankful your 12 year old daughter was strip searched. Sounds like facism to me…