See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Outside of Australia, stock markets here in Asia are bursting in hope and optimism, with new record highs from Wall Street overnight translating into big gains across the region. Japanese stocks were the highest, led by a big selloff in safe haven Yen, while today’s RBA meeting has translated into a big lift in Aussie dollar, now back above 69 cents against USD.
In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite has finally cracked the 3000 point level by lifting nearly 1% to 3005, while the Hang Seng Index is lagging but still performing well, up 0.7% to 27717 points going into the close. Having cleared the 27000 point level, and the weekly downtrend line last week, its plain sailing here:

Japanese share markets reopened from their long weekend playing catchup and then some, with the Nikkei 225 leaping nearly 2% higher to close at 23299 points. This was mainly due to a surge in Yen selling, sending the USDJPY pair back to its mid point of control from last week before the NFP selloff, turning this swing play into a possible new trend as the 109 handle approaches:

The ASX200 is the wet blanket, barely eking out any gains, by closing only 0.15% higher to just below 6700 points, as traders would rather put a punt on the ponies. The Aussie dollar lifted up to and just above the 69 handle on the latest but quiet hold from the RBA, bouncing off weekly support at the 68.75 level:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly with the S&P500 four hourly chart still showing a stretched overshoot as the record highs pile up on each other, but I’m wary of another bearish rising wedge forming here, using ATR support as an uncle point would prove prudent:

The economic calendar tonight is relatively quiet, with the main focus being the September trade balance numbers for the US later in the session.
- Macro Afternoon - January 22, 2021
- Macro Morning - January 22, 2021
- Macro Afternoon - January 21, 2021
The central scenario is for the Australian economy to grow by around 2.25 per cent this year and then for growth gradually to pick up to around 3 per cent in 2021,” he said. “The low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, the upswing in housing prices in some markets and a brighter outlook for the resources sector should all support growth.
Brighter outlook ?
Your rewriting is simply brilliant.
I blame it all on Greenspan : he was the Central Banker who started the whole obsession with Central Bank policy speech by making it hard to understand. The ‘market’ unfortunately mistaken the inability to communicate properly as brilliance, and Central Bankers all over the world started to imitate him as well. The plain speech version is so much better.
The cvnt fvcked around ignoring all the warning signs as the economy imploded then had the audacity to say “fvck me, didn’t see that coming!”. Couldn’t believe that years later, Greenspan was asked for his opinion on economic events.
Is Josh taking a page out of Greenspans’ book?
Yes, but not on purpose. You can’t fix stupid.
Greenspam, the man who couldn’t say “no”.
The man who decided that the taboo of interest rate manipulation was probably not as bad an idea as everyone before him said it was.
“…leading to speculation about the word ‘unconventional’ in relation to monetary policy…”
“Unconventional” is probably befitting for interest rate manipulation.
“Outright ludicrous, bordering on the absurd” describes QE quite well.
“Monetary insanity” is apt for anything they will try next…
Buy another house and carry on.
#BAHACO
Solid gold Gunna!
Extraordinarily clever and perceptive stuff, Gunna. Make sure your doors are locked. And that you don’t live there anymore.
+10
Pure gold, should be sent to every Central Banker. Have you applied for a spot at “Mad as hell” or MAD magazine.
Sadly MAD magazine has effectively shut down due to the impossibility of satirising American society. Reality provided too much competition.
Nicely put.
I like the expression ‘moist flatulence end of the spectrum’ – and the rest.
If you arent writing for someone you should be
Mmmmm, I sense a secondary boycott against the government’s position. Careful, might find yourself sitting next to a public servant from the Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme.
Re:
Specufestors in high-rise apartments
Jimmy Grants who were promised high paying jobs
Investors who were promised amazing capital gains on their vacant land in Tarneit
Students who were promised high-paid careers in film directing by VTF colleges
etc, etc, etc.
There is a saying:
You cannot con an honest man
Young people wanting to work in film are dishonest?
Well, Ermo. Not intrinsically. It was a metaphor.
I suppose I can explain my thinking by pointing out another MB article today, about VC colleges ripping off both students and government money. One I know of in particular was a fillum school in Sydney, now denied funding. They were denied funding because they were training students for a career where there are, perhaps, two vacancies a year in Australia. My point was that it is either naive or disingenuous, probably both, for the students to complain that they didn’t get the promised high-paid career. Maybe it’s my imagination, but I think honest people do not expect easy rides to success.
So, a bit convoluted, but that’s how I came to include that line of text
I’m not quite sure where it fits in this conversation but I have a friend who is an experienced and qualified cinematographer who has been working in a bottle shop for over a decade. Not only is the work not there but there is no sign that it will be again in the future.
Obviously you can con an honest man.
A lot of cons rely on getting victims to go along with something dishonest so they don’t go to the police later.
But you can con someone honest quite easily, you just lie to them.
Hi Arrow. I usually agree with you. But not really on this one. I think an honest man is acutely aware of the balance of effort and return. If I lie to him and promise something which results in a return to him which will far exceed his input, then he should immediately become suspicious. He understands the relationship between work and return.
My definition above, of course, immediately makes all speculators dis-honest people. I am prepared to go with that
Yeah, maybe, but they could just be naive, that’s different from being dishonest. Like, is it a con if you just want an apartment to live in, they promise you a high standard of construction and are certified, then it falls down and when you go to claim against the builder they’ve phoenixed? I’d say the victim was naive and easily conned, but not dishonest…
Anyway, why quibble, if we just string up all the developers AND speculators it will actually go a fair way to improving the place so hey… 😁
I empathise with the intent but have to disagree with the language.
Greedy and Honest are not on the same spectrum. You can be greedy and dishonest. You can also be selfless and dishonest. One is your comfort with the true, the other is how you value (or not) the accumulation of stuff.
Greedy and Gullible are also not the same axis.
You could have Selfless / Greedy; and Sceptical / Gullible and chart ppl. You could also have Honest / Dishonest against whatever characteristic you like.
Everybody except the RBA numpties sees weakness in eceonomy and growth prospects
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-05/australia-holds-key-rate-wagers-housing-revival-to-lift-spirits?srnd=premium-asia
When things get serious, you need to lie.
Indeed, and that soon exposes who has been living a lie – nudge, nudge, wink, wink.
I’m sure they can see it but you’re not to say so unless it agrees with the government’s view.
It is as obvious as Howard’s eyebrows or Abbott’s ears but to admit it is heresey.
Once you admit it, shit gets real.
Better to just pretend that nobody knows and carry on with the status quo.
I drove past a restaurant at 2 pm today and its bright spotlights are on. The restaurant is shut today due to a public holiday. It has no solar panels either.
# struggling restaurants
So you never accidentally left a light / power / appliance on ? Ever ?
The bright spotlights were on all day today too.
3 brand new eateries on my high street (I’ve found myself using this pommie term alot) closed down within months of opening and have been closed a couple of months now. All have around 50% of their lights and neon signs going full bore inside and out 24/7. Not sure how commercial power bills work but surely they cut you off at some point….
ha ha ha!
That is crazy. The restaurants have gone out of business but the lights are still on full blast!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/uber-reports-1-74-billion-loss-fears-employees-selling-off-their-stock-20191105-p537js.html
Haha. Good.
What dumbfounds me is how Uber can post losses. What exactly are they spending so much money on? They scrape a large percentage off their drivers and all they have in the case of infrastructure is an app? Where the fvck is all the money going?
Paying vibrant slaves bugger all to drive punters around is a cash cow that produces rivers of gold. Unfortunately they’ve blown all their dough on all sorts of speculation… Uber Eats, AI research into driverless cars, strange acquisitions and a pile of other random sh1te. They may have a plan, but it just looks to me like greedy children with no morals enjoying spending other people’s money. Moral hazard writ large.
Yep bogus research and highfaluting non-strategies. Tsk. What happened to the old 80s ethos of just steal it all? The new generation… makes me shake my head in disbelief!
Ah, sounds a bit like a government?
Even the guys who ran Enron would blush! 😀
How Reusa captures the hearts and souls of young impressionable types. He just walks them through is property porn portfolios ..
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/nov/04/how-a-cash-strapped-generation-fell-for-the-fantasy-world-of-the-modern-house
Find something more wholesome to do with your time, young man
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlncX0hIoQ8
haha, saw that video earlier today. Some of the details in the beginning are inaccurate but otherwise a good review. Which reminds me now that I’ve shipped my RX-7 down to Melbourne I can get my white 240z moved from down Penrith way to the Inner West and start working on getting it roadworthy (didn’t have the space in my garage before).
Gavin, did you go to high school in Vic or NSW?
Victoria, Glen Eira College in Caulfield. :). Back when it was nicknamed Heroin High!
Something I’m sure the School works hard to bury and forget all these years later. 🙂
So, it is turtles all the way down……timing fits the repo market rumpus
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Microsites/tmpg/files/TMPG_FICC_presentation_03_07_19.pdf
And JP Morgan is in it up to its neck…..looks like the Fed is going to bail out every grifter hiding under JP Morgan’s skirt
https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/sponsored-repo
Rating agencies starting to get some belated religion……..CLO’s getting nervous
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/11/04/leveraged-loan-downgrades-spike-collateralized-loan-obligations-clo-get-cold-feet-trigger-selloff-b-rated-loans/
Banks and corps acting bad – ???? – then why did the conservatives forward the legal philosophy that forwarded it in the first place ….
Along a similar vein why did “progressives” all embrace an ideology of “personal transformation” that predictably lead to them all becoming selfish bastards!?
https://youtu.be/ub2LB2MaGoM
36mins to 40mins has quite the punch line.
A warning to the prudish though that section of the clip above depicts Reusa style relations parties with a high degree of nudity.
Since neoliberalism became dominate everything is conservative economically, wanking on about progressive is a snipe hunt.
Does neoliberalism work without progressives backing mass population growth?
How long has neoliberal economics and political administration been dominate again, oh yeah 50 years with another 20 years lead in time. So unless you want to argue that immigration was the key factor during that whole time you might have to reconsider your views.
Does neoliberalism work without progressives backing mass population growth?
You seem to have misspelled “immigration”.
Progressives have little political influence, so obviously yes it works just fine.
Without calling out
A#fake progressivism how do you think the left can ever be put back on the truly progressive path of working-class economic and political empowerment.
The self-appointed left leadership don’t deserve to win politically if they are economic conservative.
This makes them not left or progressive at all.
migrant communities in particular understand this and vote accordingly
Remind me whom said everything was a market again – ????? – if so – then that is were groups will strive to make changes because it hits someone in the back pocket.
This makes them not left or progressive at all.
Swing and a miss…
6 hours ago
The latest lies from Shane Geha
So rising house prices is a bad thing?
😆😆
damn, no comments.
Not even an ounce of subtle obfuscation just a straight up Fken liar.
Give the bloke a brake, he’s in real-estate, what do you expect? The honesty of a Prime Minister?
Opal tower. Mascot tower. Thousands like them. Flammable cladding everywhere. That’s what you get without red tape.
He’s a lying dog.
shane geha is the definition of scum
The poo is on a charge .. apparently the traders believe the RBA spew
Damn and I have to convert Euro and USD to $AUD before settlement, anyone care to guess how long the $AUD can remain bullish for?
From a technical view, we are at major resistance of a very long running down channel. If it doesn’t break this resistance it will head back to the lows again.
Thanks I tend to agree.
Can you let me know whether or not you run into any “issues” transferring a large amount of cash from overseas, please ?
Sure, will do. Right now I have to tackle a 2 factor authentication security challenge 1 bank has introduced and that’s slowing me down for Euros.
My $USD is in Westpac which worries me. Thinking of inverting to $AUD via Currency Fair and then moving to Rabo Bank. Don’t trust the Big 4 right now.
Ah, so do you actually have the money still in a foreign institution, or is it local banks with foreign currency accounts ?
It’s the former I’m interested in.
I have both, specifically I have some Euro’s in Ireland with AIB.ie. Locally I have $USD with Westpac currency account. The AIB bank upgraded security which requires a security key generator to access and log in via the App, up until recently I was able to access the money fine via the App, but because I don’t have the latest bank card (since they sent it to my old address in Ireland) I have to go through hoops to sort that out before I can attempt to transfer the funds back here. Bit of a headache, but luckily my settlement is in Feb next year so I’ve got time.
Regardless I’ll try and update you once it’s done. I don’t anticipate problems because AIB is quite good I think and I don’t think over exposed this time around. (Compared with 08).
Ok, cool. I’m interested to see if bringing a large amount of cash triggers any flags – eg: with the ATO – that will require a “please explain [why we shouldn’t tax this as income and/or capital gain]”.
DrSmithy, I sold about $250k worth of $USD stocks in 1 hit, didn’t have to explain anything. I will eventually be asked to pay some capital gains however. But that will be done during tax return.
I read that as a big F U to the RBA. Stick with the 2-3% inflation target and cut teh rate.
What other garbage was thrown out today between the RBA’s monthly moment and the Melbourne Cup?
“Coalition’s $200m regional jobs and investment program fails to meet audit standards”
Ministers declined to fund 28% of grants recommended by officials, and approved 17% that had not been recommended to them
Spoiler alert: Michaelia Cash was involved.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/05/coalitions-200m-regional-jobs-and-investment-program-fails-to-meet-audit-standards
Oh, the harpy is involved? Well, that’s a good thing… is it?
Learn 2 Code… or maybe not:
https://www.netmeister.org/blog/cs-falsehoods.html
haha, thanks.
Gold!! I’m spreading that around.:-)
Presumably that list has meaning.