Macro Afternoon

Stocks rose across Asia as expected with the strong lead from Wall Street on Friday night translating into solid gains outside Japan, which was closed for a holiday.  The Aussie dollar has nearly matched its high of last week while gold held on to its previous gains and weekly high.

The Shanghai Composite is building on its Friday breakout, closing some 0.6% higher to 2959 points while the Hang Seng Index is going even further ahead, up over 1.4% as it launches out above the 27000 points level, having cleared the weekly downtrend line on Friday:

Japanese share markets were closed for yet another holiday with the lack of trading seeing the USDJPY pair stabilising just above the 108 handle following the decent post-NFP bounce on Friday night, but this remains a swing play only:

The ASX200 is finally putting on some gains, despite a trading halt in Westpac after a terrible result that dragged down the other divisions of Megabank, with commodity/material stocks filling in the gaps. The market close only 0.3% higher, not helped by a higher Aussie dollar which has almost matched last week’s extreme high at the 69.20 level:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly with the S&P500 four hourly chart clearly showing an overshoot on Friday night that could pull back tonight if the lack of solid news on more “talks” with the Chinese:

The economic calendar starts the week relatively slowly with a series of final manufacturing PMI prints in Europe, with a speech from Christine Lagarde to watch later in the session.

Comments

  1. Today, South Australia got a new gas power station.

    Barker Inlet gas-fired power plant began operations Monday, Australia’s first major new power station since 2012, with its quick-start capability designed to back-up fast-growing wind and solar generation.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-04/australia-flicks-switch-on-first-new-power-station-in-7-years

    The A$295 million ($204 million) facility in South Australia has 210 megawatts of capacity

    The plant is capable of reaching full capacity within 5 minutes

    Australia will likely need around A$400 billion in new utility-scale generation assets over the next 30 years as aging coal-fired power plants retire, the Grattan Institute, a think tank, said in a study last month.

    How much does gas cost in South Australia compared to Vic? Is this another insane decision?

  2. https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/worlds-best-economy-2019-no-not-the-coalitions-australia-,13272

    Australia’s is almost certainly the worst collapse of any economy through the last six years of global economic recovery.

    Australia’s IAREM rankings for the last 13 years are:

    2007: 9th (Coalition)
    2008: 3rd (Labor)
    2009: 1st (Labor)
    2010: 4th (Labor)
    2011: 1st (Labor)
    2012: 1st (Labor)
    2013: 1st (Labor)
    2014: 3rd (Coalition)
    2015: 9th (Coalition)
    2016: 13th (Coalition)
    2017: 18th (Coalition)
    2018: 21st (Coalition)
    2019: 28th (Coalition)

    • LOL
      “I think the environmental groups should look at our record,” she said.

      You mean the record of two D9 bulldozers dragging a chain between them knocking down everything in their path?

    • Just to clarify, we are importing millions of economic migrants because that makes jobs, but we don’t have enough jobs so we are going to trash our few remaining forests to get jobs, and now we need even more jobs because we have more people, so we need to trash more forests?

          • This is the new fault-line of debate really. The left have come out swinging declaring all environmentalists who question their open border globalist ideology as eco-fascists apologists. But it would seem the conservatives are gaining traction on environmental issues because the progressives are increasingly compromised in this space. The positive is that anti-environmentalism is becoming less of a right reflex to progressive ideology, with the actual focus on the nuttiness of the core ideology.

            Even Klein who is softening her stance and lining up with Sanders et al still can’t let go of the open border globalism and throws some loose punches in the end. https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/latenightlive/naomi-klein-on-the-green-new-deal/11650582

          • The left have come out swinging declaring all environmentalists who question their open border globalist ideology as eco-fascists apologists. But it would seem the conservatives are gaining traction on environmental issues because the progressives are increasingly compromised in this space.

            These are the same conservative “environmentalists” who say climate change is a hoax perpetrated for generations by an international cabal of cultural marxist scientists ? The ones who have been trying to get rid of restrictions on land clearing ? The ones who think renewal energy is a pointless waste of time ?

            Clearly, it’s the environment they’re worried about.

          • That’s a simplification of the broader positions obviously, but in fact yes, it does appear so. Climate change is complex, but environmental degradation, biodiversity collapse and ecological degradation is not. The numbers are simple to understand and compelling and conservative politics is subtly shifting ground to accomodate the facts.

          • The numbers are simple to understand and compelling and conservative politics is subtly shifting ground to accomodate the facts.

            The fact is conservatives are using “environmental issues” as a figleaf, which is obvious from a) their sudden discovery of issues which actual environmentalists have been pursuing for decades and b) a focus on things like, say, land clearing or mining which have nearly zero to do with population growth, while ignoring (or pillorying) things that do, like renewable energy and reducing waste.

          • It’s best not to confuse environmentalism with progressive globalist ideology. Progressives have been using environmental issues as their own fig leaf for a long time much to the frustration of real environmentalists. Conservatives don’t approach environmental issues in the same way, but there is a much greater chance of a middle ground consensus forming. Unfortunately the progressive are now labelling anyone who doesn’t support the open border globalist ideology as an eco-facist apologist.

          • It’s best not to confuse environmentalism with progressive globalist ideology.

            Best not to confuse it with bigotry either. This is why something like climate change presents a good test.

            Conservatives don’t approach environmental issues in the same way, but there is a much greater chance of a middle ground consensus forming.

            LOL. Conservatives don’t do “middle ground”, or nuance, or compromise. It’s not in their nature.

    • They want to jam 50,000,000 people into the joint quick time. We are currently locked in a intense and macabre game of musical chairs where the losers can choose to eek out their days in mouldy crumbling dog-boxes or low socio-economic provincial hell, or pay the rent seekers for the privilege not to. Debt is the last thing on anyone’s mind.

      • Watching this country descend into what it is becoming is a bit like watching a good friend become a drug addict. Everyone knows it will end in tears. Even the dealer knows he will end up in jail. But all we can do for now is watch the trainwreck unfold.

        • Good Analogy Timmeh, but I’d say it’s a bit like watching Britney Spears from the age of 18 – Perhaps the most desirable “virgin” cough.. go on a ride to crazy town, get screwed over by everyone and become mentally ill. Willing to sell herself for cheap tricks as a judge on a panel for some talent show. Or night after night in Vegas perform hit me baby one more time. Kind of sad. And has less than 50% custody of it’s kids (in Australia’s case lost all it’s good assets to foreigners).

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