How far the great stock blowoff?

Readers will know that we are not a believer in the global recovery narrative driving the great stock blowoff. It is impressive nonetheless as down days all but disappear:

Daily price swings too:

Not to menton the death of vol:

As America First leaves the world well and truly behind:

Thanks to buybacks:

And cyclicals:

Most particularly tech:

Even though there is no cycle:

Though history offers some hope:

I can see it runnig a little further yet. 3300 on the S&P seems a nice round number.

But believe in it? Yeh…nah:

  • trade non-deal is insubstantial with no chance of round two;
  • Hong Kong is headed to Hell;
  • China is still slowing and Europe is bogged with Brexit looming;
  • oil is still in a glut.

I expect a modest rebound in global growth only, nothing like enough to backfill the booming valuations now inflating.

Enjoy it while it lasts.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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