Readers will know that we are not a believer in the global recovery narrative driving the great stock blowoff. It is impressive nonetheless as down days all but disappear:
Daily price swings too:
Not to menton the death of vol:
As America First leaves the world well and truly behind:
Thanks to buybacks:
Most particularly tech:
Even though there is no cycle:
Though history offers some hope:
I can see it runnig a little further yet. 3300 on the S&P seems a nice round number.
But believe in it? Yeh…nah:
- trade non-deal is insubstantial with no chance of round two;
- Hong Kong is headed to Hell;
- China is still slowing and Europe is bogged with Brexit looming;
- oil is still in a glut.
I expect a modest rebound in global growth only, nothing like enough to backfill the booming valuations now inflating.
Enjoy it while it lasts.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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