APRA specufestor lending bogged by deleveraging

APRA is out with October bank data and if the major banks are lending to specufestors then they are returning the dough even faster:

ANZ CBA MQG NAB WBC BOQ BEN SUN
Oct-19 86401 155833 18164 111974 182267 11960 13735 12336
Sep-19 86652 155691 17269 112687 184042 11985 13683 12354
Aug-19 87140 155562 17300 113519 184886 12053 13640 12364
Jul-19 87729 155406 16698 114311 185615 12054 13587 12355
Jun-19 76774 133761 12643 104660 153525 11340 12811 11756
May-19 77473 133400 12532 104681 153096 11320 12932 11694
Apr-19 78018 133093 12465 105036 152588 11332 12851 11697
Mar-19 78470 132904 12372 105379 152393 11333 12772 11724
Feb-19 78936 132916 12320 105645 152368 11352 12649 11755
Jan-19 79366 132960 12223 105757 152323 11364 12597 11745
Dec-18 79790 133045 12103 105869 152453 11366 12554 11784
Nov-18 80187 132812 11938 106081 152318 11534 12538 11738
Oct-18 80470 132705 11791 105982 152432 11318 12467 11700

The only reason there’s year on year growth is the APRA adjustments to definitions that brought a bunch of new loans into the category in July:

Othewise, since then month on month keeps sinking:

The notable exception is Mad Macquarie which has grown its specufestor book by 50% in six years despite a macroprudential intermission:

This data is loan stock so it doesn’t tell us about house price movements much in the short term. What it does say is that bank back books for investors are still shrinking and that means the delveraging pulse is alive and well as loans are repayed faster than they can be approved.

Bad for bank profits.

David Llewellyn-Smith

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

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