UBS quantifies Brexit

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Via UBS:

Brexit crossroads: Possible paths ahead and their impacts on assets

Things have been very fluid in the last 24 hours, but we believe markets still ascribe a low probability to a Brexit deal by end-October. Beyond that may loom new negotiations and elections, potentially a final turn in the Brexit saga. The consequences will be important for the UK, but also for the rest of Europe. In this Q-series report, UBS economists, strategists and equity analysts sift through a multitude of moving parts to crystallise key asset signals. We take a fresh look at the cost the economy and markets have already paid since the 2016 referendum, the degree to which Brexit Risk is priced across different markets and how risk-reward now sits along the paths ahead. We\ highlight most/least favoured UK stocks, as well as Brexit-impacted companies globally.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.