Risk regime shift or polly drivel?

From Damien Boey at Credit Suisse:

Over the weekend, UK Prime Minister Johnson’s attempt to get parliamentary approval for his Brexit deal fell flat – not because of inadequate support for his bill, but because of an earlier amendment put forward by Sir Letwin, designed to avoid any meaningful vote on the bill until details of implementation had been finalized. Essentially, Sir Letwin sought insurance against an unforeseen event that would frustrate the implementation of the bill, and risk the UK exiting the European Union without a deal. The “Letwin amendment” passed with a slim majority of 322 votes to 306.

For what it is worth, Letwin has subsequently come out in support of Johnson’s Brexit deal. Also, many commentators have come to the view that Johnson may well have the numbers to ratify the deal, but for procedural technicalities that could preclude a vote on it early this week.

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