Good stuff here from Martin North:
This very much reminds me of the 2003 Sydney bust. The west continues to fall as the east rebounds. This will lead to stagnation in time as the “move up ladder” stalls with western households trapped in negative equity.
The difference this time is that in 2003 Sydney was rescued by the huge income gains that flowed from the mining boom. This boosted households via wage and rental gains. This time both are falling as well.
This has L-shaped recovery written all over it, and bull trap when we add any external shock.
