Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A sea of green on stock markets across Asia although not as substantial as that on overnight markets, with Japanese bourses closed for a holiday providing a muddy picture to overall sentiment.  Commodities were relatively weak while currencies tread water as USD gained slightly.

The Shanghai Composite was floating along and looked set to put in a scratch session but surged at the close to finish 0.5% higher, but still below 3000 points while the Hang Seng Index advanced in a similar way, up 0.3% to 26800 points as it continues to fight resistance overhead at the 27000 point level and not looking energetic at all on the daily chart:

Japanese share markets were closed for a holiday as Yen strengthened throughout the session, the USDJPY pair unable to claw itself out of its sideway bent and remaining depressed here at the mid 108’s, ready to threaten trailing ATR support soon:

The ASX200 put in a solid session, lifting nearly 0.3% to 6672 points and continuing its stabilising pattern after the sell off late last week. The stall in the climb in the Aussie dollar helped again as buying exhaustion set in, the Pacific Peso stalling once more without a new session high at the 68.70 level before the City open:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are relateivley flat or up 0.1% or so with more Brexit drama spilling into the risk taking arena. The S&P500 four hourly chart is still showing a reluctance to break over the psychologically important 3000 point barrier, as price marches sideways but still supported without much selling pressure:

The economic calendar is again quiet tonight with some third tier UK and Euro releases only, with all focus on the new “deal” with Brussels and Brexit brouhaha.

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  1. SAR had a solid quarter and allowed me to offload 10k shares at decent profit. Still holding more shares as I think this company is worth lot more but short term there is a risk for share price to go down.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    Is there a special category visa or skilled migration reserved occupation for “Wallabies Coach”?

    Asking for a friend.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I will say one (only) thing for Boris. He did really try. Unlike almost every other Tory. To Leave.

    • Trick – ?????

      I thought Cameron was the first one to pull anything, that it blew up in their faces is the punch line ….

  3. I put in an offer on a property today (Mudbrick Home) and vendor has accepted given our offer was at the high end of their guide range and unconditional terms, plus settlement on the date the vendor wants. My mortgage will be $150k odd.. Another bear has capitulated, so the end is nigh.. but I was more worried about my money being stolen via bail in, QE or some other quackery CB’s will cook up to keep this sausage factory going..

    It’s not enough land for what I want really, so I’ll have to get creative with my workshop space (maybe a car stacker), currently has a double car port + workshop and boat driveway (for a boat obviously) but it backs onto a nature reserve and is low maintenance land (no grass to mow) but has a swimming pool, which I’d rather maintain over a lawn in a Sydney summer for sure.

    Can’t wait to tell my Landlord in Sydney to get stuffed…but I hate the fact I’ve given in and bought..I am viewing this as our starter castle, with a view to moving further out to maybe St Andrews area in Victoria later on.

    • Oh dear. Quite a few here have caved recently. Can’t be far off now! Hope you enjoy the new digs.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Let me be the second to congratulate you on initiating the Australian housing apocalypse.

      H&H will be stoked.

    • Console yourself with this: 150K mortgage is completely doable on your household income and you’ll be able to clear it soon. Everyone has to compromise at somestage and you’ll have the majority of your assets outside the financial system once settlement occurs so you’re now much now protected from financial collapse. I don’t think we’re close to bail in just yet in Australia but if I had your savings that would certainly have been keeping me awake. Good luck with the new stage in life and focus on the positives while de risking the negatives as much as possible!

    • Congratulations.
      I moved 11 times in 12 years at one stage( lot of it work related), and the relief of knowing you can stay in one spot for a while is fabulous.
      And yes, land lords were a lot nicer back in the day, but still nice to get away from them.

    • Congrats Gav. Patience paid off and sounds like you got something more than decent without compromising on the giant mortgage stakes. For my part capitulation is only the “right house” away, meanwhile prices are screaming upwards in my area (at least for now) and who knows what will happen. I feel More than slightly dirty talking to mortgage providers but hey.

      (PS swimming pools are not forever: in due course you can change it if you want (punch a few holes in the bottom, fill with topsoil – presto: the suburb’s biggest vegetable bed).

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      When your landlord offers you a discount on the rent to stay, consider it. And air-b’n’b.

      • If I wasn’t going to buy a house it was either Gold or other hard assets. I was actually seriously looking at an R34 GTR Skyline. Since they seem to be holding values and going up! I figure, better than gold in many respects as you can use and enjoy it and storage is less of an issue if you have a garage. I was also contemplating a small allocation of BTC.

    • congrats Gav. If I have a deposit that will allow me to buy with $150k mortgage I’ll do it too.

      am I the only ugly renter now? 😥

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      It’s about time! Well done! Now have a boy and a girl, don’t let it go for too long like I did and only got the one

    • Congratulations Gav. Seriously. As John Lydon said…
      I may be wrong, I may be right (repeat)
      May the road rise with you

      As soon as you feel OK to do so, please share some photos.
      You’re young, employed well and married. It will all work out in the end (if it doesn’t work out, it’s not the end yet)
      Cheers, Arty

    • Thanks everyone, I still believe the market will crash and I want it to, once it’s all paid off, I could give 0 fecks about if it goes up / down / sideways etc.. I hate the fact I’ll pay $50k in stamp duty though..

      For those interested in photos.
      I’m sure the savvy amongst you can figure out the listing. But please keep the address to yourself if that’s you. 🙂 – Reusa yes we can have a pool party and fabulous relations, just don’t leave dinga’s in the pool when done. 😛

      It actually doesn’t photograph that well, looks a bit dark and drab (as some mudbricks tend to) and the kitchen looks horrid and dated in photos, but it’s actually nice in person and fits in. I think I’ll do the walls in an off white colour to liven it up a bit and make a few other subtle changes. But the quality of the doors, fixtures and wood used throughout is really sturdy stuff. I am not worried about combustible cladding lol..

      It’s very similar to the property I missed out on here:
      In that it backs onto a nature reserve, but that property was $1.11M… about $200k more expensive than what we’ve bought.

      • Very cool house. Nice work.

        My problem is tolerating real estate agents more than anything else, otherwise I’d have probably capitulated long ago.. I have a lot of difficulty restraining myself from punching him/her in the mouth as soon as they attempt to open it. Every agent.

        • Remarkably this Real Estate agent was actually a nice guy. In fact I was sick today so the missus was talking to him and dealing with him. Unlike another agent I dealt with for a Warehouse conversion in Parkdale Melbourne. I wanted to fire bomb the joint after. lol…good agents do exist, they are out there. But it may be because of the areas I’m looking in.. I suspect if I was in the Inner West of Sydney looking I’d have bought a 12 barrel shot gun by now.

      • Well done… I see a pool there. Word of advice, do not accept Reusa throwing a ‘welcome party’ not, in the pool, not anywhere else. 🤣

      • Congrats again Gav. Forgive me for this next…
        It’s a nice house. One or two things you plan to do with it. All good…
        Give it 5 years and the house will be your hobby; cars will have cobwebs.
        Sorry to predict this. There’s nothing wrong with it. No criticism intended and I don’t feel smart for making the prediction. It just happens.
        Just keep the cobweb cars. In another 25 years you will be finished with the house and the cars will be worth a mint!

        • My fear is that kids will re-focus my priorities and I can see that somewhat happening. But I also think having a dad with a passion and hobby and sharing that with their kids is a really good thing. I’ve got a few car mates who that and I think it’s great. I wish my dad had taught me more about working on cars. 1 of the reasons I bought the Stagea (family wagon) was that I could have a fun car (and still be a car guy) but I could have my family in the car.

          I know a few car guys who have them for the same reason, in fact the guy I bought it off had a little girl in the back seat in a kiddie seat when we went on the test drive and she was so cute I reckon she half sold the car for him. I just thought how cool is that, dad is having fun in his wagon and his little girl comes along for the ride and she loves the car too.

          You may of course be right, I’m happy to admit it if it happens, but.. I just cannot see my self letting them go. I enjoy tinkering with them too much and the only other hobby that could replace it would be music and guitars I think.

        • haha, the missus is Greek Orthodox so we thought the owner was too, but I think they are Catholic. It is a bit odd, to me. Maybe a Flying Spaghetti Monster would be better? 🙂

      • Looks great. I think the worst thing about you buying is we wont get to see the quirky houses you keep finding. I like your style of house you find.

        Edit, that pool and those gumtrees will become the bane of your existence. 😛 Actually it should only be in the next month or so as you move in that those gums will start shedding leaves and bark. I havd two ghost gums in my rental and holy hell, i never knew how much crap they drop. Had several dead branches smash through the tiles. Leaves, oh my god the fvckn leaves. And after the leaves stop falling, the bark comes off in 6 foot strips…. Hopefully those gums arent as bad as ghost gums.

      • Ooo looks pretty swish, love the fact it backs into a nature reserve and a fairly verdant one at that!

    • Onya Gav, nothing wrong with what you’ve done. You can still cheerlead the crash when it comes, despite owning. With little or no debt you will never go wrong, unlike those multiple owning, infestors who’ve fvcked it for everyone. They’ll be toast!

    • Congrats Gavin.
      Nice place. Hope you dont mind me asking, have you forked out your entire networth/saving towards the house (X-150) = Y — Y appears to quite large, or have you stashed away another equivalent of “Y” as savings other than this?

      • I plan to use an offset account so I’ll have most of the money in that to offset the mortgage, but I also have my vintage cars + heaps of spare parts worth a small fortune on their own. And I still own a small portion of $USD based equities. So I may or may not sell them to pay down the mortgage or keep them as a hedge against $AUD devaluation – which would help me pay down the mortgage even further.

        Only other wealth I have is Super really, I’m still young (37) so plenty of time to build up my net worth via investing in stocks/equities or my own business ideas. My goal since I started working was to buy a home and have it paid off as soon as possible. Be debt free. I’ve never wanted to become a multi-property owning landlord.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          It is just a little OTP IP. You can see from ze plans Sir that she is just wafer-thin.

    • Congrats Gav, it looks very nice – Tranquil spot too. Fat house hoses & a fire pump sucking from the pool might be cheap insurance & some peace of mind…… Oh & the number of blokes that just don’t have the time for their hobbies once they have kids is huge…. I hope you find a way to enjoy both.

    • Hi Gavin, different subject…

      Need your advice about cars. My 2000 SAAB 95 Aero Turbo Estate is up for major mechanical repair work soon. Call it $8000. Normally I would just do it, but the old girl is getting flaky duco disease on the bonnet and roof with other parts following soon I expect. Once a car starts to get bad paint, it’s hard to feel good about it anymore, even though she’s nice to drive. A re-spray is $10 grand. Add that to the mechanical work mentioned above and you have $18k for a car that’s worth maybe $5k on a good day if I want to sell it. Maybe that’s OK. Day to day driver cars are like a tax, they cost money to run.

      So, I’ve been thinking instead of a low-mileage Stagea (or alternatively a Maxima 370 Wagon). Must be a wagon. Sedans are boring and impractical. Can you tell me about any really well known issues that I should look out for with either of these cars? Can normal Nissan service places deal with Stageas? Do you know any Melbourne Nissan specialists you would recommend for these cars? Would you say they are practical for a daily driver?

      Comments on this one?

      Should I hold out for a straight-6 turbo (may be hard to find with less than 100,000km)? Definitely a daily driver required, not something to be pampered too much.

      • What’s the Saab insured for? Sounds like the best exit strategy to me.

        I wouldn’t faff about with old nissans. Despite what Gav thinks.

      • Hey Arthur sorry I missed replying earlier. I personally wouldn’t invest more money in the SAAB unless you think you’ll get another 5-10 years out of it. Might be able to fix your clear coat issues in the cheap if it doesn’t have to be perfect?

        The M35 Stageas are good cars, that model you linked to has the same engine as a 350z and Nissan Maxima. A friend has a Maxima with 350,000 KMs on it and still going strong, but clear coat is going on it. It’s been really reliable too.

        I would take the Stagea for a test drive. I’ve heard they are fantastic and the non turbo ones should be easier to maintain. I tend to go to specialists when required. But do basic service stuff myself. Racepace in Melbourne are meant to be good, but I haven’t used them myself..

        I saw this Stagea for sale, tried to get my mate with the Maxima to go look. Since he’s a cameraman and could use the boot space.

        Nissan’s are pretty good and easy to maintain normally. The earlier straight 6 versions C34 Stagea like I’ve got are heavy on fuel and appeal to boy racers like myself so have often been given a hard time. Making a good 1 hard to find. They also tend to have rust problems because the AWD ones were used in snow regions in Japan.

        I bought the Rb26 version since the 2 turbos helped low end torque. The Rb25 version was a little weak down low and didn’t do it for me, but if you’re gonna modify with modern turbos it can be overcome. I personally like the later N/A 3.5ltr idea though for low end grunt and simplicity.

        There is a manual version in QLD on CarSales. Very rare to find in manual if that’s your thing and it looks super clean too. I’d test drive to see what you think or if you want to keep the SAAB.