Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A better than expected day on stock markets across Asia despite the poor lead from Wall Street on Friday night as the weakening in USD and co-ordinated volatility in currency markets abated on the Monday morning gap open. A lack of data throughout the session and later tonight is seeing some stability come back to risk taking, with gold steady alongside the Aussie dollar and other risk currencies.

The Shanghai Composite is still unable to make good on any catalysts, dropping another 0.2% going into the close at 2930 points while the Hang Seng Index is treading water as it fights resistance overhead at the 27000 point level, closing a few points higher to 26725 points and not looking energetic at all on the daily chart:

Japanese share markets were the best performers in the region as the Yen weakened slightly during the session, the Nikkei 225 closing 0.25% higher to 22552 points while the TOPIX advanced nearly double. The USDJPY pair is clawing its way back after a near stall is seeing a minor recovery above the mid 108’s take place but the high moving average on the four hourly chart and flat momentum point to a sideways bent for now:

The ASX200 put in a flat session, finally stabilising after the sell off late last week, up a handful of points to close at 6652 points. The slowdown in the climb in the Aussie dollar helped a little bit, as buying exhaustion sets in following the weekend gap, as the Pacific Peso stalls at the 68.60 level before the City open:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are up around 0.2% or so with the S&P500 four hourly chart still showing a reluctance to break over the psychologically important 3000 point barrier, as price marches sideways but still supported without much selling pressure:

The economic calendar starts the week slowly with not many important releases tonight, with the US budget and second tier ECB data the only things to note.

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  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    Welcome back (again) CB. Just wanted to be clear that I was the FIRST to say that originally. Hope the break was awesome.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Sold them all. Can’t.

        Wouldn’t want to look like one of the loosers still HODLing on those. 😜

        • Good time to buy more, Wilbs.

          (Is that advice? Yeah. No disclaimers. Anyone who takes my advice is dopey far beyond the point where disclaimers will do them any good.)

  2. A little speculative trade today – Treasury Wines dropped 11% or so with the sudden departure of its CEO, the vacancy to be filled by the current COO. I think the enterprise will continue to be run as well as previously – not necessarily better or worse – but it’s worth a punt, in the circumstances. Even a recovery of half today’s loss would be sweet.
    My only concern is that all those discerning and tasteful Chinee students will suddenly stop drinking Grange. Nah!!

    • I read “He also made it clear he wanted to move TWE from being an agribusiness to being a brand-led consumer products company” and thought yeah nah they’re fukt.

    • as long as old CEO did not get a job for small Chinese wine company that, with Chinese Gov help, will starve TW by hitting them with fines/tariffs and then make takeover bid when share price falls 75%.

    • so old but who tells the story is what makes it worth listening. something tells me Gina will unfriend him on Facebook.

    • Good TED talk.

      He believes in raising the minimum wage. But there was no mention of UBI in this TED talk.

      Is he willing to do a trial on UBI to see if it works?

    • so EVN shares expected to fall tomorrow.. might be an opening to buy as EVN is run by few smart people.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur



    Coincidentally that’s the working title for a biography I’m writing on a statment of monetary policy boy’s life and times.

    Chapter 1
    How to slip an extra copy of the pre-meeting minutes into the print queue


    How newscorp paid off my student loan

    The smell of copier-toner hung heavy in the 23.7°C coolness that slipped quietly from behind the doors of the RBA inner sanctum. The coolroom was closed now but in matter of hours its gated-portals would be opened by one of the many fectinidious underlings tasked with securing the building for the greater good and a new wave of vitality would sweep along the stone-hewn corridors awaiting a vessel into which the actions of a nation could be channelled, carrying the ambitions of an underestimated and little understood country along with it.

    Phil turned to face those gates and their polished brass knobs for the third time that morning, unaware he was being watched by the lowest of those on his totem-pole – the statement of monetary policy boy.
    “Ah, ah ah, ahwooooooo” exclaimed Phil at the wooden panels. Hoping vainly for some echo, some small manifestation of life in the animal spirits to come back to him down the vast corridor through which so much time and shoe leather had travelled.

    Phil was disappointed. The spirits had not replied and there was no sign of guidance forthcoming from Captain Glenn.
    The statement of monetary policy boy hovered in a limbo of indecision. Not wanting to distrub the great man’s thoughts, but not wanting to be seen lurking as a craven observer either should his motives be misread. Slowly he retreated behind the gentle glow of the photopier as through its guts churned the fate of the economy and the hopes of a once grateful nation.


      • The Traveling Wilbur


        Sorry, but I only write for dust-jacket covers. And readers-digest reader’s submissions.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            When they start writing as many gags as I do, let me know. 😜

            Right now, they just keep reusing the same one. 😕

    • There’s not enough there to say I can hear the voice of the protagonist. And I like it. He is the silent majority. Powerless in the face of influence that he will never make sense of and yet desires to hold. Though he knows that if he held it it would be wielded in a just manner. And to hold it would mean that he is not just. For the monsters he would slay to wear Phil’s cuff-links would necessitate turning himself into one. I’m very curious.

      Finish the chapter, outline the rest of the book and get back to me. The release schedule is filling up, but there is always space for another piece of literary merit. Reusa’s yearly coffee table books about what one can do on coffee tables will be out just before Christmas. It really is shocking what isn’t shocking these days. We expect that Stagmal’s 5th collection of concrete poems, with introduction and commentary by Emrmington Plumbing shall again break all records. He’s the Beyonce of blank space. Thankfully every Beyonce comes with a Solange and Haroldus’ collection of bon mots on Bon Scott is even better than one could hope. It’s an intellectual and literary bonanza not seen since the Scottish Enlightenment. What a time to be alive.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Dear Sir (or Madam (as the fancy takes you?)),

        kindly remove yourself from my head at your earliest convenience.


        Dee Ply Disturbed.

        As it happens, you couldn’t be more wrong. It’s not “necessitate”, it’s “might require”. Hah.
        But yeah, other than that, it was everything you said. I even had the last para of the story down too… I bet you can guess how it ends based on the story so far…

        Hint: massive rip off of Stephen King and ‘cycles’ involved. Brilliant finish.

        Only 398 pages to go.

        PS SOMPBoy is going to meet someone called ‘Bernie’. Open to suggestions on gender and orientation. Of the character. They have a torrid affair and SOMPBoy spends all of Bernie’s super on drugs and hookers. And Banksies.

        • Don’t state Bernie’s gender. Have SOMPBoy be George Dyer to Bernie’s Francis Bacon. Hilarity shall ensue.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Sigh. Jinx. Again.

        Yes, gender undeclared is what I had in mind with that choice of name too. However, the metaphorical literary nod is to Bernie Fraiser (not Wilde). Hence all the Super gets spent.