Macro Afternoon

A somewhat mixed day on stock markets across Asia as the poor lead from Wall Street and the drop in USD overnight seeing sentiment shift from the positive mood at the start of the week. Today’s better than expected unemployment print saw the Aussie dollar jump while gold also rose among the undollar assets.

The Shanghai Composite spiked again on the open but still can’t hold onto any gains, closing some 0.2% lower to 2973 points while the Hang Seng Index continued its post breakout rally, lifting 0.4% to be at 26770 points, almost cracking resistance at 27000:

Japanese share markets were mixed given the sideways move on Yen overnight plus the poor lead from Wall Street with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.1% lower at 22451 points. The USDJPY pair remains stalled just below the 109 handle, taking some heat out of the very sharp advance this last week and a half:

The ASX200 sold off the most, losing nearly 0.8% in the wake of the unemployment print as expectations for more rate cuts from the RBA took the rug from underneath, finishing at 6684 points. The Australian dollar spiked on the release, making good on yesterday’s breakout but has pulled back slightly on the European open, currently still below the 68 handle:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are down slightly with the S&P500 four hourly chart still showing a reluctance to break over the psychologically important 3000 point barrier, as traders continue to weigh up overseas macro risks:

The economic calendar has a broad European focus with the start of the summit today in Brussels, but there’s also a raft of secondary releases from the US, including initial jobless claims numbers to keep an eye on.

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Comments

  1. https://www.realestate.com.au/property-acreage+semi-rural-vic-eltham-132231118
    $1.49m – $1.59m

    Was previously asking: $1,620,000 – $ 1,780,000 (Morrison Kleeman) now with Barry (head) Plant.

    So have dropped their price, but RE tries to aid and abet hiding of price drops by making it impossible to view Google Cached pages.. However you can somewhat get around this by looking at the “text only” version, since it’s some clever JavaScript that hides the page and old listing when you arrive via Google Cache..
    example:
    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:1J2dd7tdWPkJ:https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-eltham-130573406&hl=en&gl=au&strip=1&vwsrc=0

    December 2017 they paid:
    $1,520,000

    So not a loss yet…but at least they have dropped asking price after being on the market for months and not moving.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      It is seriously disturbing.

      When the General is talking vis the China WTO accession he makes the perfect link

      The manufacturing moved, the better paying jobs with healthcare left, the fentanyl came in

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        the very end of the interview, where he matter of factly talks about russian interference in the 2016 election and just keeps going

        should come with a trigger warning for some of the MB community

    • Yeah real eye opener and I don’t think the General was BSing either.. It got me thinking about Australia and how we’ve sold our soul out to make a buck off the Chinese, but at what cost? Unaffordable housing, declining University Standards and living standards. We have destroyed the integrity of a nation for a quick dollar. Very sad.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Successive governments were hoping to have a serendipitous solution to the problems inherent in an economy based on shifting ownership of house and holes overseas foisted upon them by an invisible hand. Instead of a serendipitous solution, they got an ore-well-ian one. Well, not one that will end well once no one wants ore no more, that is.

    • Gen. Precious Bodily Fluids Robert Spalding …. seriously …. American elites “asleep” – at the wheel introduction catapult to launch everything including the fear bathtub …. wheeeeee …

      I see Dutch farm land becoming hot RE …

      • I have no idea what skippy is trying to say but I think I agree

        Seriously, now we are taking spoon fed information from a US general?

        Any chance it might be partisan?

        They don’t even have to try with propaganda anymore

        • Precious Bodily Fluids is a Dr Strange Love reference.

          The rest is indicative of General lets nationalize 5G or the commies win suggestion that American elites were somehow impaired since Nixon went to China is goats truth. Seriously, trillions up against the wall for patriot act, homeland security, more wars and NSA and everyone was asleep ….

          Going to need a panamax barge to ship that effluent …

  2. Looks like the cladding issues are involving townhouses.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/we-re-getting-more-stressed-pensioners-wait-for-government-to-fix-cladding-nightmare-20191016-p531a3.html

    Ruth Arvidson was jittery when she and her husband Graham left their large Seaford home of 37 years to move into a beachside townhouse. “I hope we are doing the right thing,” she told her husband. It turned out her nerves were justified. In June this year the pensioners learnt their Johnson Avenue townhouse in Carrum was covered in combustible cladding.

    “It’s been a nightmare,” Mr Arvidson said. “This has greatly devalued our property.”

    Sounds like the cladding issue goes beyond high rise towers. This retiree couple is in their late 60s/early 70s – , you’d think that as downsizers they would have had enough to purchase outright and cover any repair costs but they could very well end up in a world of pain.

    • Typical of Australians these days. Not worried about being incinerated in their own home, only worried that it has made the value go down. Sigh.

    • I’m pretty sure if under 3 stories then the flammable cladding is fine anyway. So what is this article trying to elicit as a reaction seeing as their cladding shouldn’t have to be replaced?

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    After some thought I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s the modesty that’s admired most.

    And my love of VWs.

    Modesty, my love of VWs and Audis.

    Modesty, my love of VWs and the satisfaction of knowing that 80,000 of them (including a few thousand of its sibling branded pieces of euro-trash) have been recalled this week in Australia alone with transmission issues. And Audis.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      bought a mk6 Golf GTI 8 years ago. Went for a test drive in appropriately pretentious VW dealership. Asked if we could drive a manual.

      “but, everyone is getting DSG gearboxes. no one drives a manual”

      that may be true, but we’d like to test drive a manual, as that’s what we’re interested in.

      “only a fool would buy a manual now”

      well, the rest of your customers are idiots if they listen to you, but we’d like to test drive a manual

      (suitable huffing and stomping and puffing)

      we ended up buying a manual. fraudelent CO2 measurements aside, the manual GTI is a great car. Service gets expensive once you get close to 100k km. Have laughed on the inside every time I go into our (non dealer) repair guy and ask how many DSG gearboxes he’s repaired in the previous 6 months

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Yep. The moral of the story being: a fool and his automatic transmission fluids are easily parted.

        btw I like Golf(s). As you say, shame they’re not made by non-cheating emmitters. And Bettles.

  4. Fake Lefties are going nuts over this:

    An article about migration, written by Rupert Read (extinction rebellion UK) and published on The Ecologist in 2014, is currently doing the rounds. I’ve written a response here: https://t.co/Ol7m6UUC4i

  5. The Traveling Wilbur

    The ASX200 sold off the most, losing nearly 0.8% in the wake of the unemployment print as expectations for more rate cuts from the RBA took the rug from underneath, finishing at 6684 points.

    Huh? RBA cut, market go UP, yes?
    Or is the full version: unemployment number drops a bit, RBA cut looks LESS likely, market go DOWN?

    Asking for a friend.

    • Hah, that was a good rant. I think it’s the first time i’ve watched an entire episode of his. Very good.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        his Fatty McFcukhead rant, which goes for 40 minutes unedited, when he gets the inital letter from Fat Clive’s lawyer, it epic and definitely worth watching

  6. The Traveling Wilbur

    Speaking of markets, the Tory supporting element of the Irish MPs in the UK Parliament have, according to the ABC, announced they will NOT support any deal Boris manages to cobble together today (if any) when it comes to a vote in the UK parliament.
    That should certainly shift something. Tonight. Markets.

    So he’s fcknd. (it’s the backstop thing again).

    Either way, those MPs were never going to support a bill on the first vote anyway.
    They’d need two. Just to be sure to be sure.

  7. And the poo takes off … apparently everyone thinks Australia is just the bees knees… what a country! Those Aussies know how to run an economy …………

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        More: DXY weakness, China-US MINI-trade ‘deal’, and it would appear someone somewhere thinks the RBA might not be cutting any time soon (given the overall action today). Fckn knows why they’d think that off one single good employment print.

        And, yes, Brexit. Too.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            What I’m seeing is that in the last 24 hours, it’s stepped up, pretty smoothly, 100 pips. And ramped as soon as our bourse closed this arvo (which is pretty typical). So def. not just one piece of news.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Jebus. Indeed. You only need to look at a poo and straight up it goes mate.

      You’d be great at house parties.

      And the AUS 2yr yield is at .792. Ouch.
      Who’d own bonds eh?

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Nope. Just sitting on the sidelines kicking tyres and empathising with anyone still holding diversified bonds. Very not pretty ATM.

          It will, most likely, be back where it was last week, in a month. Or not. Might take longer as Christmas is coming. Not advice, just insights from performance over the last 12 months.

          What has really scared me is how yields keep going up recently even when TWO central banks have said in the last few days their outlook for possible easing has NOT changed (Lowes and for the US, just one rep, but as it was Powell, that’s impt.). And up yields continue to go… huh? meh? eek!

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          USD looking tasty. But I’d have to SMRF for that, and that one act of me starting a SMRF would probably invert all of the FX trade in the southern hemisphere causing a massive melt-up in AUD. So you’re all better of I stay well out of those trades. (SMRF=SMSF).

          • Why would you need a SMSF? Do you not have a bucket of cash from your bond exit? You could just buy ASX YANK…?

  8. The Traveling Wilbur

    And here’s one I just sent earlier…

    0 out of 10 – more chance of referring a friend to organised religion than you lot. What could Anonymous Parasitic Health Fund do better?

    Provide even a semi-decent range of services for your basic hospital-cover packages.
    Reward your customers who don’t abuse their extras cover year after year by claiming their maximums every year on each included extras limit just because they wouldn’t want to give it away.
    Stop devaluing the value of extras cover by splitting and/or lowering services/limits year after year after year.
    Reward customers with a no-claims bonus when, staggeringly, they don’t make a claim of any kind in a calendar year.
    Open more APHF dental and eye care shop fronts. They are brilliant and so few in number and distribution across Australia it’s not even funny.
    Stop ripping-off existing customers by providing better deals to just new customers, especially corporates.
    Do a better job of getting out information about which health professionals accept APHF patients – and which of those health professionals offer no-gap treatments for which of their services.
    Write back to me and tell me how my feedback is appreciated and will be considered as part of your customer improvement program. Actually, no need there. Please don’t.
    Ensure all amenable (heh) patients have a boobhat dental treatment option available.

    Give your frontline and customer-facing staff a bonus payment. They are some of the best in Australia and the only good thing about APHF.

    The other good thing APHF does is push a quite minimal amount of SPAM my way. Keep that up. Thanks.

    [I just added the boobhat line here. Didn’t really post that in the feedback. Sadly.]

    • I wholeheartedly and strongly recommend a boobhat to anyone going for any dental procedures…. it may not take your pain away but it certainly makes it fun 😛