Mortgage market suggests sluggish property rebound

Yesterday’s Lending to households and businesses release from the ABS revealed that total mortgage lending (excluding refinancings) rebounded strongly in July; albeit it was still down a hefty 14% over the year in trend terms, driven by an epic 22% crash in investor commitments, whereas owner-occupied commitments also fell by 11%:

As regular readers of MB will know, we consider the flow of housing and investor finance commitments to be premier indicators for dwelling value growth. This view is based on the incredibly strong historical correlation between finance and prices, as illustrated by the next charts:

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