Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The risk on mood has increased here in Asia with solid rises across most stock markets, although locally the ASX200 is dragging its feet. This is all due to the delay in Chinese tariffs, with bond yields rising and oil prices still under pressure post-Bolton “firing”.

The Shanghai Composite is making a comeback, currently up 0.3% to 3020 points while  the Hang Seng Index started well before a late selloff is seeing it down 0.2% to just above 27000 points, as the long awaited pause in this overbought rally comes to fruitition:

Japanese share markets continue to fly higher, helped again by a weaker Yen the Nikkei 225 surging another 1%  higher to 21817 points making another new daily high. The USDJPY pair accelerated up to and through the 108 handle but has come back slightly just as the City opens:

The ASX200 is still basically treading water, only up 0.2%% to recover its previous losses but not making much headway as the  Australian dollar weighs, almost hitting the 69 handle again in an upbeat mood and looking ready to have another go tonight:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are upbeat, with 0.2 to 0.4% gains predicted across the board as the S&P500 four hourly chart shows momentum building as it gets back over the 3000 point level again:

The economic calendar will focus squarely on the ECB meeting tonight, then a quick shift to the latest US CPI print, so watch out currency traders!

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  1. So, London…
    Last week the commons passed the brexit delay bill, as did the lords on Friday. Last I heard (reports from Monday) everyone in the pommy parliament was jumping up and down with excitement anticipating royal assent on Monday night.
    So now it’s Thursday morning and looking around on line, crickets…
    Has Boris won?

    • the Queen gave her assent to the law afaik. But all that requires is that BoJo resume talks with the EU. They obviously can’t compel him to negotiate well, in good faith or even at all. He could be sitting down and talking about cat videos and still fulfilling his duties.

      He is still in the driving seat because he prorogued parliament and the hard exit happens by default unless an alternate deal is agreed or an extension is agreed to.

      • Seems possible the EU refuses an extension. Or more likely that Boris asks for an extension with conditions (and thus EU refuses an extension).

      • BJ’s plan is tatters.He’s lost over 25 MPs; 6 parliamentary votes; the Opposition parties won’t comply on an election because they don’t’ trust him: Scottish courts said his prorogation was illegal and he’s had to give up Yellowhammer document of govts assessment of Brexit and it’s catastrophic. The law passed makes it mandatory for him to seek an extension and if not he will go to prison. It now looks as if he will comply and then resign thus keeping faith with his pledge. It’s not working for him and his clever retainer, Dom.

        • agree with most of that, especially the part where is plan is in tatters. But him seeking an extension doesn’t mean that the EU will grant one. Any agreement with the EU can also be veto’d by any single EU member, and there’s several which are matey with Farage and BoJo to a lesser extend.

          It hasn’t gone to plan but at the same time, he only needs to get to 31st October without an agreement.

      • Well, I ask because last time, back in April, the royal assent for a similar bill was all over the news, this time, nada. So I’m wondering if the palace is not happy with H.M.’s parliament?

    • Mark Blyth commented that Corbyn doesn’t want to be PM, he wants to destroy the Conservative party. The longer that this plays out the more i am coming to agree with him. The Labour Party are managing to obstruct the Tories while giving them more ripe to hang themselves with. BoJo appears to be procedurely out of his depth to the same degree that May was tactically. If you combined their strengths Labour and the EU might have had a problem. And I think that England might have had a running start post Brexit. It currently just appears to be a shambles.

  2. NYT via twitter: “18 years have passed since airplanes took aim and brought down the World Trade Center”. In other news Fireman Sam has been axed because, well he is a man, I’m sure the kids will miss it. Take me back to the good old days…

  3. Meanwhile back at the Ranch………

    Gladys Liu did not disclose membership of Chinese Government-linked organisations before Liberal Party preselection

    Besieged Liberal MP Gladys Liu did not disclose her membership of organisations linked to the Chinese Government’s foreign interference operations when she ran for preselection for the federal seat she now holds.
    The ABC has obtained the form Ms Liu submitted during the preselection process for the seat of Chisholm, which she won for the Liberal Party at the last federal election.

    All preselection candidates are obliged to fill in a section titled General and Community Activities, where they are supposed to list all organisations of which they are or have been a member or active supporter.

    Ms Liu listed 17 different organisations, including the Box Hill Chess Club, the Australian Dancing Society and the Rotary Club of Melbourne. She also made reference to having been an honorary president or adviser to “many community organisations”.

    She did not, however, declare her council membership of two chapters of an organisation called the China Overseas Exchange Association, which the ABC this week reported were part of the Chinese Government’s efforts to spread influence overseas.

    The ABC has previously reported that Ms Liu was an honorary chair of two other organisations linked to the Chinese Government’s United Front Work propaganda and foreign influence activities — the World Trade United Foundation and the United Chinese Commerce Association of Australia.

    In her application for endorsement, Ms Liu did not declare her membership of these two organisations either.

    Ms Liu released a statement this week in response to the growing furore over her ties to a number of Chinese Government-linked organisations, in which she admitted to having been a member of one chapter of the Chinese Overseas Exchange Association, the United Chinese Commerce Association of Australia and Jiangmen General Commercial Association.

    She did not disclose membership of the latter on her preselection application.

    As the endorsement application is an internal Liberal Party document, it is unclear whether candidates are obliged to disclose membership of foreign organisations, but Ms Liu disclosed previous membership of some Hong Kong-based community organisations.

    In the application, Ms Liu also claims to have raised more than $1 million for the Liberal Party by organising functions or bringing guests to fundraising dinners.

    At a function in October 2015 she supplied guests for five VIP tables at a total cost of $50,000. Those guests then bid for auction items, which Ms Liu said helped the dinner exceed its estimated revenue by $400,000.

    At an April 2016 federal election dinner, Ms Liu said she supplied 10 VIP tables that raked in $100,000 for the Liberal Party and “introduced high-value business and community leaders”.

    “The Chinese community naturally shares many of the values of the Liberal Party, including an affinity for hard work, self-reliance and initiative, achievement in business and education, family values and respect for the rules of society,” Ms Liu wrote in her accompanying statement.

    “But converting these natural values into support for the Liberal Party requires constant, active engagement. The Liberal Party in Victoria currently does not have an MP of Chinese background who can champion it at either federal or state level. If I were to become the first, it could enhance the Party’s support in that community across our state.”

    The debate over Ms Liu’s ties to various organisations intensified this week after a bruising interview with Sky News commentator Andrew Bolt, in which Ms Liu claimed to be unaware of her membership of some organisations and struggled to answer other questions.

    In the statement she subsequently released she said she had cut ties with “many organisations” and was in the process of auditing any organisations that may have added her as a member without her knowledge or consent.

    Ms Liu did not respond to the ABC’s request for comment regarding her preselection form.

    Nothing to see here, move along….

    Anybody seeing anything is racist……

    Look there’s an aboriginal footballer switching drug samples…….

    …..and the ALP wants the public to pay for people taking drugs, so thats why we need to test them – and not people claiming investment offsets, negative gears, not declaring capital gains, yada yada yada…..

    • And here I thought the whole paperless computer thingy was going to ring in glibertechlibertarianism … they even had a sweet power point presentation too … with lots of excel graphs …. a triumph ….

  4. Not enough coverage of this today. Much like the politicians that made a windfall at Fishermen’s Bend, we should be celebrating the adeptness of our politicians to profit from a good deal. The new Sydney Football Stadium in good hands.

    Mr Sidoti would not say how he acquired his stake in the property, which increased in value from $4.1 million to $70 million after favourable planning decisions

    • They like to have their cake and eat it too.
      Living in paid off houses,whinging about potential cuts to their franking credit refunds and now pretending to live off interest,

  5. I wonder what Scomo would think of this “grubby act”

    In today’s Notes On Adelaide, the Libs oddly attack one of their own supporters for having money as land tax madness intensifies. The debate over land tax aggregation has always been a fraught one for the Liberal State Government – not because it affects a broad sweep of the voting population, but rather because they had managed to annoy many heartland Liberal voters: well-to-do, professional, financially-savvy. The fallout has seen longtime party members and donors sever ties, with some repeatedly venting their spleen on social media and even canvassing the prospect of a breakaway ‘True Liberal’ movement.

  6. Oh jeebus we won the toss and are BOWLING.

    Mitch is there for his EXTRA BOWLING.

    For fvcken fcks sake.

  7. The Traveling Wilbur

    It’s a real pleasure watching the unique and manfiest talents of the Australian cricket test squad selectors work their magic on team performance and morale for a fifth time. Sorry, sixth time.

    Is Warner still in the first 11 btw? Yes? Excellent. Good show.

  8. US Surpassed Saudi Arabia, Russia To Become World’s Top Oil Exporter … Zerohedge

    The US has once again surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia to reclaim the No. 1 spot as the world’s largest oil exporter, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

    Record shale production helped the US ship nearly 9 million barrels of crude and other oil products a day in June, surpassing Saudi Arabia, Bloomberg reports. And as more companies build the infrastructure necessary to transport oil from fields in Texas and New Mexico to the coast, the amount of oil exported by the US is expected to climb. …. VIEW & READ MORE via hyperlink above …