We now have all the partials we can get to nowcast 2Q real GDP. And the tally has surprised us to the upside, even if it is short of current Consensus expectations
The trade balance has been revised higher, such that net exports will contribute 0.6% to real GDP growth.
Government consumption rose by 2.7% in 2Q, while investment fell by 2.3%. Overall, public spending contributed to quarterly growth.
Our nowcast has lifted materially to 0.1-0.2% real GDP growth, from a negative number previously (based on old and incomplete data). That said, Consensus was looking for an 0.5% quarterly growth number, and so we expect downward revisions to come across the street shortly.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
