In the September 2019 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its forecast for 2019 global liquid fuels consumption down to 100.8 million barrels per day (b/d), 0.1 million b/d lower than the August STEO and 0.7 million b/d lower than the January STEO. EIA attributes the lower forecast 2019 global oil consumption to a downward revision of 0.18 million b/d in the United States and Europe, in addition to downward revisions to forecast consumption in the Middle East and in India (Figure 1). If the September forecast is realized, 2019 would be the first year that global liquid fuels consumption grows less than 1.0 million b/d since 2011.
The latest STEO forecast for total global consumption growth reflects lower expected economic growth rates for 2019 compared with 2018. Based on forecasts from Oxford Economics, EIA has lowered the STEO forecast global oil-weighted gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection every month in 2019. In the January STEO, EIA forecast a 2019 year-over-year GDP growth rate of 2.9%, but in the September STEO, EIA forecast a 2.1% growth rate.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
