Chinese credit growth stalls

New yuan loans for august is out and the news is mixed. Total social financing was strong at 1.98tr yuan with banks at 1.2tr yuan:

The shadow banking share rebounded:

Growth is still positive though flattered by the base effect of last year’s deleveraging:

The rolling annual is climbing:

But M2 is flat-lined at 8.2%:

And broad credit has simply stopped accelerating:

It is a rebound but a much slower one than previous cycle. I expect the PBOC will need cut the cash rate before it really gets moving. In the meantime growth will ebb away.

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