New yuan loans for august is out and the news is mixed. Total social financing was strong at 1.98tr yuan with banks at 1.2tr yuan:
The shadow banking share rebounded:
Growth is still positive though flattered by the base effect of last year’s deleveraging:
The rolling annual is climbing:
But M2 is flat-lined at 8.2%:
And broad credit has simply stopped accelerating:
It is a rebound but a much slower one than previous cycle. I expect the PBOC will need cut the cash rate before it really gets moving. In the meantime growth will ebb away.