BIS Oxford: No Australian property boom coming

The latest QBE Australian Housing Outlook 2019-2022, based on forecasts by BIS Oxford Economics, projects only tepid property price growth over the next three years across most major capital city markets:

As shown above, Sydney’s and Melbourne’s house prices are projected to rise by only 6% and 7% respectively over the next three years, leaving them 13% and 10% respectively lower than their prior peaks.

The news is also unspectacular across the smaller markets. Outside of Brisbane (17%) and Adelaide (11%), no capital city market is projected to rise by more than 7% over the three years.

This means that Australia’s housing market is projected by BIS to grow at around the rate of inflation over the next three years – a very weak result given the amount of stimulus being poured on the housing market via interest rate cuts, macro-prudential loosening, and first home buyer grants.

These forecasts also appear similar to MB’s half-year special report, which forecast dwelling price growth of less than 5% nationally in 2020.

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  1. reusachtigeMEMBER

    If this is the case we need to Lower teh interest rates! This will be done and will always fix this thing.

  2. This won’t happen, prices will either boom or crash. A market as manipulated as this does not steadily rise with inflation.

  3. Hard to believe brisbane will boom 20percent based onwhat?
    Also hard to believe that the new normal is people shelling out 1.2 plus to be in good area ffs

    Also anecdotally a lot of spivey r.e agents in Brisbane western burbs

    • The APRA changes to remove the loan assessment rate floor has given everyone a > 20% bigger mortgage.
      More money chasing limited stock…

    • Brissy has had a significant influx of vibrants recently so that will provide some support but the main boost is coming from interstate – we’ve had a sh!tload of Sydney money come up here recently and is certainly giving the middle to top end a boost.

      Sensibly-priced properties are being snapped up like hot cakes and there is not much supply. Units are a different story but the vibrants are keen renters of these.

    • Jumping jack flash

      “Hard to believe brisbane will boom 20percent based onwhat?”

      Based on the fundamentals of course, trillions of debt dollars looking to be attached to something.

      Looks like they worked out finally that to return to the good old days of the 00s we need the same amount of debt expansion. Adjusted for inflation of course.

  4. Corelogic says Sydney and Melbourne are up about 2.5% in the last quarter, with most of that being in the last month. Sigh.

  5. All those hoping to skim the easy money of capturing Hong Kong runaways here might have to think twice. It seems some other land of the free is way more appealing. At least that’s what the flags tell me -