The latest QBE Australian Housing Outlook 2019-2022, based on forecasts by BIS Oxford Economics, projects only tepid property price growth over the next three years across most major capital city markets:
As shown above, Sydney’s and Melbourne’s house prices are projected to rise by only 6% and 7% respectively over the next three years, leaving them 13% and 10% respectively lower than their prior peaks.
The news is also unspectacular across the smaller markets. Outside of Brisbane (17%) and Adelaide (11%), no capital city market is projected to rise by more than 7% over the three years.
This means that Australia’s housing market is projected by BIS to grow at around the rate of inflation over the next three years – a very weak result given the amount of stimulus being poured on the housing market via interest rate cuts, macro-prudential loosening, and first home buyer grants.
These forecasts also appear similar to MB’s half-year special report, which forecast dwelling price growth of less than 5% nationally in 2020.