Victoria’s ponzi economy exposed

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Earlier this week, Victoria was ranked the number one economy by CommSec’s State of the States report, which drew a triumphant response from Victorian Treasurer Tim “Ponzi” Pallas:

“This latest data confirms what we already knew – Victoria is the nation’s economic pacesetter.” “Sound economic management and projects like the Metro Tunnel, level crossing removals and the North East Link are delivering rewards across key performance indicators, like jobs growth, retail trade or construction activity.” “We’ll keep on punching above our weight to create jobs and lay the foundations for future growth and prosperity.”

As we noted at the time, the areas driving Victoria’s so-called “prosperity” are all population-related, each of which requires the accumulation of more imports and debt, and a deteriorating current account balance, rather than genuine sustainable growth: Anyone disputing these facts only needs to look at the below chart showing the stalling of export growth amid the sharply deteriorating trade balance: Which has driven a gigantic trade deficit: Yesterday, The ABS released its Jobs in Australia, 2011-12 to 2016-17 survey, which perfectly illustrated the false economy Victoria is running. According to the ABS, median in Victoria is badly lagging the national average:

The median income per job (footnote 4) in Greater Melbourne region was higher than in the Rest of Victoria ($43,800 and $36,700 respectively) in 2016-17. The median income per job grew by 11.7% in Greater Melbourne and 13.9% in the Rest of Victoria since 2011-12. Nationally, the median income per job was $43,200 in 2016-17, slightly higher than the Victoria median of $42,100.

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Diving into the data reveals more bad news for Victorians, with Victoria having the second lowest median income on the mainland – only just beating out lowly Adelaide: From highest to lowest, median incomes are as follows across Australia’s jurisdictions:

  1. ACT: $54,774
  2. NT: $47,367
  3. WA: $45,973
  4. NSW: $43,795
  5. QLD: $42,692
  6. VIC: $42,134
  7. SA: $41,400
  8. TAS: $37,219

The story is similar at the capital city level, with Melbourne also having the second lowest median incomes on the mainland, only beating lowly Adelaide: Again, from highest to lowest here are the median incomes across the capitals:

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  1. Canberra: $54,774
  2. Darwin: $51,007
  3. Perth: $46,929
  4. Sydney: $46,464
  5. Brisbane: $45,164
  6. Melbourne: $43,791
  7. Adelaide: $42,981
  8. Hobart: $39,446

The annual state accounts from the ABS paint an even worse picture, with Victoria’s household income growth badly lagging behind the other jurisdictions: And Victoria having the lowest gross household disposable income in the nation, even lagging behind Tasmania: Victoria’s population ponzi economy is clearly failing to lift living standards for the incumbent population. In addition to crushing incomes, Melbourne’s infrastructure deficit, along with congestion, housing and overall liveability is worsening each year as more and more people flood into the city and push against bottlenecks amid woeful planning.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.