The unbelieveable boom in international students

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The Department of Education has released its International Student Data 2019, which has reported explosive growth in international student enrolments.

According to this data, international student enrolments surged by 69,500 (11%) in 2019, with enrolments ballooning by 290,000 (72%) over the past five years alone:

This growth has been driven by both higher education and vocational education and training (VET), whose enrolments have surged by 81% and 101% respectively over the past five years:

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China (201,000), India (101,000) and Nepal (52,000) are Australia’s three biggest sources of international students, with each nation also experiencing strong growth:

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Over the past five years, enrolments from China rose by 94,000, versus growth of 62,000 Indian students and 39,000 Nepalese students.

However, in percentage terms China’s 88% growth in international students was dwarfed by both India (155%) and Nepal (320%) over the past five year.

Turning to Australia’s jurisdictions, you can see that international student enrolments are dominated by New South Wales (267,000) and Victoria (227,000), which together accounted for 71% of Australia’s enrolments as at May 2019:

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These two jurisdictions have experienced the strongest growth in international student enrolments over the past five years of 118,000 (80%) and 105,000 (86%) respectively.

Moreover, according to the Australian Skills Quality Authority, 97% of international students studied in a major city in 2018, with the majority of these students studying in Sydney and Melbourne.

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Interestingly, New South Wales’ international student boom has been driven by both China (77,000) and Nepal (34,000), whose enrolments have surged by 35,000 and 27,000 respectively over the past five years:

By comparison, Victoria’s international student boom has been driven primarily by China (69,000) and India (48,000), whose enrolments have surged by 35,000 and 29,000 respectively over the past five years:

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Looking ahead, the latest biannual data from the Department of Home Affairs shows that student visa applications from China fell by 3.3% in 2H 2019, which was more than offset by explosive growth from India (53.5%) and Nepal (47.8%):

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Therefore, Australia’s future international student growth appears dependant on India and Nepal, which tend to study at second tier universities and private vocational colleges, often for the primary purpose of gaining working rights and permanent residency.

This is reflected by increasing concerns around degraded education standards and quality.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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