UBS: Wage growth done as women, aged, migrants fight for jobs

Via the marvelous George Theranou of UBS:

Since the start of the year we expected GDP to drop, gradually raising unemployment, vs consensus & RBA still expect a flat/falling UR. This is the key driver of our dovish view of a peak in wages growth (also reflecting public sector wage caps). Importantly, the RBA just changed its wages view to “likely to remain low & to increase more gradually than earlier expected. As a result, inflation is likely to take longer to rise to 2%”.

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