UBS: Property transactions terrible lead for consumption

Via the excellent George Theranou at UBS:

Sales collapse to 23-year low, a negative lead for renovations & consumption

The number of home sales (12-month sum) collapsed by ~21% y/y, from -13% last year, to the lowest level in 23 years. The turnover rate (sales divided by stock) collapsed to a record low near ~3%, a negative lead for renovations & consumption. That said, approvals for renovations have been surprisingly resilient despite weak sales.

Actually it much worse than that. This is a terrible lead for the entire property parasite sector which trades on volume not prices: realtors, listing firms, legal etc. Not to mention state governments and their stamp duty revenues.

Given we see little better than an L-shaped recovery for prices, all of these will act as ongoing employment headwinds.

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