It’s going to funny watching this unfold. Today’s June trade balance was a massive $8bn surplus as iron ore went nuts. This means a massive $19bn trade surplus for the June quarter.
Given the capital account deficit has been running at about $15bn per quarter, it is likely that Australia just printed its first current surplus since 1971.
The only problem is, as bulk commodities crash, it’s going to last one quarter:
That assumes Australia can stumble through with weak growth next year. If recession transpires then the deficit will be smaller but still very unlikely to be a surplus.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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