Stamp duty bust wipes $2.4b from NSW Budget

The NSW Office of State Revenue has released stamp duty data to July, which reveals a massive $1.69 billion (25%) decline over the past year and a $2.45 billion (33%) decline since stamp duty receipts peaked in October 2017:

The slump in stamp duty receipts follows a sharp 24% decline in property transfers in the year to July and a 29% fall since peak:

The annual decline in revenue has dwarfed the GFC experience:

It also makes the NSW Budget’s forecast look highly optimistic:

That said, with more rate cuts still to come, APRA lowering its interest rate buffer and smaller bank capital requirements, ASIC losing its HEM lawsuit against Westpac (pointing to loosening lending standards by the major banks), and first home buyer stimulus due to come into effect from 1 January 2020, Sydney’s housing market should continue to rebound. And with it, so too should stamp duty receipts.

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