Mortgage market points to weak property rebound

Yesterday’s Lending to households and businesses release from the ABS revealed that total mortgage lending (excluding refinancings) began to rebound in June; albeit it was still down a hefty 18% over the year in trend terms, driven by an epic 26% crash in investor commitments, whereas owner-occupied commitments also fell by 15%:

As regular readers of MB will know, we consider the flow of housing and investor finance commitments to be premier indicators for dwelling value growth. This view is based on the incredibly strong historical correlation between finance and prices, as illustrated by the next charts:

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