Macro Morning

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By Chris Becker 

The end of the northern hemisphere summer break usually spells doom and gloom on risk markets, and that’s where the mood takes us at the moment with Friday nights US unemployment print unable to shake confidence back into the complex. More threats and cajoling on both sides of the US/China trade war – plus some minor skirmishes between South Korea and Japan, and of course, the usual Brexit melodrama – are threatening to topple the whole thing over. The USD is being bid left right and center while commodities are sold off, with copper putting in a disastrous week as a bellwether.

Looking at the action on Asian markets Friday, where the Shanghai Composite fell nearly 2% before mildly recovering to finish only 1.4% lower at 2867 points while the Hang Seng Index had a huge gap down to close 2.4% lower at 26918 points. This puts it almost back to the May lows in one foul swoop, taking out all of the recent advances. Whether this is due to internal protest pressures and a looming big boot stamped “Made in China” coming to restore Communist happiness, or reaction to the rest of Asia selling off is unsure. But if those May lows are taken out its off to the September 2018 lows at 23000:

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