Macro Afternoon

The bounce continues as stock markets across Asia lift again following last night’s rally on Wall Street, with the currency market relatively quiet although some USD weakness has crept in late in the session.

Chinese stocks have switched sentiment to the worst performing, with the Shanghai Composite falling going into the close, currently down 0.2% at 2875 points while the Hang Seng Index is barely up 0.2% to be at 26339 points. Following yesterday’s great result its no surprise there’s a bit of a hiccup here as price tries to break out above the previous bounce point:

Japanese share markets are doing really well despite a lift in Yen late in the session with the Nikkei 225 lifting over 0.5% to finish at 20674 points. The USDJPY pair has been unable to break Monday’s session highs and has retraced below the 106.50 level, tentatively breaking the uptrend from mid last week:

The ASX200 is having a great week so far, up another 1% to close at 6539 points, while the Australian dollar has bounced on the release of the RBA Minutes, currently matching Friday’s highs at just a smidge under the 68 handle:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures were firming but have now turned flat before the European open, up only 0.1% or so indicating potential volatility ahead. The S&P500 four hourly chart shows price heading back up to significant resistance at the 2930 point level but the question is can this be sustained:

The economic calendar is really quiet tonight with only tertiary level releases and not much else on the radar.

Comments

  1. The Horrible Scott Morrison MP

    I see that incel John Adams was on the telly. He’s always moaning about something or other because he isn’t prepared to have go.

    • John doesn’t understand, boom times ahead. That’s why he was fired from the Liberal party, he wasn’t willing to have a go. So he got given the boot.

    • Well as the honourable PM you must pull strings and have that ABC News producer fired for employing him. The PCA goons will be on your doorstep if you don’t.

  2. The world’s largest new container ship MSC GULSUN arrives in Europe …

    World’s biggest cargo ship – longer than 36 buses – arrives in Europe … UK Telegraph (behind paywall)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/19/worlds-biggest-cargo-ship-longer-36-buses-arrives-europe/

    The latest giant of the seas, the MSC Gülsün, has docked in Europe after its first voyage from northern China set a record for container ships.

    The 400 metre (1,312ft) vessel is longer than 36 London buses and can transport 23,576 standard 20ft long shipping containers – known as “TEUs” (Twenty Foot Equivalent units).

    According to owner MSC Mediterranean Shipping, that means the ship can transport 8.35m microwave ovens, 223m bananas or 386m pairs of shoes in a single load.

    To carry the equivalent cargo load by road would require 14,000 lorries or 1,350 Jumbo jets. … read more via hyperlink above …

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    .
    … with leading environmental innovations and advancements …

    World’s largest container ship completes first voyage from Asia to Europe … American Journal of Transportation

    https://www.ajot.com/news/worlds-largest-container-ship-completes-first-voyage-from-asia-to-europe

    Google NZ Search ‘msc gulsun’

    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=A4ZbXbbLOpuA9QOM-KfADQ&q=msc+gulsun&oq=msc+gulsun&gs_l=psy-ab.12..

  3. Just about that Chinese decal car.

    Surely it would be keyed within an inch of its life?

    I know my reaction if I saw it…….

    • Yah me too as I couldn’t key deserving cards while over there. Those bloody surveillance cameras are EVERYWHERE!!!

    • How many of them are about? Maybe they are doing a Chinese remake of The Blues Brothers here and are starting to stockpile them for the chase scene. “We’re in a mission from Xi.”

  4. did any one see Chris Joy with Switzer on YouTube? i could not make a conclusion of what he was about apart form no recession ,curve yield is useless and house prices will be growing 10%

    • Chris Joye is a confused soul these days. He doesn’t want to call a 20% price drop a crash. Apparently, it’s an “orderly correction” 🤦‍♂️

      Listen to him on the Jolly swagger podcast

      • Switzers face got light when Chris said no bust in Oz and prices will be up.. Seems 🐻 with 🐻 and 🐂 with 🐂

    • His comment on the yield curve doesn’t make much sense to me. Yes it reflects expectation of rate cuts. But why is the bond market pricing in lower policy rates if not for a greater risk of recession? There is no story you can tell where an inverted yield curve isn’t a signal of recession. If it reflects CB mistakes then those mistakes will hurt the economy, if it reflects a worsening outlook independent of the CB then the economy is stuffed if the outlook is correct. Either way the yield curve can’t be wrong which is why it has predicted almost every recession. In truth it is more likely to be right now given short term rates a so close to zero anyway.

    • No compulsory super for anyone under 23 seems reasonable. Would prevent the accurance of dozens of fee-charging super funds as well, before one settles into a steady job.

      • That’s a bit of a cop out. When I was young apprentices started working full-time at 16, from what I hear it’s still the same now. It’s also much easier now to take your super with you from job to job. Maybe if we took the time to teach our young uns some financial/super literacy, instead of taking the LNP aproach of infantilising until 25, this nation would be better off.

    • The Horrible Scott Morrison MP

      I support the minimum wage because it makes entry level jobs illegal and keeps the young and minorities on their knees.

  5. https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/stage/the-funniest-joke-from-the-edinburgh-festival-fringe-2019-1.3990803

    10 funniest jokes of the 2019 fringe
    1. I keep randomly shouting out “Broccoli” and “Cauliflower”. I think I might have Florets. – Olaf Falafel

    2. Someone stole my antidepressants. Whoever they are, I hope they’re happy. – Richard Stott

    3. What’s driving Brexit? From here it looks like it’s probably the Duke of Edinburgh. – Milton Jones

    4. A cowboy asked me if I could help him round up 18 cows. I said, “Yes, of course. That’s 20 cows.” – Jake Lambert

    5. A thesaurus is great. There’s no other word for it. – Ross Smith

    6. Sleep is my favourite thing in the world. It’s the reason I get up in the morning. – Ross Smith

    7. I accidentally booked myself on to an escapology course; I’m really struggling to get out of it. – Adele Cliff

    8. After learning six hours of basic semaphore, I was flagging. – Richard Pulsford

    9. To be or not to be a horse rider, that is Equestrian. – Mark Simmons

    10. I’ve got an Eton-themed advent calendar, where all the doors are opened for me by my dad’s contacts. – Ivo Graham

    • They always crack me up……….

      I’m thinking about selling my vacuum cleaner.

      Well it’s just sitting there gathering dust.

    • Radio Yerevan Q&A:

      Q: is it true that aspirin can be used as a contraceptive?
      A: yes, it is true, if she holds the pill between her knees…

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Went to my first, and last, AA meeting today.

      Anonymous my arse. They make you put on a name badge!

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      The shipping company dropped my cargo container overboard while unloading it in port.

      I tried building a bridge and getting over it.

    • Not funny warning…sorry
      Interesting. All word jokes. None of the Take my mother-in-law…please or other situational humor. Nothing wrong with that, word jokes make me laugh, but humor is changing.

    • In a corrupt country founded by convicts I would expect nothing less than him walking a free man, after all it was only a plain vanilla child sexual abuse case

    • The whole thing is laughable 4 to 1, manufacturing is not coming back to the U.S. anytime soon. Mfg is energy – raw material costs w/a side of regulatory arb, labor is only about 5%. Yet at the same time him and trump are yammering on about CB IR and getting taken to the wood shed …. which is it lmmao … grow the pig’ bigger Larry … chortle …

  6. … HONG KONG …

    Hong Kong protests: Carrie Lam calls for dialogue with citizens | World news | The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/20/carrie-lam-calls-for-dialogue-with-citizens-to-find-way-out-for-hong-kong

    Leader says she hopes calm will now be restored, but protesters dismiss offer as trap.

    Hong Kong’s embattled leader, Carrie Lam, has said she will “immediately” set up a platform for dialogue with citizens and tackle complaints against the police, after a weekend of peaceful protests that she hoped would be the start of a return to calm in the financial hub. Her offer was dismissed by activists as “a trap”, however.

    “Work will start immediately to build a platform of dialogue,” Lam said. “We hope this dialogue can be built upon a basis of mutual understanding and respect to find a way out for Hong Kong.” … read more via hyperlink above …

  7. NEW ZEALAND: National Party MPs and supporters need to join with National Chris Bishop MP and support Governments housing and urban development reforms …

    (New Zealand National MP Chris) Bishop on Housing – Kiwiblog

    https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2019/08/bishop_on_housing.html

    Contact: Chris Bishop MP
    [email protected]
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Bishop_(politician)

    An excellent post by Hutt South MP Chris Bishop on the housing problem in the Hutt. First the facts:

    • The average house in Lower Hutt is now $596,000. This is about 6 times the median household income in New Zealand.

    • The average rent in Lower Hutt is $452 per week.

    • The social housing wait list in the Hutt is at record levels, with 404 clients waiting for a house.

    • The government is spending a million dollars every quarter on housing people in motels in the Hutt Valley.

    • Housing NZ has only built 4 units (16 bedrooms) since September 2017.

    Then the diagnosis:

    It’s all about supply … read more via hyperlink above …
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    ( Posting full version … in moderation) https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2019/08/bishop_on_housing.html/comment-page-1#comment-2542893 … and …