Macro Afternoon

Some stability has returned to risk markets as bond yields rise slightly while the USD firms against commodity proxies and the Yuan proper.  Going into the European session, Euro is selling off already while gold has retraced from its recent record high.

The Shanghai Composite has continued its little rebound to finish 0.3% or so higher to advance beyond 2800 to 2823 points while the Hang Seng Index is also moving higher, up 0.8% after yesterday’s rebound to finish at 25702 points. Not quite a weekly high, but a good effort nonetheless after selling off during most of the week, with the daily chart still spelling a lot of trouble ahead if it breaks below 25000 points proper:

Japanese share markets are just hanging on as Yen buying abates a little with the Nikkei 225 putting in a scratch session to finish at 20413 points. The USDJPY pair is starting to firm here after remaining in a tight band the last 24 hours or so and has the potential to breakout above the 106.40 level as volatility reduces to pre-breakout levels:

The ASX200 was the worst in the region, but only fell a handful of points to finish off a forgettable week at 6405 points, taking away the last 3 months of gains. The Australian dollar was lifting mid session but has retraced to remain below the 68 handle as it is still unable to get above last Friday’s highs, which still signals weakness ahead:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are firming nicely, up 0.6% or so indicating more volatility ahead tonight as everyone watches the yield curve again. The S&P500 four hourly chart shows significant resistance at the 2890 point level to clear to turn this dead cat bounce around but I remain unconvinced:

The economic calendar finishes the week with the University of Michigan sentiment print and not much else. Have a good weekend!

Comments

    • My sentiments entirely! Been dealing with some copro-grammers in Syderney… turns out that it’s not the fken firewall, it’s the fcken application at the other end. So, I declared the wild goose chase over, nearly an hour late heading home because some cvnt was too lazy to check their own work and made it my problem. It’s urgent urgent urgent, until the cvnt needs to do the work, then, it’s suddenly very much OK to leave it until fcken Monday…

      • Have a boss like that. Sets fvcken ridiculous deadlines we work to meet then quick as a flash, nothing happens. It’s a running joke that said boss hacks on other departments for taking too long to produce reports yet we can’t remember any report he’s ever released on time if at all over the last 18 months.

      • I don’t have sympathy for anyone, generally.

        But you have my sympathy Ino. Some cvnts really deserve to be strangled, but you get into too much trouble if you strangle said cvnts. It aches me.

      • In the military this is called hurry up and wait … makes your stronger … have a strong cup of concrete and harden up … sigh …

      • TTW – I leave that non-conventional kinky stuff to Reusa.

        Traditional in-the-box activities for me.

      • Farken Kiwis. It’s not pronounced “lid” it’s L.E.D. – pronounced “EL EE DEE”.

        And no, the box doesn’t have an L.E.D. It’s dark inside.

      • I feel your pain Ino, it’s always the fault of the bit the fukkers don’t understand- and that’s always the network or the firewall.
        I recommend you try a tree change; pigs and cattle are really easy to manage by comparison and if you do ever get a really annoying one, you just eat it – problem solved 😉

      • Yeah skip… I know… rookie mistake. Taking another cvnt’s word at face value over what my eyes were seeing…. cvnts, syderney cvnts no less.

  1. NEW ZEALAND … Kiwis supporting more affordable cruise holidays big time … as they demand more affordable housing too ( ‘the flight to affordability’) … http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org

    … Further reasons why New Zealand must urgently deal with its land use regulatory environment (abolish urban limits / increase land supply and properly debt finance infrastructure) … so that much more competitive property markets are allowed to evolve and visitors and tourists get better value for money … like the inspirational and dynamic customer focused cruise industry …

    Cruise ship numbers and spend swell … Statistics New Zealand
    h/t Interest Co NZ

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/cruise-ship-numbers-and-spend-swell

    Cruise ship spending is going full steam ahead, swelling 28 percent to $570 million in the year ended June 2019, Stats NZ said today.

    The $125.2 million lift in annual cruise spending reflected a surge in the number of cruise voyages, port calls, and passengers. This followed an 11 percent increase for the June 2018 year.

    “Cruise ship spending has risen every year since 2015, but the annual increase in the latest 12 months is the biggest in both dollar and percentage terms,” national accounts senior manager Gary Dunnet said. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Bumper cruise ship season nears as other tourist sectors slow … Grant Bradley … New Zealand Herald (behind paywall)

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12257887

    The tourism boom is over, prepare for visitor numbers to flatline … Amanda Cropp … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/114639609/the-tourism-boom-is-over-prepare-for-visitor-numbers-to-flatline

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      thanks for sharing the video – great interview. the mark of a truly smark people is when they can explain complex topics succintly and in an accessible way. Used to love El-Erian’s regular updates when he was at Pimco

  2. interested party

    “A “negative yield curve“; a pending “economic recession“. These are the obtuse and ridiculous proclamations of the Mainstream Corporate Media today. So let’s take a moment to discuss how stunningly -intentionally- disconnected they are.”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/08/14/stunning-day-of-economic-gaslighting-despite-all-positive-data-corporate-media-cheering-for-recession/#more-168290

    Does this make sense to you lot? Kinda does to me , but above my pay grade….several levels.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    So M/r/rs/iss modbot has been quiet of late. Is it possible it/s/he has surrendered?

    Also, is Nick Kyrgios’s fine the most it’s cost anyone for having a swear? Anyone happen to know?

    • $165,000 fine. Good deserved. What an absolute idiot.
      What is it with Celebrities behaving badly?
      https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/9734003/conor-mcgregor-old-man-punch-ufc/

      Connor punches an old man in a bar? I’ll bet the old man told him he wasn’t special. Typical of the Irish, they don’t suffer fools and big ego’s. Probably told Connor to “fook orff” and probably deserved it also.

      Thing is, with Nick is that kids look up to Tennis stars and this sets a terrible example of poor sportsmanship.. giving the kid a broken racket, that seems pretty low to me.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Give up on cricket years ago when Tony Grieg retired …..and the new money punks took over …….looks like tennis is going the same way……….and it’s nice we have a wog to go hard for it ……Would Laver and his mum approve ?…..does Straya approve ?………should straya expect better from their wogs ….well they used to ……….

      • Not protecting Kyrgios or wogs, just have issue with the suggestion that traditional aussie culture is any better.
        By way of evidence….picked up Over The Top With Jim by Hugh Lunn the other day which harks back to the gracious gentlemanly era of Lew Hoad and Rocket Laver etc dining elegantly on cutlets before a quick couple of sets at the club and then cocktails and a dance…anyway Hugh had a mate whose name I cannot recall who was a tennis brat and bloody near indistinguishable from Kyrgios in his behavior.
        Tennis itself is a major problem…to excel at that sport you have to be dedicated beyond reason basically from toddlerhood, so the kids don’t grow up properly. Hewitt a case in point, but there are many many others…even the Great Federer has busted his share of racquets.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Edit ..
        ……..although the wogs often do a great job in reflecting Straya back to itself f …( Con the fruitier) ……..maybe this prick is doing a great social service to a grateful nation
        ………….

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        JR …you are right …..sport lost its meaning when it was monetised…..

        “There’s a breathless hush in the Close to-night –
        Ten to make and the match to win –
        A bumping pitch and a blinding light,
        An hour to play and the last man in.
        And it’s not for the sake of a ribboned coat,
        Or the selfish hope of a season’s fame,
        But his Captain’s hand on his shoulder smote
        “Play up! play up! and play the game!”

      • TT,
        It may not be the money, it could be how removed they are from society. Now that may be a money issue but I think if they weren’t separated from the world at such a young age then they would mature. It’s the same issue with the professional politician. I’ve mentioned these a few times but Gideon Haigh’s and Geoff Lemon’s books on the sand paper incidents are damning indictments of cricket culture. Both the dumb arrogance of Waugh and the dumb corporatism of CA.

  4. The Traveling Wilbur

    I wish warner was batting again.

    So I could enjoy watching Broad take another wicket.

      • That is what he is! I do hope he doesn’t start getting arrogant. He still looks hungry though.

    • facing up progressively further and further outside off stump that he will eventually circumnavigate the globe and end up facing up on leg stump.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Unless… he does that to a ball he should have cut to mid-off first… and manages to get himself hit in the back of the head with it instead.

        How do you get hit in the head by a ‘bouncer’ outside off-stump? Let alone the back of…

  5. BUSINESS LEAVING CHINA …

    Uncertainty hangs over Foxconn’s newest China factory as trade war and economic slowdown take a toll … He Huifeng … South China Morning Post

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3023244/uncertainty-hangs-over-foxconns-newest-china-factory-trade

    • Guangzhou facility was supposed to begin operations next month, but now everyone involved is ‘a bit embarrassed’ over its uncertain future

    • A firm linked to Foxconn founder Terry Gou has reportedly been trying to sell the plant, which was supposed to boost China’s role in the global value chain … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    Recent Sydney Morning Herald articl;e

    ‘Brutal consequences’: Ansell warns China over exodus of manufacturers … Darren Gray … Sydney Morning Herald

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/brutal-consequences-ansell-warns-china-over-exodus-of-manufacturers-20190812-p52gat.html

    Ansell chief executive Magnus Nicolin has warned China of “brutal” consequences as manufacturers leave the country over rising costs and fears at the escalation in trade war with Donald Trump.

    “So many manufacturers are moving out of China at breakneck speed. You don’t see it in the China-reported GDP growth numbers yet. I suspect that sooner or later it will be visible,” Mr Nicolin said. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    Google NZ Search ‘Business Leaving China’

    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=vopYXYCsNZfQvQTSkaeADQ&q=business+leaving+china&oq=business+leaves+china&gs_l=psy-ab.1.0.0i13j0i13i5i30.2940.10121..

  6. … ARGENTINA … Economic & Political Woes …

    Sovereign debt default increasingly likely in Argentina – as prospect of a Leftist leader spooks markets … UK Telegraph (behind paywall)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/17/sovereign-debt-default-increasingly-likely-argentina-prospect/

    Mauricio Macri will probably lose his presidency in the aisles of Argentinian supermarkets. The country’s beleaguered shoppers, who have already endured a 60pc surge in food prices in just 12 months, will face even higher costs in the coming weeks.

    The peso collapsed to new record lows on Monday and shops are already receiving bigger bills for imported products, such as oils and flour. … read more via hyperlink above (behind paywall) …
    .
    .
    Argentine Economy Minister Dujovne Resigns After Market Rout … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-17/argentina-economy-minister-dujovne-resigns-after-peso-plunge