Macro Afternoon

Markets are in a mixed mood as we head into the European session as Brexit, Itali-exit and Tianneman Square Part Deux demonstrations put a damper on risk appetite, with most stock markets off while the USD remains firm against most of the majors.

The Shanghai Composite has given up after its initial good start to the week yesterday, retracing half of those gains to fall 0.6% to 2796 points while the Hang Seng Index is no longer hanging on but selling in earnest as domestic risks outweigh all else, down 1.8% to 25365 points. This put below the January lows at 25000 and matches the previous daily lows from last week, with the daily chart spelling a lot of trouble ahead with very poor momentum:

Japanese share markets have reopened from their holiday with the Nikkei 225 playing catchup to close 1.1% lower at 20455 points. The USDJPY pair has finally firmed a little, remaining just above the 105.30 level after teasing a break below the 105 handle proper. The bearish descending triangle pattern on the four hourly chart that broke on Friday night is still in play with the next target at the longer term level nearer 104:

The ASX200 is the best in the region, relatively speaking, falling only 0.3% to close at 6568 points, still unable to breach the 6600 barrier. The Australian dollar is steady against USD but remains elevated versus NZD while firming against Yen, with the AUDUSD pair looking to trundle along here below the 68 handle:

S&P futures are up 0.2% or so while Eurostoxx futures are down 0.1% with the S&P500 four hourly chart still showing a potential slowdown just above trailing support at the 2860 point level that must hold tonight otherwise more dead cats:

The economic calendar continues with two big ones tonight: the closely watched German ZEW survey and US CPI for July

Comments

  1. NEW ZEALAND: The Fonterra Fiasco … Heather du Plessis-Allan – Shane Jones – Keith Woodford …

    Heather du Plessis-Allan: Farmers deserve answers from Fonterra … NewsTalkZB

    https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/heather-du-plessis-allan-drive/opinion/heather-du-plessis-allan-farmers-deserve-answers-from-fonterra/

    Fonterra’s ‘enlarged corporate egos’ to blame for dairy giant’s downfall, Shane Jones says | Stuff.co.nz

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/114952590/fonterra-executives-enlarged-corporate-egos-to-blame-for-dairy-giants-downfall-shane-jones-says

    Keith Woodford explains how Fonterra’s capital shortage has now got a great deal worse, with no easy answers … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/101170/keith-woodford-explains-how-fonterra%E2%80%99s-capital-shortage-has-now-got-great-deal

    • Interesting stuff. I recall raising (public) funding for Fonterra back in the day. Popular deal: boring but stable cashflows. That said, Fonterra was a private entity with ‘public sector’ qualities i.e. a worse-than-useless-management. These developments should yield no surprises if truth be told. An incompetent management that has extended itself way beyond its true abilities.

  2. For those still confused about currency …

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2018/04/26/the-petro-dollar-is-a-myth-the-petro-yuan-mere-fantasy/

    …it was a long time ago when the link between oil and the dollar mattered much at all beyond the financial returns of non-dollar based oil companies. Since the 1980s, the dollar has been consolidated as the global reserve currency because of the strength and dynamism of the U.S. economy, and oil exporters have demanded to be paid in U.S. dollars because that’s the currency they prefer to hold on to. To do otherwise is to take on exchange risk. Exporters can, and routinely do, accept payment in whatever exchange medium they wish — tanks, planes and construction services — but their central banks demand dollars for reasons entirely unconnected to oil. Because the U.S. dollar is a hard currency, easily exchangeable, underwritten by the U.S. taxpayer, and founded upon decades of broadly consistent macro-economic policy management.

    Those who believe that oil being traded in U.S. dollars gives the U.S. economy a unique advantage in the global economy have it exactly the wrong way around. The U.S. economy is the central economy in the global system because it is the most open, innovative, and productive economy in the world, and because of this, the U.S. dollar is the most convenient, liquid and reliable medium of exchange. One can imagine another currency challenging it at some point in the future, but only on the basis of the openness of its underlying economy, and the depth of the capital markets denominated in it. – Snip

    Additionally Kelton touches on this … but yeah … it screws with the ideological agenda some would like to “push” …

    • I would add that China will not sell its USD denominated paper because that would push the Chinese renminbi up and that would throw a spanner in the whole trade war dynamic …

      • Correct, added to which –
        – why would they intentionally devalue their own forex reserves / holdings, and
        – who would buy that many bonds off them anyway, and
        – what would China buy with the proceeds? It’s not clear there is any other asset class big enough…

    • What ‘agenda’ is that? Nothing new (or enlightening) in what ‘Snip’ has to say. Just because the US has the most open and innovative economy is irrelevant — they also have a defence budget that dwarfs the next 4 or 5 biggest put together. And a welfare budget that is out of control. This matters to the US Dollar as it would matter to any other currency that is being expanded relentlessly to ‘pay the country’s bills’. Nvm

      • A. the defense budget is pure MMT and you will notice there is never any dramas with increasing it, in fact its great, because under the currant ideological perspective it means you can take money away from social policy or further privatize government under PR that its more efficient.

        B. Americas private health system cost twice as much as any other developed nation with diminishing returns for the service its supposed to give, not to mention the amount of corruption in looting the government funded aspect you decry. Its been clearly shown that it would be lower cost just to expand medicare by rolling 5 year inclusion by age.

        C. Your confusion is due to your beliefs about commodity money being projected on Fiat currancy and then conflating public debt with private E.g. private debt is the monster under the bed i.e. what part about the 34Tish not getting a whiff of inflation is confusing to you ….

    • The reason you and I can never agree on anything is because you believe that any Govt can print all the money it needs (out of thin air) to pay its bills — without any negative consequences. This, despite numerous examples that contradict this stance: Roman Empire, Weimar, Zimbabwe, Venezuela etc.

      I, on the other hand, believe the entire opposite. The fiat money system is not long for this world and I prepare accordingly because I have dependents who will suffer tremendously if I don’t take steps to hedge real risks. My stance is that anything you can create out of thin air cannot have any intrinsic value and so I have a natural suspicion of ‘fiat’. Because I understand proper economics I understand what will happen to the value of money if you undermine it by adding to the supply of it by simply turning the printers on. There is not much inflation right now (not officially anyway) but when it comes, as it surely will, it will come quickly and faith in worthless paper will evaporate like the morning mist, and there will be precious little, by this time, that anyone can do to respond.

      There is not point us going to and fro on this subject: this is like an atheist debating a fundamentalist Christian — there are never any winners, just lots of shouting.

      • The reason you and I can never agree on anything is because you believe that any Govt can print all the money it needs (out of thin air) to pay its bills — without any negative consequences.

        Nobody says this. No matter how many times you try and insist they do, they don’t.

      • Smithy, you don’t have to state it in plain English. Anyone who supports the idea of MMT believes it, by default.

        MMT is simply an exercise in pulling ‘money’ out of your ar$e and distributing it to the people. This is an idea that only the economically illiterate would support.

        Robert Mugabe tried it, with predictable results, but I guess MMT’s supporters would claim he just ‘wasn’t doing it right’. LMFAO.

        Honestly, don’t stress about it, we’ll see the results soon enough. In the meanwhile, chillax, have a beer and worry about other things. Debate on this subject is pointless.

    • Hate speech which promotes the perspective of violence to people or property is what again – ???? – then again austerity is its own gift ….

      • Gav ….

        Consider the experience of fallujah for the innocent after a war was started on propaganda alone, importation of those experiencing such events acting out or being diminished as a result by association is a curious dilemma.

        Having lived in Manhattan Bch where down the path from my residence a doctors mother was stabbed in the chest, on a Sunday, whilst having breakfast in their courtyard next to the Strand pedestrian bike path, at the beach, must have been a case of ethnic terrorism by a homeless psychologically disturbed person [female] by your inferred logic.

        But then again Reagan did dismantle the state psychiatric system on the auspices of freedom and liberty with a side of private prison complex investor demand.

        For a good time please do step outside of your accommodation in Orlando Fl whilst enjoying Disney World at night … ISIS is everywhere ….

      • @Skippy, point taken. Just seems of late there is a lot of nutters running around killing innocent people chanting certain things about god being great. I am not a fan of most religion as you may know, except of course the Church of the FSM… If someone rungs around stabbing others with a colander on their head and chanting something about spaghetti I might reconsider that.

      • You might find that its the attraction or enabling that some are drawn too, in the first place, or that malleable people are not that hard to find. I mean Westboro or our Brethren is not confusing too me, anymore than say Prosperity Churches, nor old school sorts like Jim Baker with an upgrade like Heavens Gate.

        So before reacting to post events I think its important to considered whats allowed to be said considering the facts and what individual and social psychological factors might be at play. For instance my wife attends the prison around here and has tended individuals in the high security area. One example is a big cold blooded sort that is quite amicable under most conditions, but can go off when triggered, seems his dad wanted to toughen him up as a kid and sat him in a abandoned vehicle on their property and took pot shots at it with a high powered rifle. So what do you think the chances are they would be in prison had they not experienced such events as a kid …..

      • Gav …

        I would also recommended –

        Going Postal: Rage, Murder, and Rebellion from Reagan’s Workplaces to Clinton’s Columbine and Beyond – by Mark Ames

        Going Postal examines the phenomenon of rage murder that took America by storm in the early 1980’s and has since grown yearly in body counts and symbolic value. By looking at massacres in schools and offices as post-industrial rebellions, Mark Ames is able to juxtapose the historical place of rage in America with the social climate after Reaganomics began to effect worker’s paychecks. But why high schools? Why post offices? Mark Ames examines the most fascinating and unexpected cases, crafting a convincing argument for workplace massacres as modern day slave rebellions. Like slave rebellions, rage massacres are doomed, gory, sometimes inadvertently comic, and grossly misunderstood. Going Postal seeks to contextualize this violence in a world where working isn’t—and doesn’t pay—what it used to. Part social critique and part true crime page-turner, Going Postal answers the questions asked by commentators on the nightly news and films such as Bowling for Columbine. (less)

        https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/64821.Going_Postal

        On the other hand one can look at the suicide rate in the period of the wild wild west through local obituaries and how that squares with the romanticism, let alone non judicial hangings, public shoot outs, oligarchical power over state and local politics, et al …

  3. interested partyMEMBER

    You all know that Bill Gates flew the lolita express with dead jeff?

    How about Marvin Minsky? of MIT? Implicated in an recently unsealed indictment…..although he’s dead now. He was 73…she was 17 at the time of the alleged rape. Dead jeff kept a few secrets…..

    Big names keep coming out…..I wonder if the info on Bohemian Grove will see the light of day…….several Aust high levels on that list? red shoes, anyone?

    • And this has what again to do with economics – ???? – seems heaps of Christianiods [not to mention fellow members of the Tribe of Abraham (something about Camel jockeys)] were implicated …. so how does that square with the whole Satanist meme …

      For that matter you can “Research” heaps of stuff about the Founding Fathers or distribution logistics WRT slavery and how that correlates and for a cherry on top “Research” heaps of libertarian thoughts on kids selling themselves ….

      • interested partyMEMBER

        “And this has what again to do with economics – ????”

        Remember this…….you asked the question.

        As per the link below to footsore..
        The profit ….per year…of a typical trafficked child sold into sex slavery is between 200-250 thousand dollars. Per Year.
        Expected lifespan….seven years.
        Suicide rate….extremely high.
        Deaths from sickness and just giving up…….you guess.

        So……how do you launder the cash from such a lucrative ECONOMIC venture?

        Buy land/property through the “correct ” channels?
        Buy a super yacht?
        Private jet perhaps?
        How about an island?
        Maybe the favour of a select politician or two?
        How about a shltload of drugs?
        Shares……bonds…….etf’s…….precious metals……more kids………all pushed through an account in the caymans perhaps?

        Enough economics for you?

        No mention of the share price fallout when the ceo or entire board of some company gets caught up in this thing…..but no…..an argument about MMT is all you are happy with.

        Good grief…..some people.

      • Again this has noting to do with economics as far as wages or concrete material benefits for the population, which would end the oligarchical power that enables any kind of slavery – sexual or other wise. Which I might offer has more to do with mainstream economics during the neoliberal period and that which it takes notes from previously in history, seems you don’t grok the whole atomatistic individualism aspect of neoliberalism [waves at MPS] E.g. get your ancestor on and seek to maximize your individual utility [desires].

        You don’t seem to be able to reconcile how prevalent this was from founding fathers to the rest of anglophone history alone and then want to make it a totem pole to attach the emotive narrative your selling. I mean Trump is implicated in all this and has been accused of sexual impropriety, not to mention his partying ways long before and the crowds he hung out with. To say he has no knowledge or completely ignorant of what was going on all around him would indicate a cognitive defect that would challenge the most learning disabled.

        I saw it …. per se girls [especially] and some boys passed around in L.A. like toys and then your ilk has issues with me#too, my mother was raped more than once, my grandmother was before her whilst working in a shoe factory during the great depression after her husband died seeking work out of state, all due to lack of bargaining power. Then you and yours has the cheek to suggest that trump is the second coming and will right all the wrongs that ill society, after making packet doing just the opposite …. sigh …

        Its as bad as some around here thinking Malcolm would do the right thing because he had money ….

        I’ve yet to hear you even touch on basic economic policies which would promote social cohesion and limit oligarchical powers to use others as their desires want …

      • interested partyMEMBER

        OK
        Not economic enough for you. You are one sick dude.

        To use a little economic lingo….you are morally bankrupt…..but please feel free to have the usual last word…….I won’t respond. This is my last conversation with you; but not my last here at MB on this subject.

      • I don’t to morals grounded in antiquity by those with information dramas, ethics is more my bag due to evidence driving things …

        But if you must … I think ethically your support of Trump calls your so called morals into doubt considering his entire past.

      • I saw it …. per se girls [especially] and some boys passed around in L.A. like toys and then your ilk has issues with me#too, […]

        Yes, you only need to look at the attitudes of most of the QAnon (let alone “Pizzagate”, et al) crowd to most forms of sexual abuse and assault, and those who work against it. Combined with the hilariously transparent partisanship of the whole thing, the obvious conclusion that the “concern” about exploited children is mostly incidental (at best).

      • IP ….

        Here is a good one for you ….

        My guess is they’ll slow walk this until they can replace the whole damn sordid story with “outrage” at labor shortages and “irregularities” at MCC, which is run by the department of prisons, which is controlled by the department of justice, which is run by attorney general Bill Barr, who was appointed by Donald Trump, who said epstein was a nice guy in 2002, which means his death is Trump’s fault, which means he had something on Trump, which means Trump and Barr are trying to cover all this up.

        PS. MCC seems to have been functional enough to keep El Chapo Guzman alive long enough (over 2 years) to stand trial and be transferred to his final destination. Ditto for Paul Manafort as well as a number of other high “value” inmates.

        LMMAO~~~~~~

      • LOL … your still picking a side … chortle … news flash … it broaches both political spectrum’s or did you miss that corporations and their oligarchical owners bet on both sides during elections. That Epstein intermingled with all manner of of the elite set and then their is the knock back based on suggestions that he was an intel asset, not that intel internationally has used such individuals for getting dirt on people that it can leverage or anything …

        Mate I promote Sanders et al and have nothing for the Blue Dog DINO DNC camp, not to mention beautiful moments like when Bush Sr and Bill Clinton teamed up to help Haiti so the billion dollar sports garment industry would not take a loss …

        This is just the flip side to Russia gate where eyeballs and soft minds are distracted from looking at more core-fundamental socioeconomic matters in a bear pit scrap between factions.

        And since you seem to do all your “research” on youtube I would suggest – Howard Zinn: A People’s History of the United States

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTccJ1ndh0M

        In addition too that I would recommend – Agnotology: The Making and Unmaking of Ignorance by Robert N. Proctor (Editor),
        Londa Schiebinger (Editor)

        The book studies “ignorance”: the quantity of what isn’t known, the skill of creating ignorance for personal gain, the art and use of ignorance by corporations and the how people have been kept intentionally ignorant as a means of control. Which I would reference the advent of Bernays and people like Hayek and Friedman in pushing ideological propaganda as economics or science. I think I mention more than a few times the historical machinations behind concocting narratives is firstly to suspend disbelief, in the audience targeted, once that is accomplished the narrator can then indoctrinate the audience with the preferred reality via a few core mental anchor points – which can be used to manipulate their perspective of reality for – their – benefit.

        Kudos IP for taking the bait hook line and sinker … and then regurgitating it as a truism …

    • Keep it coming IP.
      No idea what to make of it all, but it’s fascinating.
      Appreciate your input.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Will do. Thanks for the support, some here find it uncomfortable…..I do wonder why.

    • It sickens me that the media report on the ‘suicide’ as total fact yet don’t even question anything at all like we’re meant to have full trust in them and believe it. Do some investigative journalism you lazy [email protected]#$.

    • I’ve been following this stuff for years in other places. I always look forward to your thoughts on what is actually going on

      • You know the dark web where everything is safe, because its not a honey pot or there’s no way that others could be manipulating it for whatever reasons ….

      • interested partyMEMBER

        LSWCHP…..
        Note the rubbish divisive postings of a few here?
        The dark web? LOL.
        Arkincide is real. The MSM are owned. The upper echelons of the law are owned. Whisleblowers attacked…JA….is typical.

        Who do you trust? Not the trolls above who push division. Anyone who takes part in this stuff should be shot….period. Anyone.
        Child trafficking is not a political persuasion……but those above wish to push that side for whatever reasons.

        Also note someone above proudly claims to have seen first hand the behaviour…..and what did he do about it?
        He claims “ethics” decades later……..how many kids have paid a price since then?, and all because those in the know sat back and did SFA. Some of this is on their heads, in my opinion.
        Maybe that’s why the shouting is so loud from that direction….guilt release?

      • IP …

        Being contra to your beliefs is not siding with the Clinton’s ninny …. I’ve been anti the Clinton’s since Bill was Governor and fully aware of their sordid past. In fact I think its quite funny that our Abbott and Bill both got the same scholarship.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Apologies LSWCHP for the mail…..this needs sorting out.

        skippie
        Never said you were a clintonista…..just took notes on you being aware of the criminality yet no mention of going to authorities or relevant people. You may have……here is your chance to clear the misconception…
        If no action was taken by yourself……..you, by not acting, are complicit.
        Clear enough?
        Trump could be described as being in the same situation……….except he now has the power to actually do something, which he is doing…in many peoples eyes. It is just convenient that there is a heavy political overtone to the process but look past that and you might see it ( through the fog of hate? )
        Now I await the next personal attack or wave of abuse…..fire at will.

      • IP

        You must live in some alternate reality because Trump saw the same stuff and did nothing, and he had the money and legal back up to protect himself. The best part is because it might effect his potential income and the personal blow back he would have received from other elites dirty laundry thrown out for the unwashed to see …. so he did nothing based on personal reasons based on money and social status …. so much for your pushing the morality meme …

        Your so out of your depth mate, pure arm chair rationalizations in a vacuum without a hint of sociology, social psychology, or personal observation. Put it this way people die for less, have their entire life permanently diminished, not to mention the blow back friends and family could cop.

        I think Vidal Gore made all this painfully clear back in the day ….

        And sometimes the only thing an individual without the resources can do – is too walk away – and not join the party, because some do and they leave their humanity at the door just for the chance of making it big [tm].

        LOL why do you think I decided to raise a family in Australia rather than in the U.S. especially when I would have made manifold the money … yet its said that were only 20 years behind our betters ….

      • Who do you trust? Not the trolls above who push division.

        LOL. From someone subscribed to the qanon and pizzagate conspiracies.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Now were getting somewhere…

        “You must live in some alternate reality because Trump saw the same stuff and did nothing, and he had the money and legal back up to protect himself. ”

        Same reality you just happened to be in…it seems. He did nothing…true. And you walked away. He now is making amends….you now attack him.

        “The best part is because it might effect his potential income and the personal blow back he would have received from other elites dirty laundry thrown out for the unwashed to see …. so he did nothing based on personal reasons based on money and social status …. so much for your pushing the morality meme …”

        I never claimed trump was a moral icon….you have painted me with that brush. I feel no concern from your supposition. At worst, trump could be allowing the practise to continue, but has chosen to do what he can. I don’t see it ending, just being pushed further underground. As you have said, and as I am well aware….indeed this has been going on since the beginning of humanity…..still doesn’t allow excuses for sitting on our hands/turning the blind eye. The power of the internet is helping shed light on some of these players.

        “Your so out of your depth mate, pure arm chair rationalizations in a vacuum without a hint of sociology, social psychology, or personal observation. Put it this way people die for less, have their entire life permanently diminished, not to mention the blow back friends and family could cop.”

        Well….hello……Why do the likes of the clintons have so much control?
        I get the process….just wanted to see where you fit into the field when you make statements about seeing stuff. I never assumed you were/are anything but logical/rational.

        “And sometimes the only thing an individual without the resources can do – is too walk away – and not join the party, because some do and they leave their humanity at the door just for the chance of making it big [tm].”

        I completely understand, and thanks for clearing the subject. I do have empathy for the situation you find yourself in…or did. I most likely would have done similar.
        Where to go from here…….do we just put up with the criminality and feed our kids to the predators….or do what one can? Talking about it and making others aware of the situation and realities is a step forward, in my eyes.

        “LOL why do you think I decided to raise a family in Australia rather than in the U.S. especially when I would have made manifold the money … yet its said that were only 20 years behind our betters ….”

        I think you did the right thing.
        I have no animosity towards you…..just some of the things you say need clarification at times….as do all of us. Even smithy.

      • IP ..

        Trumps actions with regard to labour rights and safety, environmental, neocon footsie, appointees, and a cornucopia of other actions does not support your claim that he’s in it for the vast majority of citizens, let alone flyover country [he is a coastal elite] and his so called base happens to be primary males with upper boundary income streams [frat boys comes to mind].

        Myself and others see him as more of a anarcho sort of capitalist where you make up the rules as you go and break contracts whenever you feel like it, because you think you have enough force to limit blow back and can weather what ever is thrown at you and come out the other side Triumphant [TM]. The effects on the unwashed is just part of the big game and such is life IBGYBG.

        The raging nepotism is my favorite anti social anti democratic umbrage …. and their use whilst as president … conducting business which get rewarded solely on that condition.

  4. This is too good not to post the whole thing.
    https://www.theonion.com/report-you-the-only-one-who-really-knows-what-happened-1837175949

    YOUR LOCATION—Confirming that everyone else had gotten it totally wrong, experts issued a report Monday indicating that you, and you alone, were the sole person who had correctly surmised what happened to Jeffrey Epstein. “Despite widespread speculation and numerous conflicting theories as to the truth behind Epstein’s apparent suicide in his jail cell, we have determined that you, the person currently reading this, are the only one to have arrived at the correct conclusion,” read the report in part, adding that your superior deductive reasoning skills and ability to think for yourself had prevented you from being suckered in like those other oblivious fools. “You are the only one who knows what’s actually going on here. While the rest of them are chasing the wrong leads and getting distracted by red herrings, you have cracked the case. Now the only question that remains: What are you going to do with the bombshell of the century?” At press time, sources issued a follow-up report confirming that the powers that be were onto you and you needed to leave your family and run.

  5. Ok cvnts – I took advice from wiser heads (all of you) and now collected even more profits. Now I have so much fat that existing shares have to drop by about 55% for me to lose money. Now I will take a stand and hold – see if I can turn 90k to 900k.
    btw – I have st conditional sales so I will not let them go lower than 40%.

    • Well done old chap. Nothing like walking into the comments section after a bit if successful trading. It really raises the spirits of one and all. Especially with everything thing else being nigh on unmentionable these days. I’ll have a gulp of the tempranillo on your behalf. Chin Chin.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Fair enough. You had a go, so no one should have a go at you. As someone really smart once said, no one ever went broke taking profits.

      I think it was skippy.

      • Back when I played the game I worked on a 75% uptick take, risk becomes twitchy beyond that bar … those that hold for the grand prize littler the floor and the few that do get it get fat heads and think themselves masters over everything else and act accordingly.

        But hay … after the 90s any one playing that does not understand the game is rigged and winning is more about scraps under the master table should seek professional help.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      “If anyone deprives an heir of his inheritance, Allah will deprive him of his inheritance in Paradise on the Day of Resurrection.” (Ibn Maja)

      • Imagine swapping out ‘inheritance’ for ‘franking credits’. Australia would be turning to Mecca in no time.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Here’s another one that Muhammad bloke supposedly said.

        “The best charity is that which is practiced by a wealthy person. And start giving first to your dependents.”

        I think I’ve found the mussie Macrobusiness site…

    • If you want to turn 90k in to 900k I recommend the next investment be gold shares (in real money).

      That said, in ‘unreal’ money you cannot lose by investing in any shares whatsoever.

      • happy to share screen with you Dom. I never hide when I take a hit too. SYR costed me fair bit last FY.

      • Gold is not “real” money any more that what law dictates it has including price, in fact gold was used in the past primarily so government could tax for war, because many commodities had short self lives – not to mention storage. Then again in antiquity one of the first measures of golds value was against grains of wheat E.g. the gold did not have a value based on the weight of the metal, but its comparison to something that did have intrinsic value.

        Then again those that practically worship gold [see antiquities use in religious iconography to denote rulers divine powers] have a propensity to be beholden to the barter theory in economics, not that it was concocted out of whole cloth and does not reflect the historical or anthropological record.

        See up thread on the term Agnotology: The Making and Unmaking of Ignorance.

      • Skip, you don’t like gold and you think it’s worthless. And that’s perfectly okay with me because apart from anything else, it’s your right to not only think what you wish but to say what you wish.

        But you need to consider this: your thoughts on the subject are irrelevant to the ultimate value of the metal because what matters is what the ‘market’ thinks of gold, not any individual. How many people have bleated at how worthless Bitcoin is (including me) and yet, all these years later it is trading at $10k+.

        That’s all that matters.

      • “Skip, you don’t like gold and you think it’s worthless.”

        Its not a matter of liking on not liking it Dominic, its understanding his factual history in toto and its relationship with humans E.g. its an inanimate object that has no agency thus only humans can give it special powers, be it religious devotion or state sanctioned status as a currency. Then one needs to reconcile what some states did in seeking it to forward national agendas or building empires. To top it all off what amount of environmental destruction was undertaken to get at the stuff the cheapest way possible, historic labour movements to facilitate its extraction, and the negative effects that’s had on humanity and the environment.

        As far as the market goes its quite narrow as an asset class and the rule of thumb has been no more than 10% allocation in ones portfolio. Golds price adjusted to other asset classes over a long time line is quite flat, with occasional spikes and busts, hence timing is critical when to take price. Additionally anyone seeking to profit huge sums without any labour or invention by purely holding the stuff can’t really grip about RE sorts collecting large amounts of yield for polishing or temporarily holding onto a depreciating consumable for financial gain – see migs dilemma with crypto and then some bang on about the FIRE sector … eh …

        But yeah capitalism …

      • You’re grossly overthinking this. Gold has been money for more than 5,000 years. People have tried everything in this period and come back to gold every time. Gold is genuinely valuable given its scarcity and its quantity and physical qualities make it a perfect candidate to act as money. You can cook up some quasi-intellectual argument against it but it makes no difference — the market has decided. There is nothing more democratic than the market as it is an informal voting system. Governments decided some time ago to ‘de-monetize’ gold because they desperately wanted a system that they could corrupt, a system that served their purposes. They wanted money to spray around to their mates, they wanted to build expensive armies, have welfare systems that they could use to purchase votes through. Gold would have denied them all this because gold is incorruptible — you cannot it at will. It needs to be earned.

        On which note, hoarding gold is merely a way of storing one’s past earnings. There is no obligation to invest one’s past earnings in the economy at all — that is simply one’s labor in storage. Of course, if one wanted to grow one’s wealth one would have to invest in productive endeavours.

      • Dominic ….

        No over thinking it, just facts that can be established and corroborated by by more rigorous methods than the deductive processes of ideological group think or ad hoc cut and paste revisionism by sellers. On the last bit, its curious don’t you think that anyone would sell gold as a dealer or owner after preaching the unlimited potential for yield or the sanctity of its powers to store value or price against all other assets to others. Don’t you find that a bit anti rational agent Homo economicus to do so when one could have it all to themselves.

        BTW I would recommend the book ‘5000 years of Debt’ to gain a more realistic view on the period you reference, seems you negate the whole plethora of credit tools used globally during and before that time. I would remind that in any case it was always the administration of what ever system that invariably causes dramas and not some intrinsic quality of the system as both can be abused.

        Remember don’t ascribe commodity money thinking like QTM to Fiat or the other way around – its apples and oranges and skews the results. Here I’ll make it simple … if you invest commodity money badly the outcome will reflect that, same can be said of Fiat.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Ruh roh

      “And those who hoard gold and silver and spend it not in the way of Allah – give them tidings of a painful punishment.” (Quran 9:34).

    • I’m a very conservative investor that’s why I went all in on BTC recently. Nah j/k. My investments have taken years to build up. I’m sure I could have made wayyy more money being less risk adverse but easy come, easy go. So I try not to get greedy.

    • I’m a shitload better off since I moved my super out of equities in early July. Or rarher a little better off, instead of losing tens of thousands, which is just fine by me.

      Enjoy your profits.

      • my super is 50% cash and 50% conservative which is half cash anyway. when crash comes I will move cash into equities and leave conservative as it is.

  6. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Let’s have a quiz. According to old Hummie, what’s the worst sin apart from the 54 major ones like poking fun at old Hummie and not jihading when it’s in fashion? Hint: it’s something discussed here every day.

    • – Working PAYG.
      – Not having a family trust.
      – Meeting your obligations as an employer.
      Am I close?

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        No, but the bottle is empty so the quiz is closing early.

        “It is narrated by Abu Musa Ashari that the Prophet said: After the major sins which must be avoided, the greatest sin is that someone dies in a state of debt and leaves behind no asset to pay it off.” (Darimi)

        I think we’ve found a loophole. The way I read that is you can’t go around jihading and lopping of heads if you’re in negative equity. If you get the chop and the sale of the house doesn’t cover your debts then no paradise for you. Who is going to run into battle for no paradise? Nobody, that’s who. Falling house prices stops jihadis. Oh sure, they might run around yelling a bit to avoid the major sin of running away from battle but a serious attack? Not. Gonna. Happen.

        Falling house prices can stop terrorism. You read it here first,

      • So if you get ’em young and sign them up to a death pledge everything is peachy?
        Bring back 110% Loan to Valuation Ratios! If you are really radicalised then perhaps you may need 160% LVR just to keep you in check for a bit longer.

    • What a….what a….I dunno what he is….I’m not often lost for words, but today is the day.

      Wait…no…here it comes…

      I’d shoot him (with a .22, to minimise ammo expenses) and feed him to the pigs.

  7. Mr RobertsMEMBER

    Mining bogan- my sister is going to sell her block in cairns overlooking heaps of boomers. I would love so much it you could buy it and play good music to them all day, all night. It’s so sick, my sister uncovered a spring while doing earth works; could bottle the stuff and pay off the block. I’ll post a link once it goes up for sale in a few weeks. (Gav, worth having a scope too.)

      • Mr RobertsMEMBER

        The only reson I mention it is because from a pure valuations perspective, the value is derived from relative sales in the area. From a valuers perspective, it doesn’t matter if you have a spring, or rediculous views; it goes on what the next door neighbours property sells for. There are good bargains to be had. My sister has 5 kids and would really disturb the neighbourhood; she can’t live there and is just going to sell it. The three d’s. death divorce, d bank manager.

      • All god mate, I appreciate it. If I had my way I’d have left Australia already or moved Interstate away from the Bubble madness that is Sydney/Melbourne.. Might have moved up the Coast line, or Adelaide/Perth/Freemantle or maybe even Wollongong/Newcastle areas.

        Shame family won’t move away, I kind of loathe Melbourne now. What it’s become in the last 5 years in particular. I used to love living there early 2000s.