Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

A much better day here in Asia as Yuan stabilises and risk sentiment improves from overnight markets. The commodity proxy currencys – Aussie and Kiwi – are in recovery mode as well, but interestingly, bond markets remain somewhat spooked with Treasury yields reaching a new low again.

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite is finally playing catchup, bouncing nearly 1% higher to 2794 points while the Hang Seng Index is putting a similar lift, up 0.7% to 26186 points. This keeps it  above the January lows at 25000 points and finally putting in a new daily high, but still in trouble:

Japanese share markets are up slightly with the broader TOPIX stalling while the Nikkei 225 lifted by 0.3% to 20593 points, taking back the previous session losses. The USDJPY pair remains anchored at the 106 handle throughout the session with a descending triangle forming on the four hourly chart again, as it remains unable to clear a lot of resistance overhead:

The ASX200 was again one of the best movers despite a higher Aussie dollar, lifting 0.7% higher to 6568 points. The Australian dollar has also comeback after previously falling in sympathy with the Kiwi, cut down by a very dovish RBNZ yesterday, with the former now threatening the 68 handle in a strong swing move higher:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are strengthening even more, currently up at least 1% going into the European open with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing a tentative bottom as it bounces off 2800 points and heads for the 2900 point barrier:

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in the northern hemisphere tonight, so focus will be on bond markets as always.


    • The Traveling Wilbur

      The first rule of the Banking Royal Commission is that no one talks about the Banking Royal Commission recommendations’ implementation(s) delivering absolutely nothing of substance to save bank customers from predators.

      • The first rule of the banking royal commission is that you don’t have a banking royal commission. The second rule of the banking royal Commission is that should the first rule be broken you don’t implement any of the suggestions from the banking royal commission. The third rule is get a new comms team and torture the public with advertising campaigns that make them wish that we they lived in a barter economy.

      • The first rule of the banking royal commission is that you – normalize the corruption – as natural [tm] … and anything that screws with the “natural order” of things will send you and yours assets back to the stone age ….

    • Not surprised Hayne treat Fraudentreasurer for the cvnt he is. Hayne knew the RC was a dud with his name attached to it.

      • hang on buster..hayne accepted the commission knowing it was a dud? he was sold a pup!
        hayne walked into a minefield…check his incredulous queries of regulatory personnel.

        hayne was /is a fckn naif wrt FIRE sector

    • 6 to a house!

      So they come here in 2009, bribe professors to get “degrees”, get a bridging visa and drive for Uber for 10 years while the fake left says “job guarantee”.

      • ‘6 to a house’ / Indian nationals
        Doubt it.
        That’s only being stated to protect the landlord owner – inevitably a Chinese or Indian PR from investigation in the cash in hand subletting.

        It will be a modest little Australian established dwelling out in Mulgrave, the Aussie tenants evicted & on the street as homeless – while the place is packed full of Indian lowlife with visa alibis living & working illegally.

        It will be a least 10 or more Indians.
        Each paying $150 or so for the bunk share, bag of rice toilet roll & wifi deal.
        The street full of their old bombs or Uber cars.
        The landlord pulling in 10 x $150 or $1,500 a week cash rent – but only 6 or less Indians on the lease as ‘legal occupancy’ .
        And only $400 a week rent actually declared.
        And the proxy owner claiming negative gearing as a kicker.

        It’s systemic.
        We have 2.561 million TR / SCV – almost all third world unskilled lowlife.
        Over 2.3 million of 90% or rent in ‘private shared accommodation*’.
        On top of that 1.9 million PR, with 1.4 million or 75% who rent as third world unskilled poor in ‘Private shared accommodation*’
        Plus at any one time over 440,000 long stay Chinese, south East Asian, Indian, Bangladeshi etc as long stay ‘tourist / visitors’ also living & working illegally ‘renting in you guessed it ‘private shared accommodation*’

        *The ABS code for migrant slumshare.

        That’s 4.1 million non citizens, migrant guestworkers with 90% in Sydney & Melbourne.

        Lets say it’s only 6 migrant guestworkers per dwelling.
        Twice the average Australian occupancy ratio.

        -> That’s 683,000 modest Australian established dwellings now bought with foreign criminal dirty money via a PR proxy to avoid the FIRB, and run as cash in hand migrant only slumshare.
        Where do the MB readers think all the migrant guestworkers live? And how? These people are dirt poor, in debt, working illegally, multiple jobs, cash in hand to repay the foreign agent procurer debt and to send back remittances.
        Cash back or loan relief from the agent procurer if they secure a PR, as they can then ‘sponsor’ & be an anchor for more chain migration of their third world burden.

        The migrant guestworker illegal housing economy.

        Say the average migrant guestworker only pays $150 a week for the bunk / bag of rice / toilet roll & wifi deal.

        That’s 4.1 million migrant guestworkers etc as a one x $150 weekly cash rent x 52 weeks = $32 billion.

        And only a fraction of that is declared – less than half.
        Illegal occupancy, false rent declaration (legal occupancy or minimum rent) and over $15 billion is taken as direct cash no tax paid – split between the onshore proxy & the foreign criminal syndicates who fund it all.

        Let’s also examine the intake quality.

        This Indian rapist is fairly typical of what’s being allowed in and the visa / COE churn pathway.

        9 years in Australia, working & living illegally, unskilled useless parasite – exploiting our totally broken visa system & border control.
        Excerpt (my comments in brackets)

        “Singh (an unskilled Indian adult trafficked in from an Indian slum to the Melbourne Indian slum) was on a bridging visa at the time of the attack, awaiting approval of his application for permanent residency after his student visa had expired.” (Yep…)

        “Mr Newton said Singh had originally moved to Australia in 2009 and worked at a string of car washes at Doncaster, Nunawading and Bulleen before beginning to drive (illegally) Ubers in late 2016.”
        Not uncommon.
        Not an exception.
        Not exploited.
        Not a vulnerable Indian student that was taken advantage of.
        A violent dangerous criminal Indian that was trafficked in by agent procurers, lived & worked illegally here on a visa pretext – and then raped a vulnerable woman.

        He gets deported.
        He will re enter on fake ID / fake health check, or via the NZ SCV loophole – and be back in Australia again.
        Bet on it.

    • Quite an impressive work resume listed in the article. Unfortunately not what anyone would describe as a successful migration (and that’s not even referencing his sex crime), he was surviving but not thriving. One wonders how many Indianbrides get a horrible surprise when they find out that their Aussie Indian hubbie is not the professional high flyer they professed to be if this guys work history is in any way representative of a significant proportion of male Indian student migrants

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      “Singh was on a bridging visa at the time of the attack, awaiting approval of his application for permanent residency after his student visa had expired.

      Mr Newton said Singh had originally moved to Australia in 2009 and worked at a string of car washes at Doncaster, Nunawading and Bulleen before beginning to drive Ubers in late 2016.
      He also delivered pizzas for Crust in Richmond before his arrest.”

      Why are we handing out these Bridging visas with work rights in the first place!
      That list of jobs are the kind of jobs employers should be competing with each other to get young citizens to do.
      No wonder we’ve got all this race to the bottom wage stagnation.

      • Yep, I was thinking exactly the same thing. My first job was Pizza delivery, horrendous job really. Paid more in car repairs than I got back in wages. But it was a job. Second job was working in a Video Store (Video Busters in Caulfield, sadly Netflix killed off that industry). Both are jobs that no young people would get now. Vibrants beating them to it and technology making the other redundant.

  1. if buying puts and the gov bails out the company so shares don’t fall as far as they should. Would the holders of the Put Options be compensated? Thinking WBC and CBA.

  2. haroldusMEMBER

    On a scale of 1-Josef Fritzl, how bad is hand feeding the daughter while she plays minecraft, to make sure she eats?

    She’s 7.

    Also, you know who gives children a bad name?

    The Beckhams.

    • You’d make it into an American daytime gawk show. It’s probably too early for you to have turned her into an adversary, so not Springer. Sally Jesse, Donahue or early Oprah. If she overcomes this and gets her life back on track then she can go on late Oprah all by herself.

    • Harry – I’ve more or less been there, so I can say with the full weight of authority … yep pretty bad!

    • She’ll probably instigate legal action against you simply for mentioning it to the crew on MB. Never tell her that you did this.

    • Dad, I remember like it was yesterday, had a very heavy hand. I know that we used to feel it’s weight when we’d get slapped behind our necks for being the little darlings that we were.

      Also, he had one saying: “this is not a democracy, at best it’s a benevolent dictatorship… now, you will do as I say, for as long as you live under my roof”

      And sure as hell, I agree with that. We were a couple of demons and boy, we needed to be thumped hard.

      • The faulty algorithm will run quick smart on that beast.
        Or, they need that computing power for an upcoming federal ICAC. It would take a month of continuous comping to just get through the Nationals.

  3. How would Rudd know whether China is rigging their currency when they never release data on the composition of their FX reserves.