Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A mixed day is better than an across the board selloff with shares here in Asia putting in scratch sessions and some advances. The RBNZ has surprised all with a double cut at its interest rate meeting, sending both Kiwi and Aussie falling to new record lows, while gold has put in another big bid for another new record high.

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite continues to fall, albeit at a slower rate, closing 0.3% lower at 2768 points while the Hang Seng Index has put in a scratch session, losing only a handful of points, closing at 25959 points. This keeps it just above the January lows at 25000 points but nowhere near out of trouble:

Japanese share markets have done similarly, with the Nikkei 225 off by 0.3% to 20516 points, just holding on as Yen stabilises. Indeed, the USDJPY pair has been anchored at the 106 handle again, unable to clear a lot of resistance overhead:

The ASX200 was the best mover today helped along by the much lower Aussie dollar, launching 0.6% higher to 6519 points. The Australian dollar fell in sympathy with the Kiwi which was cut down by the surprised double cut by the RBNZ today, sending both antipodean currencies to new yearly lows:

S&P and Eurostoxx futures are coming back slightly, up about 0.2% going into the European open with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing a tentative bottom as it bounces off 2800 points, but this is early days yet:

The economic calendar has two releases to watch out for tonight, namely the German industrial production print for July then the latest DOE oil inventory numbers.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. So it begins. Specufestor setting up GoFundMe because she made a stupid purchase. The delicious irony is her mother was the REA and told her not to bother doing any checking of anything! LOL! You can’t make this sh1t up!

    Ms Campbell yesterday described the unusual circumstances around her purchase. “Sadly, the agent was my mum. She did not warn me whatsoever about the difficulties I might face getting finance,” she said.

    “I was informed that it was highly likely the value of the apartment would increase significantly, and the equity would compensate for the low deposit. I was also informed that alternatively, I could on-sell at a gain. This was a fallacy.”

      • Battle of Bosworth by any chance? I really like that wine, the organic/preservative free was unknown when I first purchased as the price was right. Turned out to be a good purchase and actually opened my eyes to organic wines.

    • Fisted by her own mother… shut-ins, I believe this qualifies for ‘Wincest of the year’ award

      • From Gav’s link further down….

        She also said that her mother had pushed her into signing an unconditional contract, meaning Ms Sarreal would receive a commission payment.

        ‘I believe she was pushing to get the sale done. She did make a commission from it. She didn’t want to jeopardise the sale,’ Ms Campbell said.

        Sounds like a classy mother. Talk about eating your young.

      • We live in that kind of world:
        – lose your job, the Govt’s got your back
        – your unit block cracks the taxpayer gets the bill
        – the bank you have your money goes t!ts up, the taxpayer’s there for you

        How can anyone make a considered decision about anything in an environment where you don’t get hosed for your dumb actions.

    • That takes the biscuit.
      Shafted by your mum who is your real estate agent. Now “prepared” to sell the unit for the contract price you agreed to 2 years ago.
      And if that doesn’t work you are trying to get complete strangers to donate money over the internet to help you settle.
      You could make it up but no one would believe you.

    • That is actually really sad. Not only has she lost her father, and subsequently her fathers inheritence but her mothers financial advice is conflicted.

      Oh studied acting… Done a couple of short films including some unpaid work. Can Reusa or anyone tell me what is a Barefoot casting clinic?

      • To be fair, her mother’s probably dumb as dogsh!t and probably another (of millions) of people that thinks that you can’t loose in real estate. I despair for the human race

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      It’s a shame, that so many innocent stupid people will need to suffer now so that far far greater numbers of people will not be made to suffer so later.

      gofundme? I can think of another ‘f’ word there. And it ain’t facilitate, fun or felate me.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Oh. Nearly forgot.

      She should sue.

      Yep. Her mum. For providing improper financial advice in relation (heh) to her role in the transaction as a licensed real estate agent. I am assuming she did not have a financial services licence at the time of the transaction.

      The insurer of the company her mum was working for will pay. It’ll be fine.

      • LOL Timmeh, I was thinking the same thing. $600k too.. no wonder we’re all in so much trouble. In the 60’s those were the kinds of homes being given to people as social housing. We turned them from something people don’t want to live in, into something that costs $500-$600k.

        Park Towers in South Melbourne is near where my mum lives.

        ‘We’re living in fear every day’: Inside the squalid housing commission block in Melbourne where residents are confronted with blood-splattered lifts, used syringes and violent drug addicts

      • Yup, future slums. This one just got knocked down near me. Used to call it “suicide towers” SBS even did a doco on it.

        It was supposed to be the revolutionary utopian future of public housing within suburban Perth.

        With an in-house grocery store, day care centre, chemist, hairdresser — and a school and swimming pool next door — the twin 10-storey complex of Brownlie Towers in the suburb of Bentley stood as the centrepiece of a carefully curated neighbourhood full of gardens and open space.

        Then, to the horror of planning officials, it quickly disintegrated into a hotbed of crime, becoming synonymous with murders, suicides, violence and drug abuse.

        “It was a slum, it was a ghetto — that’s exactly what it was,”

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Nah. Yeah, nah. Daughter won’t be at Christmas lunch (too busy working her shift at the local BP).

  2. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Rose’s are red
    Violets are blue
    When I listen to the Stones
    The neighbours do too

    Today was a good day.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Cricket? Nah, day late.
      40mill? Nah, not posting.
      A visit from Mary Jane, some fishing and a nice red. That’s my bet.

      Was red a first or second language speaker?

    • Ooooooh, I love a good rumour!

      HSBC is the strangest beast. I like to think I have a good handle on banks but HSBC I’ve never understood.

      As an aside they settled a Mexican drug money laundering case a while back and paid a billion dollar plus fine so who knows …

      • Any idea how the HSBC London parent, HSBC HK child, non-guaranteed subsidiary works? Have never understood how that works, or who it benefits.

        Good luck getting through both Brexit, and HKexit without something breaking. Could easily turn into a nasty custody battle. Or perhaps it already has started.

      • cee, watching a Kyle Bass interview someone here posted a while back, apparently they are all ringfenced. So supposedly separate entities.

      • Cee, yes Timmeh is right. Businesses in each jurisdiction are effectively their own separate entity. It has to be that way to prevent losses in one country causing issues in another. They might share branding and strategy etc but risk & regulatory capital are separate.

    • Well it’s working – A 55yo mate rang asking how to get onto the Indian Coal train today via the ASX……. This bloke’s bread had always landed butter side up so I can’t wait to see what he comes up with.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        The story in Qld is that after the ‘success’ of Adani, the state gov is being besieged by other *Indian* companies looking to open new mines to fill domestic demand. No idea if the reports are true. But it is very specific and widely reported news.

      • Canavan’s going to visit India in late August to meet with potential investors, & Fitzgibbon of the ‘opposition’ has backed his play, citing concerns for our weak/ailing economy as the pressure point if we don’t keep expanding exports….. Pay both ‘sides’ & get whatever you want?

      • But weakening world economies require lot less electricity so coal prices are expected to fall long way from where they are now – if there is global recession.

      • Just being facetious, fellas. We live in interesting times.

        I just get the feeling things are about to take a turn for the absolute worse. I mean, really bad.

        2020 … will go down in notoriety. And all the years subsequent to that 😉

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I cannot believe I’m going to be the first one on MB to say this:

        India is a burgeoning economy with a myriad of infrastructure issues, foreign FX income (various channels) and some super-elite-wealthy oil and gas moguls. Think getting rid of the influence of that kind of character is hard here, or in Russia? Try India. They haven’t even been able YET to gouge the local populaces (plural) for the income from the kind of infrastructure spending someone obviously has planned *before renewables become so easy to install and maintain that the coal spend window is closed forever*. Those rich Indians are going to have a go. Before they can’t. If their government obliges, they don’t even have anything to lose.

        Apologies if someone beat me to this. Either way, as 4×8 (heh) would say, it looks like my training is complete and I’m ready to ascend to greater powers with the darkside of the force.

    • Dumbing down of the education system is working splendidly. It now a case of who can exploit the mass dumb as fvck populace wins the prize.

    • that’s nothing mate. For first time in my life I own 1 000 000 shares in one company. RIM @ 0.003c. lol

      • I’m not getting a good feeling about this one. But worth a flyer in a frantic gold market. The potential is yuuuuuge!

      • Dom.. that’s the reason and the management.. all come with not too bad pedigree. Ex BHP, Ex Extrata, the Geologist who was involved in the discovery of Cowal (was team leader) and the Geologist who discovered the Sorpresa ( ok this is not really a world class but the guy knows the local geology and that counts for something). The mix just feels right and with spec stocks that is all one can do.
        This management just does not come across as bunch who just want to hang around to draw wages. But who knows.
        If they get Sorpresa off the ground they will not need to do raise more capitol as plan is to produce 10k ounces per year.

        An idea to put some funds together (few of us from here) and fund couple of deeper RC holes (or extend the depth of the 4 they plan to drill) might be worth the risk. Especially if they are right and the rock is Ordovician.

        A chance to become millionaires.. Think about.. we will be like pirates on the Black Perl mate.. free to dck around for rest of our lives.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Evidence suggests there’s many many millionaires on here already then. Just sayin’.

      • TTW, this isn’t Whirlpool forums! Nik, we’d last about 3 years before liver sclerosis got us! And the spambot would have a meltdown.

      • TTW – think about.. MSM reporting – “Bunch of shutins, loosers and ugly renters are Australia’s newest billionaires due to the discovery of new Cadia size orebody”.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Pretty sure every MB commenter is looking for their own special orebody.

        Only a very few literally.
        Reusa already has his.

      • “A chance to become millionaires.. Think about.. we will be like pirates on the Black Perl mate.. free to dck around for rest of our lives.”

        The epitaph of a day trader or little lebowski [oligarch] urban achiever … sigh …

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    BTW thank you thank you thank you RBNZ.

    That’s another .25+ wiped off AUS bond yields over the next two weeks.

      • Wow. Can that trend continue? US Fed has more room to cut than we do…

        I’m starting to worry about how to hedge my heavy USD exposure. I don’t want to bring my money back to Aus yet. But if the Fed starts to let rip with cuts then DXY could fall a lot and hurt me. What are the options?

        Just long US 10 year bonds, or long gold? Those positions seem so crowded… and expensive…

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Speaking of:

        In 2008, Young competed in the television program Gone Country 2, which included a competition in a celebrity demolition derby at the Henry County Fairgrounds in Paris, Tennessee. Young went on to win the celebrity derby heat and then went on to compete against 21 professional demolition derby drivers. Young finished in fourth place.

        Not surprised.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        If I knew the answer to those questions…

        Anywho… for my money it’s the first and only (almost) thing I learned from HnH’s posts that matters here.

        IO. If the price of that keeps dropping, and it’s cratered this last 7 days, you’re fine. USD side of the equation doesn’t matter as much. If you want a track of where DXY could go, look at DXY value 2 years ago.

        My bet… you hold USD in Aus while there’s a trade war on that China’s losing, you’re fine. If things go hot anywhere, you’re gold.

        Only downside… China wins trade war. Don’t see that happening. And RBNZ just cut 50 basis points unexpectedly. WTF more do you want? 😉

      • OK – back to first principles, keep it simple – and thus it makes sense. Thanks.

        Had quite a few T bills mature yesterday so trying to figure out where to put that cash.

      • Yet some ignore the U.K. serving itself up for pillage …. in the near term … chortle ….

  4. Is there anything worth watching on TV? I’m travelling for work so it’s my chance to take advantage of what the box had to offer.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      SBS World Movie channel?

      Failing that, iView something. Endeavour (last season) is perfectly bingeable.

    • You’re travelling and you’re not exploring the local massage parlours? Reus will be disappointed

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Nah, that channel 9 secondary-channel with all the failed auctions isn’t broadcast anymore. Good thinking though.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        In all seriousness, there is this 9-life show that does exceptional period house renos. In the style of the original interiors and exteriors. Some of them are outstanding jobs. Nothing cheap. Not on daily. Don’t remember name. Presenter looks like a Mountie with his hat. Even when not wearing it.

        And you are a dirty dirty little investor. You’re staying in the corner until you’ve learned your lesson.

  5. Watching some vibrant PR candidate on ABC trying to say he won’t be a burden on medicare in the future despite his genectic condition. And won’t we think of his poor daughter wjo is dinky di after 5 years here, Sorry mate, too sad, jog on.

      • Heh heh! Love it.

        Actually my buys are not really a contrarian indicator, but … gold right now…. jeez, I get that it’s screaming upwards but buying at the highs isn’t my usual style. Not sure I can handle the sleepless nights!

      • if everyone starts cutting gold has long long way to go. If 3-4 more countries cut over the next 2 days it will be on.

      • Don’t do it, Timmeh.

        They have eyes in the sky now. Drones. They’ll know where it’s stashed.

        If you must do it, put up a tent or a pergola first. Pretend you’re having a camping trip. Or a BBQ. Real relaxed, like.

    • If you mean the Australian Government’s AAA rating – I think the ratings agencies have said sending the budget into massive deficit would do it.

      If you are talking about corporate bonds or RMBSs … fark knows, but basically after the horse has already bolted.

    • We will be in recession before they even realise they should downgrade us. Useless cvnts I have no idea what they get paid for.

      • To gently pat the heads of the sheep and cows so they don’t realise the bullet is coming, I think.

    • Huh? it’s been under that since lunch time … wait are you still drinking since lunch time?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Lordy let me find the strength…

      OK, .6744 is the magic number, and yes, it’s been under that… but it started dropping from under that earlier AT THE SAME TIME as yields and us futures (s&p et al) started collapsing. Poo is now flushing and 2yr Aud bond is going to start with .6 very shortly.

      What was on earlier is now just generally exploding.
      It is popcorn time.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Aus 2yr just cracked .7. 10yr just cracked .9 again.

        Tissue please. (though that’s partly us equity futures related TBH – thank you Donald)